Before you vote.. please check whether your perceptions are in line with the figures (following the ipsos poll...)

[nearlyhellokitty]

The EU referendum is such a critical decision... but seems that there are massive misperceptions.
www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3742/The-Perils-of-Perception-and-the-EU.aspx

[PausingFlatly]

Typical Field-ism.

Here he is in 2012 saying welfare shouldn't be based on need but should be closely tied to insurance contributions: www.wirralglobe.co.uk/news/9987797.Welfare_based_on_need_should_be_scrapped___Frank_Field/

And here's what actually happened on his watch: National Insurance contribution-based ESA (Incapacity Benefit as was) was capped at 1 year for all but the most seriously disabled. Someone who becomes permanently disabled after 30 years' work is thrown into the means-tested ESA system at the end of a year, and if their partner's income reaches the designated survival level for a couple, will receive nothing. Not only are the now poor and dependent on someone else despite having personally paid NI, but if they do qualify to receive a penny under means-tested ESA (which is anyway capped lower than contribution-based) they have to attend "back to work" courses even where there is no prospect of them ever being well enough to work.

So a closer tie to insurance contributions - unless you've made lots of contributions, in which case no tie to contributions. Jolly good.

[PausingFlatly]

Frank Field speaking for the poor? Do you know anything at ALL about him?

Frank Field doesn't actually believe in the welfare state, and thinks it should be replaced by private insurance companies. I've had the "pleasure" of following his behaviour for years.

He was one of the architects of the welfare restructuring which has harmed the disabled so much, and of Universal Credit which is going to make things much worse, with its complete dependence on real-time reporting by employers (UC will vary wildly each fortnight if the employer makes even the smallest error or delay in filing) and the application of the same treadmill regimes and sanctions to people IN low-paid work as to people out of work.

He now makes his living whining about the impact his own policies are having on the poor: all other people's fault for doing it badly, you understand.

[eyebrowse]

The issue with leaving the EU is it will be worse for everybody not just the poor:
The rich will lose huge amounts on the stockmarket
Wages will go down so even though house prices go down even fewer UK people will be able to afford them. Rich Saudis and Russians will be able to snap up even more
I am very concerned about what Russia will do so we could end up with East Europeans coming in as refugees
We will have to make do with shoddy and dangerous goods without European safeguards
Less workers rights e.g. working much longer hours
Big companies e.g. google being able to to get away with even more as there is noone to stand up to them

The poor are doing badly because of the policies of the conservative government:
Loss of social housing and bedroom tax
Loss of tax credits
Local authorities not allowed to build new schools
Underfunding of the health service

[TheFallenMadonna]

People are extrapolating from their own experiences. This may give incorrect perceptions of the national figures, but national figures homogenise the data. I worked on two schools, 10 miles apart. The school in the area of high deprivation had 23% EAL, mostly EU, students. The leafy lane school had less than 5%.

[disappoint15]

But Frank Field, however honourable he might be, and however much research he might have done to reach his conclusions, is just one man. He's not some kind of visionary guru. There are plenty of equally honourable people, not all of whom work for the EU, who have reached different conclusions. Plenty of people with economic backgrounds feel that it will be worse for the poor of this country if we leave the UK. So we have to try to weigh up all the evidence.

I admit that when I see that I don't agree with the majority of the loudest pro-Leavers on any other policy or ideological belief (Gove, Johnson, Farage as frontrunners) it acts as a useful shorthand for me. So I can see why a decent chap like Frank Field who genuinely cares about social welfare would make you think.

[nearlyhellokitty]

step the argument here is whether leaving or staying benefits the poor more. It's not distasteful to disagree that leaving will help and to in fact say that it could be much much worse for the poor than staying. It's also based on the economic picture. You might disagree about the impact but don't characterise remain as ignoring the poor.

[StepintotheLightleave]

Frank Field may be a lovely man, but he is being blinkered when it comes to what will happen in the next recession once we have left the EU

I would suspect he has taken all of that into account and he still thinks we should leave actually.

I would give him more credit than that.

[StepintotheLightleave]

Red I suppose anyone would take your view "What is more damaging to this country than the result of the election is the whipping up of beliefs which are nonsense and harmful" if you simply couldn't understand that immigration has in many areas had a detrimental effect.

I do appreciate those who are in favour of it and have been lucky enough to escape its worse pressures, would speak like you.But as that guy next to Baroness Kennedy said yesterday on A Marr, if people suddenly start to kick up about something it would behove those in power to just - listen. Try and empathise.

Yes I do find it distasteful when people like Frank Field, Labour MP are trying to speak out for the really poor of the UK, Frank Field believes immigration has made the situation worse for the poor in his constituency and yet, apparently, according to some posters, he is a mad rabid, immigration hater? Who probably gleans all his knowledge not from his own constituents, but from the Daily Mail?

[Motheroffourdragons]

I don't work for the EU, so no personal interests...apologies you find my post distasteful, I'm not really sure why ? I am trying really hard to convince people that the ensuing recession will hit the poorest of the UK hardest yet again, so please try not to be passive aggressive with your 'some posters don't care about the poor' stuff. Frank Field may be a lovely man, but he is being blinkered when it comes to what will happen in the next recession once we have left the EU.

[RedToothBrush]

No not at all.

Its just easy to try and pretend its not the case.

You do not have to be remain or become remain to see that poll has value.

Its about trying to assess the quality of information you have been given and then make decisions from that. What is more damaging to this country than the result of the election is the whipping up of beliefs which are nonsense and harmful.

[StepintotheLightleave]

Mother I find your post quite distasteful really when people like Frank Field are trying to speak out for the poor, but then I realize some poster rely on the EU for work and have personal interests at stake. The true poor of this country wont matter to them

[StepintotheLightleave]

Don't you think your over reaching there red? Your making strange equations.
However when it comes to any advice and numbers, just look at the recent turn around in how we are all supposed to be eating proper fats now, which we have been told to avoid for decades? I am sure previous evidence was based on proper figures too. Figures and research have a place just as personal experience does, we must all look at the big picture

I am more likely to listen to someone like Frank Field, than stats that I doubt have been based on proper rounded research.

[RedToothBrush]

Its like when anecdotes trump evidence based medicine.

Its like all muslims are terrorists because one muslim acted a particular way and it was all over the news.

I'm not really into 'gut feeling' for that reason. It has a tendancy to assess 'risk' inaccurately due to bias which can be harmful to society.

But yep, that's patronising. I guess we should be funding homeopathy and restrictive diets for cancer then?

Or is that 'different' because its not immigration we are talking about?

[Motheroffourdragons]

Good post kitty. I saw this yesterday. I do think though that the leavers will not listen to anything, just shouting project fear and scaremongering and immigration at every opportunity.

[StepintotheLightleave]

Surely it's important that people have full access to all the information

It would be very helpful to once and for all have access to figures but the sad truth is, this country is woefully poor when it comes to counting heads and collecting data.

We know the Labour government predicted 14 thousand polish people may or may come here. which led to a flood of thousands.

This led to a massive shortfall in council head counts which in turn led to a short fall in council budgets which led to chaos, suffering and services pulled from other areas to cope. we still have no idea how many people are actually here, and we never will. so whilst I certainly look at charts and figures I always keep in mind, there is no real way to measure this.
Because there is no way to count it.

[nearlyhellokitty]

enthusiasm well it's certainly true that there's 'lies, damned lies and statistics' but generally speaking the facts stand..The person further up the thread agrees that the figures are in fact correct and full fact (the independent fact checker) shows that she's wrong on the audit.

Still the stuff about MEPs eg is just true.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Again it's my first post on this thread and someone further up the thread discussed the investment side they also posted from the office for national statics

And facts can't be slightly wrong can they

It's based on asking 1000 people that's a tiny tiny number of people to base perception facts on you have to take into account the questions asked and that statics can be manipulated by how the question is asked

[nearlyhellokitty]

Carol decker - you said 'these aren't facts' - yes they are.

[nearlyhellokitty]

Enthusiasm - again you're focusing narrowly on one question. Even if the figures are slightly wrong - the perception is way out! There are also plenty of other issues. Tbh I find this typifies the debate. You post something about a wide set of issues and people just send out attacks on immigration. What about the MEPS and other points? That's just objectively true.

[mollie123]

its
I find it slightly terrifying that so many people are going to vote based on their lived experience (anecdata) and find facts patronising.

and this also applies to many of the 'remain' supporters

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

Should read not the hard facts ....

It's early

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

I would read the footnotes before posting facts

They are based on estimations

An estimate is not a fact

Government has underestimated figures as we have seen in recent government publications

So of course people are ignoring these facts especially when it comes down to immigration as they are wrong over and over again

Going back to the research paper if you read further and look at the links of where the information comes from (office of national statistics) it's not good reading for the remain campaign. It doesn't support UKIP fear tactics but regardless the numbers are higher than any government would care to admit.
in the year between 2013/14 immigration population grew by 7.2% not sure exactly what percentage was from the EU (who does ... later in paper states that increase largely driven by increase from EU residents)

Then if you research a little further some of the estimations are based on 2011 census and many people will argue that there has been huge changes since then

So this is where papers like this fall apart as they are the hard facts people want

[SpringingIntoAction]

It's not about -
DIY recessions
Immigration figures
Trade deals
GDP forecasts
Environmental issues
Arrest warrants
Erasmus programme

and so on and so on.

These are side shows.

It's about living in a country that is sovereign and self-determning. By that I mean a country that can

1. make its own laws to suit its own needs instead of passing laws made in Brussels that can be obertrned by foreign EU judges
   
2. raise its own taxes on the gods and services it wishes to tax at rates it wishes to levy - instead of having to ask the EU nicely if it can reduce the tax on Tampons - and be refused
   
3. can trade feely with the world, instead of being prohibited from making trade deals while it's an EU member
   
4. can control its own borders - instead of having to accept every EU citizen who wishes to live here
   
5. can defend itself.Instead of being coerced into an EU army that EU President Junckers says is nceessary 'to defend the EU's foreign policy'. Scary.
   
   There is absolutely nothing more important than living in a country that has those basic sovereign rights.
   
   If you don;t have these , you are not living in a democracy.
   
   Democracy is priceless It's what countries have gone to war to preserve.
   
   I want to LEAVE the EU and regain UK sovereignty.

[caroldecker]

Nearlyhello I did not dispute the figures were correct, just that EU investment in the UK is falling, and other countries are increasing.

[disappoint15]

Unfortunately, Nearlyhellokitty, as you probably have realised, you cannot reason people out of an position into which they have not reasoned themselves. And there is precious little reason in many of those in the Leave echo chamber.

This is why these threads are full of people saying that facts are patronising, that their experience yesterday in the supermarket carpark must mean that everyone had exactly the same experience in their supermarket carpark and that any data that contradicts their preferred worldview is scaremongering.