Quite fascinating. I have looked into a bit further.
This Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is very important.
Erdogan is between a rock and a hard place. I don't think he can ever really join the EU because to join the EU you have to share the "values" of the EU and some of those values go against traditional, conservative Islamic style values.
The EU is becoming a liberal club and Putin has changed the Soviet system into a traditional, conservative style system with a rebirth of religion - Orthodox Christianity. In Putin's worldview, he will not try to change your "values", he respects traditional values and diversity and religions.
Turkey has liberals but it also has a large religious, traditional, islamic element. Erdogan cannot follow all of the liberal values of the EU, but he can fit with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation because that group represents traditional values and does not seek to change the culture, beliefs or values of any of its members. So I think in the long run, Erdogan has nowhere else to go.
But, the West cannot lose Turkey because it is far too important and is in a strategic military position in the world. Therefore, Erdogan will have to go. But who can they replace him with? Liberals are noty strong enough to lead the entire country. Only the military could lead, but you can't join the EU if the military is in charge. So there is no easy solution.
"Upon the question, “Why do you wait for the EU to divorce you? Let us file for divorce,” the prime minister pointed out that there were established relations with the EU that yielded returns and stated, “It would not be correct to take such a step without preparing an alternative.”
Then he referred to the advancement of relations with Middle Eastern and African countries, saying, “There, these should continue. There should be a full preparation, all the stones should be in place,” when defining the preparation process before the step of divorce.
These words of Erdo?an demonstrate that he also considers the “common values” dimension of the deal: “We told them we would join. We told them, ‘If you summon us, we will come.’ Pakistan and India also want us. They demand it; we will all see together. In terms of population, it would exceed them [the EU]. Also, we would have the opportunity to be together with countries we share common values with .”
www.hurriyetdailynews.com/our-new-foreign-policy-target-the-shanghai-five.aspx?pageID=238&nID=40076&NewsCatID=428
It is all about "values". the EU and the West have been stupid in trying to enforce liberal values on countries that do not want them. In the end, it will alienate large portions of the world, the ones with the largest populations.
Here is an article by Daniel Pipes, who is quite an influential thinker and wrote the book about "conspiracy theories" which he sees as being wrong and having no merit.
"Recent steps taken by the Government of Turkey suggest it may be ready to ditch the NATO club of democracies for a Russian and Chinese gang of authoritarian states."
But it is his last sentence that is really important and may indicate what is really going on.
"Turkish steps toward joining the Shanghai group highlights Ankara's now-ambivalent membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , starkly symbolized by the unprecedented joint Turkish-Chinese air exercise of 2010. Given this reality, Erdo?an's Turkey is no longer a trustworthy partner for the West but more like a mole in its inner sanctum. If not expelled, it should at least be suspended from NATO
www.danielpipes.org/12526/turkey-shanghai-five-sco
I think that is why Erdogan will be toppled. But who will take his place?
"the SCO has received minimal attention in the West, although it has grand security and other aspirations, including the possible creation of a gas cartel . More, it offers an alternative to the Western model, from NATO, to democracy, to displacing the U.S. dollar as reserve currency
All of these things are similar to what is going on with Russia, with Ukraine, with China and the threat to Western hegemony. I think Turkey is part of the Great Game and that is why Erdogan will probably be toppled at some point.
