Are people underestimating the impact of other viral infections?

[GruffaloandMouse]

With Covid, it seems like people are in such a state of terror, as though they don’t realise other viruses and infections could have awful or even devastating effects.
I’m far more scared of sepsis, which can occur as the result of any infection or even a small cut on the finger.

A couple of examples from me are when I caught hand, foot and mouth as an adult from my DS last year, I was so unwell. A very high temperature, chills, shakes, such painful body aches, incredibly sore throat. Then a day later these huge ulcers all developed down my throat and in my mouth, rendering it basically impossible to eat without excruciating pain. Nothing like a normal sore throat, these were like open wounds in my throat.
Luckily I managed to fight it off, but I’ve heard stories of adults ending up in hospital with both that and chicken pox.
My other example is of my DS when he was only 2 months old, he caught a genetic cold virus from me and it turned into broncholitis, which ended him up in hospital overnight with oxygen and a feeding tube. He was very white, floppy and unresponsive the next day and we were worried we might lose him. Luckily he was fine, but it was incredibly scary and that came from a cold virus.

Basically I just can’t get my head around the reaction to this virus, when there isn’t the same reaction to other viruses and infections.

[CountFosco]

For otherwise healthy working age adults and children the risk of life changing injuries or death from an RTA are much worse

You are not comparing like with like. The RTA figures are deaths (~1700) and serious injuries (20-30K depending on the year, this year will be lower of course due to lockdown) for a year.

The Covid-19 deaths are for 3 months. In April 1/3 of all deaths in all age groups except the under 15s was linked to Covid-19 Fig 7 on this ONS site , suggests if we let it run rampant we'd be in trouble. We don't yet know the long term impacts for those who were seriously ill. And I don't know what the definition of 'serious injury' after a RTA is, don't know if you do? How does that compare with the number of people who will suffer long term impacts of having Covid-19? We just don't have the data yet.

We do know there are already more Covid-19 deaths (~ 5% of all deaths are in the under-60s so over 2000) than the yearly expected RTA deaths.

There is obviously a discussion to be had about the impact of Covid-19 vs other causes of death vs the social and economic impact. It is not an easy decision to make and everyone has their own level of acceptable risk but there's no point comparing non-equivalent data and there is no point making up numbers as PPs have done on this and other threads.

[IAintentDead]

@CountFosco

Statistically the chances of being injured or killed in a road accident are much much higher than being seriously ill with covid.

Please check statistics, it's really not hard. There are just over 1700 deaths on the road per year in the UK and 20-30,000 serious injuries. Both less than the deaths from Covid-19 this year so far.

For otherwise healthy working age adults and children the risk of life changing injuries or death from an RTA are much worse

[TheLegendOfZelda]

@InOutofmymind

It is more serious for Asian people, yes. Which might have made a difference here?

CV left to run riot, will overwhelm health systems, in a way that few if any other illnesses would do, be that in China or the UK.

TBH nothing comes close.

I don't think anyone is seriously suggesting it is just left to run riot.

[TheLegendOfZelda]

40% had no symptoms at the point of testing. Presymptomatic and asymptomatic are not the same thing. We don’t really know what the rate of asymptomatic cases are yet.

It's looking like 40% asymptomatic not presymptomatic
Some studies are saying 30% so perhaps between 30 and 40% would be more accurate

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

@CountFosco

Statistically the chances of being injured or killed in a road accident are much much higher than being seriously ill with covid.

Please check statistics, it's really not hard. There are just over 1700 deaths on the road per year in the UK and 20-30,000 serious injuries. Both less than the deaths from Covid-19 this year so far.

I meant for people who don't have other risk factors, I should have been clearer.

[Sirzy]

Ds nearly died from bronchiolitis when he was a baby. He has life long lung damage and other issues as a result. He is 10 now and he is on the shielding list.

I am more than aware of the impacts of a virus which is why I am taking the risk of this seriously

[iamapixie]

@TheDailyCarbuncle

11 million people a year die from infections across the world, via sepsis. I don't think people have any concept of how dangerous infections are and I think to an extent people's reactions to covid have been due to the fact that death has become something no one wants to even consider or talk about - it's shut away, sanitised, considered something that only happens to really old people. The sad stories of young people dying have scared people because they realise that death isn't this theoretical thing, it's a constant reality. If the BBC reported all the young deaths that happen every single day, from cancer, infections, accidents, then people would be much more aware of the fact that while young deaths happen from covid, they also happen from many many other things and covid is one risk among a very long list of risks. Perspective has been totally lost IMO, especially when healthy young people are terrified of covid but then speed or tailgate on the road. Statistically the chances of being injured or killed in a road accident are much much higher than being seriously ill with covid.

Very true.

[CountFosco]

Statistically the chances of being injured or killed in a road accident are much much higher than being seriously ill with covid.

Please check statistics, it's really not hard. There are just over 1700 deaths on the road per year in the UK and 20-30,000 serious injuries. Both less than the deaths from Covid-19 this year so far.

[InOutofmymind]

It is more serious for Asian people, yes. Which might have made a difference here?

CV left to run riot, will overwhelm health systems, in a way that few if any other illnesses would do, be that in China or the UK.

TBH nothing comes close.

[Lovely1a2b3c]

People can get very ill from lots of different viruses- yes.

People can get bacterial sepsis from things such a Pneumonia after a viral flu- yes.

Most viruses whilst impacting the hospitals/NHS don't have the same massive impact as Coronavirus. This then impacts on treatment for all other conditions as if lots of beds are taken up by Covid then there's none for other conditions.

Whilst antibiotics given at the right time intravenously work for sepsis (unless antiobitic resistant); the treatment for Covid intensive care patients is just supportive care because as it is viral there is nothing that works for it, in the same way as antibiotics do for sepsis.

[Heytheredelilah99]

Agreed, some care homes who are locked down and havent had covid have reported less deaths than normal. No visitors bringing I'm colds/flu or stomach bugs which can all be lethal for the elderly and vulnerable X

[Orangeblossom78]

If the chinese (with their appalling human rights record) lockdown their country, then you can bet your last dollar, this a very serious illness.

It is more serious for Asian people, yes. Which might have made a difference here?

[Orangeblossom78]

Something which sorries me much more is having previous surgery and scar tissue internally meaning at risk of needing further emergency surgery - if you have this they can only do full open surgery (laparotomy) and it needs treated within 24 hrs to be life saving if it gets to the stage it has done previously

Many people do not realise this is a big reason for A&E admissions and as well as being agonisingly painful, leads to sepsis and death within such a short time

So that is much more of a concern for me after 3 previous episodes and surgeries. Although getting the virus at the same time, on admission, would be a concern I suppose.

[TheDailyCarbuncle]

11 million people a year die from infections across the world, via sepsis. I don't think people have any concept of how dangerous infections are and I think to an extent people's reactions to covid have been due to the fact that death has become something no one wants to even consider or talk about - it's shut away, sanitised, considered something that only happens to really old people. The sad stories of young people dying have scared people because they realise that death isn't this theoretical thing, it's a constant reality. If the BBC reported all the young deaths that happen every single day, from cancer, infections, accidents, then people would be much more aware of the fact that while young deaths happen from covid, they also happen from many many other things and covid is one risk among a very long list of risks. Perspective has been totally lost IMO, especially when healthy young people are terrified of covid but then speed or tailgate on the road. Statistically the chances of being injured or killed in a road accident are much much higher than being seriously ill with covid.

[HarveySchlumpfenburger]

@TheLegendOfZelda

I had pneumonia, it takes about six months if not longer to feel relatively strong, and about six or seven years for my lungs to feel better. We've just forgotten what convalescence is (re all this covid recovery talk)
40% get no symptoms. This has tipped into mass hysteria. It's serious but hardly worth ripping up the world for.

40% had no symptoms at the point of testing. Presymptomatic and asymptomatic are not the same thing. We don’t really know what the rate of asymptomatic cases are yet.

And the pneumonia from this doesn’t look like it’s behaving in the same way that normal pneumonia does. Yes it’s too soon to say the damage may be permanent, but the lung scans of people with COVID 3months down the line are looking worse than doctors were expecting. They’d be looking fairly normal by now in a typical pneumonia.

[CountFosco]

Over 500K people are reported to have died worldwide so far because of Covid-19 in the last 6 months. And that is with lockdown and not counting excess deaths which aren't currently included in these figures.

Flu kills slightly less than that every year and 1-2M in a pandemic year. Spanish Flu killed ~50M.

Malaria kills ~400K a year
HIV kills ~770K a year
TB kills 1.5M a year

You may notice that all these diseases (except Covid-19) have treatments that render them a lot less deadly in the west, the majority of the deaths are in lower income countries.

[PuzzledObserver]

Chicken pox and measles were much much worse for populations with no immunity - the New World populations of the Americas were almost wiped out by measles.

What that means is that ones who survived to pass on their genes were less susceptible - that’s natural selection in operation. Today’s population is much less susceptible to severe outcomes from measles and chicken pox, although they do of course still occur, especially in populations which are malnourished.

The same would eventually happen with Covid if it continues to spread unchecked. People catch it in childhood, the very susceptible ones sadly die without having children, and the average level of genetic resistance in the population gradually rises. Those who have caught it in childhood have at least some immunity, perhaps catching it repeatedly but having less severe disease, depending on the rate at which immunity declines. Maybe when they’re elderly it is the thing which finally gets them, if cancer or flu haven’t.

However, those of us who are adults now are much more likely to have severe disease if we do catch it, and the older you are the worse your prospects. The next few decades are not going to be much fun, unless we get that vaccine out.

I believe we will.

[mac12]

There lots of horrible viruses in the world, in the past, present & future.
Yes sepsis is terrible.
Yes we do not care enough about disease in other parts of the world.
We can acknowledge this and also accept that Covid is a terrible disease, that it too will cause sepsis & many people are suffering with long term debilitating illness following even mild infection. We do not yet know what long term health impacts will be.

And we should also acknowledge that by not doing better to contain & suppress Covid in wealthy countries we are directly making the Covid 19 crisis worse in poorer countries with underdeveloped health systems. The WHO was v clear about this.

[TheLegendOfZelda]

Chicken pox and measles were much much worse for populations with no immunity - the New World populations of the Americas were almost wiped out by measles. Covid pales in comparison.

[Sunshinegirl82]

The death rate for Covid varies dramatically by age. I don’t know but I suspect that the same would be true for something like chicken pox. If a large number of older people with no immunity contracted chicken pox simultaneously then I suspect a much larger number would die than the official fatality rate suggests.

[InOutofmymind]

Covid is a terrible illness, with a very hi mortality rate in the over 70s Almost all the other viruses that have been mentioned, can be treated or are not highly infectious.
Nr neighbours, both NHS, caught CV, 3 months on, both still off work, both still subject to weakness, coughing, shortage of breath, both in 40s. didn't have pre existing conditions or went to hospital... so one of the "mild" cases

If the chinese (with their appalling human rights record) lockdown their country, then you can bet your last dollar, this a very serious illness.

[RancidOldHag]

Covid death rates (of various types) remain as estimates, which continue to change.

I thought this was a good article:

ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#how-did-confirmed-deaths-and-cases-change-over-time

Congo has measles, Ebola and Covid simultaneously. The mainstream media here, with exception of BBC reporting on Yemen, is not covering the plight of less developed countries

[TheLegendOfZelda]

How does chicken pox death rate compare to covid for children?

I was just wondering about measles and read this very sad article about how it is spreading in DRC and other developing countries as covid lockdowns mean vaccination programmes there have stalled. It has a death rate there of 3-6%. And yet is preventable with a cheap vaccine. How little we care about lives other than our own in the west.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01011-6

[RancidOldHag]

Chickenpox CFR is overall 2-3/100,000 cases US/UK.
Children - 1/100,000 (0.001%) Adults - 20-25/100,000 0.02-0.025%)

[RancidOldHag]

"200,000 Peopel died last year with norovisus complications"

That's the global figure, and the estimated global number of cases is 685million. That's a rate of 0.03%, so considerably less dangerous than Covid. There are of course various different types of death rate, and it's still being established for Covid, but it's about 2-3% CFR isn't it?