Free trade agreement.

[Corcory]

People keep going on about the fact that we can't be in the single market without agreeing to freedom of movement but why can't we negotiate a free trade agreement like the other countries in the world that are not in the EU?

[Bearbehind]

The problem is that they can't because they don't have a fecking clue what anything is going to look like.

[Peregrina]

Let's see of EU will kick Swiss out of the bi-laterals next March

Oops. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/swiss-mps-to-ignore-voters-on-migrant-curb-bpvmflsf3
Swiss MPs to ignore voters on migrant curb.
Swiss parliament is set to defy voters and water down proposals to curb immigration in an effort to preserve its trade ties with the EU.

[topsy777]

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/06/swiss-eu-standoff-striking-similarities-uk-predicament

A longer and not behind pay wall version of the above. It is not as simple as you put it.

[Peregrina]

Nice try topsy. I didn't 'put it' at all, it was a direct quote from the Times and I am not prepared to pay to get behind the pay wall to read the rest. Yes, the situation is more nuanced, but the point is that Switzerland is the one which blinked first. So the Swiss compromise or hold a second referendum.

And note especially, [emphasis mine]:
but has already been ejected from the EU’s science research programme, Horizon2020, and the Erasmus student exchange programme.
Which is what many of us expect to happen in this country. But hey, we are only scientists, nerdy types, so we don't count.

But this won't happen to us, because we are big and important and are The British Empire, on which the sun never sets. What's that, you say? The sun has set on it? Go on, you're pulling my leg.

[topsy777]

You get too excited when a news headline appears to support your bias. You could have done a little more digging to find out the truth behind the 6 lines or so you were allowed to read.

Daily Express spun this as EU blinking. The Swiss now wants a differential treatment to EU nationals in the job market. Factual reporting on this is available on Bloomberg.

The second referendum is organised by SVP and is not what you think. Try reading the Guardian link again.

However, I must say I admire the Swiss who are very creative and try to seek compromise in a very difficult matter. They don't just hold their hands up and say, let's us give in to the EU or our economy will be destroyed. Something we should aspire to.

[Mistigri]

I don't think there is really any discrepency between that Times headline and the Guardian article, from which I've taken these two paragraphs:

Any “major concession” by the EU, which has not budged from its stance that Switzerland must respect free movement rules or lose trade benefits, was plainly “unrealistic” following Britain’s exit vote, the justice minister Simonetta Sommaruga told the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.

Switzerland’s relations with the EU are governed by a set of multiple bilateral treaties that give it privileged access to much of the single market and are linked by a “guillotine clause” – if one treaty is breached, they all collapse.

As both papers rightly observe, there will be a fudge involving the Swiss government enacting some watered down proposal that will leave free movement intact.

[Mistigri]

And regarding compromises, the much (and for the most part deservedly) maligned Cameron negotiated some compromises on free movement which go considerably further than the Swiss proposals! These may have lapsed on 24th June, but you don't get to rewrite history.

[Peregrina]

Far from 'getting exited' I had actually produced a more recent reference than yours Topsy. Either way, it's Switzerland that is having to do the thinking, not stamping its feet and saying 'We must have our own way'. The clowns 'negotiating' on our behalf do not seem to be making any suggestions at all.

I note that you don't make any comment on being frozen out of Erasmus and Horizon 2020. These aren't threats of what might be - they happened.

[topsy777]

There is no conflict. It was just a different spin.

One of the treaty red line is equal treatment of all union nationals. Scottish Uni even treats the union nationals better than the English students.

But yes, if EU accept differential treatment than I think we are moving forward on these 'non-negotiables'.

[Peregrina]

A different spin from you too Topsy - you said, Let's see the if the EU kick the Swiss out, not 'Let's see what sort of fudge the Swiss put on the table, which the EU accepts'. And they still get the Freedom of Movement. As we might have too - we could have UK employers making half-hearted attempts to recruit UK staff, soon finding they weren't able to, and then importing EU staff again.

[Mistigri]

Topsy, genuine question: if as a leaver, you think that compromises on free movement, Swiss-style, are acceptable, what was it about Cameron's negotiated agreement that you had an issue with? Cameron's restriction on benefits and the emergency brake went further than anything that the Swiss seem likely to obtain.

It strikes me, with the benefit of hindsight, that Cameron achieved a good deal more than he was given credit for - and that perhaps many leavers would have thought it was a reasonably good deal if they hadn't been lied to by the press.

[GloriaGaynor]

If Leavers on here are anything to go by, many completely failed to grasp precisely what Cameron had negotiated.

[topsy777]

Peregrina
I wasn't aware of the compromise before this morning and there is still no deal. It is just a proposal so we shall see.

As for your 'fake' restrictions but real freedom of movements - well, at least now you (and hopefully other Remainers) are getting creative. So we can also have a fake acceptance of EU contribution/rules with lots of exclusions. I think we are moving in the right direction.


Mistigri
Ok...which part of the Cameron deal that you think is the 'real deal'?

This was the BBC reporting on the matter:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105

Was BBC (a press ) lying?

Dave got TC phase-in concession. In practise as tax credits are reduced and NMW increases, it is something that is achievable via national measures anyway. However, this does not achieve control.

The Swiss way (if accepted) will set a new precedence really. So firstly discrimination in the job market place, then in health care? then school places? then housing (what the Channel Islands do) which will be a de facto control.

[celeste83]

Because the EU want to be seen to punish the UK for dare leaving the undemocratic EU to scare off any other nations from following. I think the popular opinion in the continent is beginning to turn against the EU however with many anti-EU parties on the rise. I also think ever more centralisation of the EU with such policies as an EU military will result in other countries eventually leaving further down the line. There are also big Euro problems still to overcome with Greece and Italy debt problems. In the meantime I think the UK should seek to join the North American Trade Agreement with USA, Canada, and Mexico, and seek to get passporting for Chinese financial institutions.

[GloriaGaynor]

No, some British believe that the EU will punish the UK. They define punishment as the UK not being allowed to have cherry pick their terms. In actual fact all the EU will do is stand by EU regulations.

'In the mean time' a trade deal with the US will take around 10 years, and cannot replace trade with the EU.

[celeste83]

I don't think there will be an EU or Euro currency in ten years time.

[Peregrina]

Why should we attempt to join NAFTA?
Passporting for Chinese financial institutions? I suspect will be very much on China's terms.

[topsy777]

celeste83

NAFTA + 1 (UK) is certainly a very interesting proposition.

Doesn't solve the City problem but it is an additional avenue. FT quoting City sources now estimates revenue (so net profit is less) linked to EU passporting at 20% of gross revenue, so about £5bn gross.

The City already has business activities in China (HSBC, offshore RMB) etc but full scale on shore market access would not be easy.

[celeste83]

Historically Canada and USA are more our friends than the EU. We might aswell just go that way really aswell in addition to being free to creating our own deals with our commonwealth friends in Australia, New Zealand, India and South Africa. As for China, I think the ball is already in motion for closer ties betwen the UK and China. The UK really is the most experienced nation when it comes to financial instututions and China would find this as a benefit to themselves aswell as it would be to us. Theres a reason why London is the finanical capital of the world.

[Peregrina]

Then come on - why did we bother to go into the EEC if there was so much trade to be done with the predominantly White governed Commonwealth countries, and an English speaking ex-colony?

Why can't we continue to be friends with the French, Germans, Italians - but have to be with the Chinese? The Chinese are more foreign than any west European is. As I think we will find out when we try to do a significant amount of trade with them.

[topsy777]

Yes Indeed culturally those countries are closer.

China is a weird place. They would be very keen to learn nuclear tech but I am not sure about their appetite for fintech. In any case, there are opportunities in expanding the existing areas without full scale access.

[topsy777]

"Why can't we continue to be friends with the French, Germans, Italians"

Of course we are still friends. Why do you think otherwise?

[Peregrina]

I am not at all sure that the US is close to us. I think we delude ourselves.

[Peregrina]

Why are we not friends with the French, Germans, Italians etc. - because we have just told them we don't want to be.

[celeste83]

We joined the ECC because thats what it was at the time. A common trade agreement. Its the way it should have remained. Then the Euro single currency came along and ruined everything causing migration shift and debt across the continent. The EU is full of basket case economies. Its only really Germany and the Scandinavian nations who have decent economies. The rest are in decline France included. The EU also prevents member state from developing closer ties to the developing nations. It all has to be done through the EU, and be passed by each member state and take ages to get anywhere. It will be quicker for the likes of India and China to negotiate with just the UK rather than a 27 nation block. It will be tough going initially but I honestly believe jumping the sinking EU ship is for the best.