If the much privileged access to the single market must come with free movement of labour then what the fuck was it all about then?

[AdrenalineFudge]

As in effect we've basically just decided to keep the status quo but with no seat at the table. Merkel and other EU leaders have said that access to the single market - essentially an EEA - deal would still require the UK to allow free movement.
If free movement was the backbone of the Leave campaign then we've effectively shot ourselves in the foot then we won't even be allowed a place at the negotiating table yet must abide by EU law in order to trade with the bloc.
What a mess!

[Mistigri]

The status quo on worse terms. with a recession and a rise in intolerance thrown in.

[ManonLescaut]

However I can't see a way out of this that doesn't result in more or less the status quo

The status quo on worse terms.

[Mistigri]

I wonder if (British) people conflated the idea of 'free movement of people' with 'immigration'.

Clearly some of them did. I think, politically, it probably does not matter where the fall in immigration comes from as long as there is a fall. And the events of the last week have ensured that there will be.

[AdrenalineFudge]

Mistigri That said wrt making non-EU immigration harder; then what was the point. As that could have been implemented without the EU ref. I wonder if (British) people conflated the idea of 'free movement of people' with 'immigration'. An Indian doctor would still have to jump through hurdles, more so than a European fruit picker. And what we have / will have now makes that process even easier. Single market = Free movement. Tough shit for Indian doctor, better for European fruit picker. And all that whilst we won't have a place at the negotiating table.

[Mistigri]

That was a key point of Leave.

And? Add it to the list of broken promises.

Look, I'm not saying any of this is right. But if May gets in, and I think she probably will, she has form here.

[Mistigri]

Maid

Actually she may already have some aces up her sleeve, because there have been some recent changes in immigration law (higher income requirements, not letting students stay when they finish their courses) that will probably bring the non-EU figures down in due course. As Home Secretary she probably has a better feel for this than anyone else.

In addition, she will know that immigration follows the economic cycle. If Britain's jobs market looks less attractive, immigration WILL fall. This effect could be multiplied by the UK currently looking like a very unwelcoming place for migrants. Eastern Europeans who have faced abuse in the streets are probably going to tell family and friends back home about this.

At the same time, emigration will rise: EU migrants currently employed in city jobs will relocate if their jobs move, and recessions also tend to result in more Brits trying their chance abroad.

So, if I were Theresa May, I might be betting on a natural fall in net migration to take some of the heat out of this argument.

[AdrenalineFudge]

Maid I understand how it looks - on re-reading it I can see how it could be otherwise interpreted.

[sorenofthejnaii]

What May will do is make non-EU immigration even harder, in a brutal no-holds-barred attempt to get the immigration figures down

But that's unfair. That was a key point of Leave. To make it fair and not to discriminate.

[MaidOfStars]

What May will do is make non-EU immigration even harder, in a brutal no-holds-barred attempt to get the immigration figures down
I hadn't thought of this option.

Where are the soft touches? I can't outline my thoughts without stereotyping but stopping economic migrants moving non-immediate family over etc? (Is this common? If not, apologies for the myth).

[Mistigri]

manon I'm not especially optimistic. I think that much damage has been done already, notably to the City, and to inward investment.

However I can't see a way out of this that doesn't result in more or less the status quo - single market access, free movement with maybe a few scraps thrown by the EU to the xenophobes on both sides of the channel.

What May will do is make non-EU immigration even harder, in a brutal no-holds-barred attempt to get the immigration figures down. She will be helped by a natural post-referendum fall in EU immigration as the UK slips into recession and unemployment rises.

[MaidOfStars]

MaidOfStars You generally come across as a levelheaded sort on other threads so why would you assume that
Apologies if I misread the tone of your OP (and ignored any other stuff). Level-headed is not really descriptive of me right now

[AdrenalineFudge]

MaidOfStars You generally come across as a levelheaded sort on other threads so why would you assume that. I've already said how I voted and this thread isn't my shock 'WTF' response. It's a genuine question to the leavers who I'd like to know if they understand the consequences of their decision.

That said, I'm not going to beat anyone with a stick about it - I'm very much of the opinion that we must now gather stock and work it out. I even think despite the fact that we're in deep shit - we can come out with something. I don't know exactly what that is or how it would happen but we are where we are. All those hoping to for a renege decision are woefully misguided and all those wanting blood from the leavers are too.

[ManonLescaut]

A50 was always going to be at the end of the year realistically...

Reading the constitutional arguments as to whether A50 has to be voted by Parliament - on which opinion seems divided - what will happen next is unclear. (Apart from a lot of arguing). At this point I don't think it's impossible that it would get through Parliament.

I wish I shared your optimism.

[TheElementsSong]

Relax everyone! This ^^ was expected by Leave voters from the start!

I'm honestly agog to see what (apart from the emboldened far right, now wasn't that an unexpected development ) would actually cause a Brexiter to exclaim, "Golly, what a surprise!"

^^

[ManonLescaut]

I think all the trade models are bum deals compared to what we have now but Norway's probably the sanest one. I don't oppose it, I just want people to be aware of what it entails. Leavers don't seem to have any understanding that all we'll end up with is a slightly shitter version of what we have now...

[MaidOfStars]

So you know how I voted?
No, but I am guessing that Remainers here wouldn't write:
If the much privileged access to the single market must come with free movement of labour then what the fuck was it all about then?
But as I say, just a guess.

who else is going to do the essential government work of delaying A50 while pretending that you're serious about brexit?
Agree. Gove will push the button. May might not.

[Numberoneisgone]

Well the forerunners to the PM role Gove and May have said they are going to stand tough on immigration so I don't think full access to the common market will be on the cards. There will be a new model for Britain. Reduced immigration and reduced access to common market.

[Mistigri]

In any case, Norway is a bum deal, but it's a workable bum deal. At least Theresa has a plan.

I don't like her - I agree with almost nothing that she stands for - but at this point, who else is going to do the essential government work of delaying A50 while pretending that you're serious about brexit?

[Mistigri]

May is enacting Brexit though so it makes no odds. And she's appointing a Eurosceptic MP to oversee the new Brexit department.

She's just kicked A50 to the end of the year, at which point it will be kicked out to the end of the first quarter pending stress tests and evidence, at which point ...

Remember the British Bill of Rights?

[ManonLescaut]

Can I also add to the OP, that on the Norway EEA model you get the free movement with the single market, and EU rules have to be implented as national law. As you say, business has to follow EU regulations but we have no ability to influence them.

Futhermore Norway pays €100 per capita for the EU grant while the UK €180 - for full membership.

Norway did warn everyone it was a bum deal, but it few seemed to have listened.

[PeaceOfWildThings]

If we leave the EU, but keep free movement of labour and stay in the free market, we lose many laws related to human rights, working conditions, customer protection. London stops being the European financial centre, and that laurel immediately goes to Frankfurt. Many other big businesses and big employers will also leave Britain.
We don't get to join the EU passport queues and will be in the 'rest of the world' queue.
What else?

[ManonLescaut]

but it may be that a remainer, May, has won the war

May is enacting Brexit though so it makes no odds. And she's appointing a Eurosceptic MP to oversee the new Brexit department.

[Mistigri]

I do wonder if we will just have to negotiate with each country in the end

We can't negotiate with EU countries separately. They would have to leave the EU first. And even if you agree with the catastrophists who see more countries voting to leave followed by the end of the EU, this is still several years away. In the mean time, the UK has to trade with Europe.

As today's events have proven this was nothing more or less than a proxy war over the future of the Tory party. The leavers may have won a battle, but it may be that a remainer, May, has won the war.

[Ondasp]

waitrose yes I think most EU politicians must be at their wits' end with the UK to right now.

[WaitroseTrolley]

ondasp that's v reassuring, not. What the fuck must they all think of us?