what will happen to UKIP if the majority vote to leave?

[HarumScarumSanitarium]

If we leave the EU, it occurred to me there will not be a need for Ukip as we would already be independent, with not much chance of going back in. The conservatives will have carried out UKIP's main drive. Am I wrong?

[AgnetaTheViking]

I suspect UKIP will implode when it dawns on them that despite the vote to leave they're still not in charge and Johnny Foreigner is still their neighbour.

[shinytorch2]

Here's a quote from Frank Field from the BBC website.

"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."

Watch the rise of UKIP if Remain wins tomorrow. They got 12.5% in the last election plus this 14% plus some fallout from the Tories....not far off 30% which means they will be vying for MPs - I'm putting my money on a hung parliament in 2020, including UKIP

[TheAlchemist101]

This is what will happen to UKIP if we vote to remain: (fromTurbinaria)
^I predict if we vote to Remain by a narrow margin then the disaffected working class labour vote will flock en mass towards UKIP, as will a sizeable number of eurosceptic Tory votes, so they would have a voice ( just as they did to the SNP in Scotland's). UKIP Could then even win a general election and we would have a second referendum in the next 5 years.
he 2015 UK General Election results:
UK vote share after 650 of 650 seats
Party%
CON36.9
LAB 30.4
UKIP12.6
LD 7.9
SNP4.7
GRN3.8^

[Mistigri]

I think either result is good for UKIP -- you can't run a campaign based on immigration being a terrible thing without benefiting the only overtly anti-immigration mainstream party in the UK. Whether this translates into MPS is questionable, but in neither scenario do they go away.

If there is a leave vote, UKIP will function as a lobby group to ensure that a brexit tory government sticks to its promises on immigration. The instincts of the Tory leavers will be business-friendly, ie a deal (involving free movement) with the EU. UKIP will attract the "hard leavers" who wil brook no compromise.

[SpringingIntoAction]

If we vote LEAVE i expect UKIP and all these right wing organisation will disband or be very seriously undermined.

If we vote REMAIN I fully expect UKIP to see a massive surge in support, just as the SNP received after the Scottish referendum. A belief in democracy and sovereignty is like a belief in Scottish independence - not something that believers can turn on and off.

[Turbinaria]

Yes, A remain vote will strengthen UKIP and still cause chaos in both the labour and conservative parties. We live in interesting times

[Just5minswithDacre]

They'll w

[Just5minswithDacre]

They'll wither back down to insignificance if we leave.

So much of their recent "support" has been of the protest vote variety.

Their manifesto and ethos are not widely supported.

[bobthebuddha]

For a view from outside the UK, this Italian commentator thinks a leave win would help cut UKIP off t the root.

[Mistigri]

I think people grossly underestimate the appeal of UKIP, and the likelihood that they would seek to play a role in shaping a post-brexit Britain.

For all the dog-whistling about Turkey, many of the Tory leavers are broadly pro-immigration - what tends to unite them is an ideological belief in sovereignty and a dislike of regulation. When push comes to shove, in a post brexit Britain they will gravitate towards a relationship with the EU that is favourable to their own business interests and those of their supporters. Broadly, that means ensuring access to the EU market and accepting free movement.

UKIP on the other hand attracts voters for whom immigration and multi-culturalism are perceived as a threat. While the leave campaign has managed to temporarily unite the educated, pro-business leavers and the anti-immigration leavers, this alliance won't last. Unless Labour swings sharply to the right on immigration, these voters will need a banner to rally under and there is an obvious role for UKIP here.

[Just5minswithDacre]

For all the dog-whistling about Turkey, many of the Tory leavers are broadly pro-immigration

As are most (all?) of the Labour leavers.

UKIP won't figure.

[Mistigri]

As are most (all?) of the Labour leavers.

This may be true of the educated liberal leftwingers voting leave because of a distaste for the EU's neoliberal tendencies, but I am not sure at all that it is true of labour's traditional working class constituency. And the Labour Party knows this, though it does not know what to do about it.

[Just5minswithDacre]

Well either way, with the protest vote gone, UKIP won't have enough support to win a parliamentary seat again, nor even many local council seats.

[Mistigri]

I agree that this is probably true for parliamentary seats. Much less true for local elections where turnout is low. Voters motivated by a single issue like immigration are much more likely to turn out.

The cloud on the horizon for UKIP would be the loss of European funding, ironically.

[Turbinaria]

Well the SNP is really a single issue party: Scottish independence and they,ve manage to wiped out labour. UKIP will get more sophisticated after this referendum and the split in the conservatives and labour could see their MPs move towards UKIP who will work to make UKIP a credible alternative choice for voters.

[BurnTheBlackSuit]

It is far better for this country to vote leave tomorrow if voting remain gives us a UKIP government. horrified

However, I am voting leave and I would NEVER NEVER NEVER vote for UKIP. I suspect and hope that I am not alone.

On a positive, voting remain gets rid of Boris and Gove.

[Mistigri]

Well the SNP is really a single issue party

I don't think this is true any more, if it ever was - many SNP voters support devolution but not independence (I've seen figures as high as 40% for the proportion of SNP voters not backing independence).

Nevertheless I agree with you that there is a clear gap in British politics for UKIP to move into, and I think that this is true regardless of the result of the referendum. The referendum has raised the temperature around the subject of immigration and it's not going to die down soon, especially if a leave vote is followed by no significant change in immigration (and reducing immigration quickly will be hard!). This is fertile ground for a far right party to grow into, especially if its combined with further austerity and a weakening job market.

[Just5minswithDacre]

I am genuinely absolutely terrified of the political consequences of an 'In' vote. It was one of my earlier thought processes when I began to wobble on the fence.

[Just5minswithDacre]

I mean in terms of UKIP and so on.

[Mistigri]

I can understand that, but I think your arguments regarding the impact of a leave vote on UKIP are faulty.

The reality is that a leave vote will lead to no immediate change - for at least two years, and probably more, there will no additional limits on immigration, no change in our relationship with the EU, no reduction in the pressures on the health service, no extra money in people's pockets (less, in fact, if a fall in sterling results in higher inflation).

The risk is that many disaffected leave voters see UKIP as their voice, especially if the government is seen to be delaying or extending the brexit process.

[Figmentofmyimagination]

Farage is our Oswald Mosley. I suppose what happens next if we vote brexit is likely to depend on how bad and how fast the economic slide is - how difficult peoples' lives become. There always has to be a group in society to blame - right now it's EU migrants. Who knows who it will be the next target. EEA migrants perhaps? Public sector workers with better pensions? Social housing tenants? Benefit claimants? Etc etc ad infinitum.

[claig]

The Guardian journalist on BBC Newsnight tonight was excellent. He gets it, he said we have a "governing class who can't govern" and a huge distrust by the public of the whole lot of them, Labour and Conservative. He said it is a "crisis of democracy". He said we are witnessing the disintegration of Labour in Wales, the North East and the East.

He didn't mention UKIP, but it is obvious that when people lose faith in the Establishment cronies that they will turn to an anti-establishment party.

[RosesareSublime]

Ukip are a right wing party. Not quite so right wing as the BNP but still. ..

Like Corybn is a socialist but not quite as far as Hitler? or Stalin?

Ukip will grow and will grow like all the other immigration fueled parties across the EU if leave loose, if they win, they will fade away.

[RosesareSublime]

I suppose what happens next if we vote brexit is likely to depend on how bad and how fast the economic slide is - how difficult peoples' lives become

we know people are battered by immigration in so many ways, so if we remain how long before they snap literally and cause civil un rest?

Migration is only blamed due to the unprecedented number who came here very quickly and its not their fault, they suffer too.

[RosesareSublime]

This may be true of the educated liberal leftwingers voting leave because of a distaste for the EU's neoliberal tendencies, but I am not sure at all that it is true of labour's traditional working class constituency
I guess the first thing they need to do is understand you can be working class and be educated?