Brecon by-election

[Oakenbeach]

I think today’s vote is critically important in determining how Brexit plays out.... LDs remain odds-on favourites, but with BJ apparently enjoying a bounce as many Brexit Party supporters are tempted back, it’s no certainty. The outcome could well determine how Brexit plays out and the future of this country for the next decade or more.... it really is that important!

1. If Tories win, then it’s almost assured we’ll have a no-deal. If the LDs can’t win in these circumstances in this seat, the chances of the Tories winning an autumn GE seem very high, and if I were contemplating a VONC, I’d definitely have second thoughts. A no-deal is bad enough, a no-deal followed by 5 years of BJ is horrifying... This would crush Remainer spirits...
   
   
2. LDs win between 0 and 10%.... They’ll get positive news stories from it, but they’ll be a bit disappointed deep down, and the prospects for being serious contenders for many seats somewhat dented.
   
   
3. LDs win by between 10 and 20%.... LDs would be happy with this. A solid victory which sets them up well moving forward. Tories would worry, thinking that their vote could well not be strong enough in a GE. It may even cause a softening of their approach.
   
   
4. LDs win by over 20%... LDs would be ecstatic and Tories deeply worried. If they lost like this even after a BJ bounce, then what are their prospects. It would embolden potential Tories prepared to vote down the Government. The Tories lose the ensuing GE and a new Government is installed with a significant LD component. Brexit unravels and A50 is revoked in 2020.
   
   Which will it be? No predictions from me... I’ll only jinx it.

[Oakenbeach]

If Labour were to come out as 100% remain the Lib Dems would be history (again).

This is a fallacy I believe... Firstly, Labour Remainers seem to be unable or unwilling to recognise that a significant number of their potential voter base and members voted Leave. Any move to emulate the LDs would further alienate this group and cause a schism in the party.

Secondly it would be too little, too late. Who would trust Corbyn if he did this? Corbyn is now toxic, and I believe Labour will be annihilated at a GE, outflanked on all sides with a deeply popular Leader. They’ll keep their inner city seats, but lose everywhere else. If they get more than 150 seats, I’d be surprised.

[Oakenbeach]

I know, that was kind of my point. That their sudden upsurge is a good indicator of public opinion shifting

I don’t think it’s shifting, just realigning to parties that better reflect their views.