So it's nothing to do with the science then

[bonsaidragon]

The government lied when they said it's all about the science.

From the bbc :


Relaxing lockdown is a risk because levels of the coronavirus are still "very high", one of the government's top science advisers says.
Prof John Edmunds said it was a "political decision" to lift lockdown and that "many" scientists would wait.
The warning comes as Sage, the group of scientists advising government, publish details of their confidential meetings.
One meeting on 23 April estimated there would be only 1,000 cases per day by mid-May.
Instead, estimates by the Office for National Statistics suggest there are currently 8,000 cases per day in England alone. Those figures don't include cases in care homes or hospitals.
'Little time for stringent measures'
"Many of us would prefer to see the incidence down to lower levels before we relax measures," Prof Edmunds, from the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine, said.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a member of Sage, agreed that measures were being lifted too early, writing on Twitter that the newly-introduced NHS test and trace system needed to be "fully working" before measures were eased.
Newly-published Sage documents also warned of the dangers of having high numbers of cases.

[Barbie222]

They are linked though. If Boris hadn't needed quick distractions the news could have been delayed.

It was always a mistake to put an arbitrary date. Just as it was a mistake to set an arbitrary target for tests.

The correct answer for how many tests we need was "enough for everyone who has symptoms, and who is having to put themselves within 2m of others, either because they are elderly or very young, or need to so their work can be done." The success would be measured by how many people rang up and had to be told no.

The correct answer for "when to open schools to more children and shops to more customers" was "when the infection number is down to a point that we can trace and track all the people who are possibly walking around and being infectious." The success would be measured by the degree of change in the R before and after opening within a pilot area where the numbers of infections are low, but the test and track capability is high.

[effingterrified]

I agree with you, Sunshine82.

We should be spending more time discussing why lockdown is being ended than discussing Cummings.

Both are important but the former is more important.

[Sunshinegirl82]

I completely agree with you but that isn’t the government that we’ve got. We can only deal with the situation as it is and not as lots of us would like it to be. Much as I dislike BJ et al a political coup isn’t an option right now so we are going to have to find our way as best we can.

Being dragged into a skirmish about DC just means opportunities are missed to press down on the detail of the things that matter. Press question after press question at the briefings asking the same thing. I understand why to an extent but it means lots of other things get missed.

DC isn’t going anywhere, at least not for now.

[merrymouse]

This isn’t just about ensuring that people stick to the rules, it’s also about giving them confidence that they can trust the government as restrictions are lifted.

Ordinarily I wouldn’t put my safety in the hands of somebody who thinks you should go for a drive to check your eyesight - why would I do that now?

[merrymouse]

So your view is that we shouldn’t take any further steps until the app is up and running

I just want him to be honest and open about what is happening.

I want to live in a country that views the virus as a problem to be solved, not an affront to the egos of the people in government.

It really worries me that the instinctive reactions of both Cummings and Boris were ‘no ones going to tell me what I have to do’, whether they were shaking hands or going on day trips.

[JassyRadlett]

Johnson has now said it might be working by the end of June. If you believe him on that.

I’m no fan of the man, but if you’re going to quote him you should do it accurately. The fact that the system won’t be fully operational at a local level (per Dido Harding not the PM) is disgraceful, but let’s characterise it accurately.

[Sunshinegirl82]

So your view is that we shouldn’t take any further steps until the app is up and running? That is the “track” element? The test and trace elements are now operational.

I’m reasonably indifferent to the app. I’ll download it when it’s available but it’s strength will be in identifying contacts who are strangers. As things stand I would imagine very few people have significant numbers of stranger contacts due to social distancing.

Plus it relies on people to download it, those who know they are planning to break the rules probably just won’t do so, or will leave their phone at home.

[DinghyCalledDignity]

@effingterrified. I didn't say he wasn't an advisor, I said he's a social psychologist (not a scientist with info about infection rates etc) who has a book out who is also tweeting a study about the unexpectedly high levels of compliance.

Do you disagree with that? Is he wrong do you think?

[effingterrified]

Sunshinegirl82 - no there isn't a track and trace system in place now.

Johnson has now said it might be working by the end of June. If you believe him on that.

The scientific advice - and the Government's own 5 tests - made it quite clear that the lockdown should not be reduced until an efficient test, track and trace system was in place.

IT IS NOT.

There is no scientific basis for reducing lockdown now. This will inevitably lead to a second wave and tens of thousands more unnecessary deaths.

It is reckless in the extreme.

[effingterrified]

DinghyCalledDignity - Professor Reicher is one of the Government's 'scientific advisors'. Not sure why you think he isn't.

He is a member of SPI-B.

He is one of several members of SPI-B to criticise the way the Government has ignored their advice and handle the crisis.

[banjaxxed]

I don't think Whitty and Vallance were muzzled. On the contrary, I thought they were both very forthright on Thursday particularly Patrick Vallance who said 'this is not a low number' and we are 'in an fragile state'

Clearly, it's a knife-edge. I think the rules were relaxed because people have relaxed them anyway.

I don't think either of those men would answer questions about DC anyway.

[Sunshinegirl82]

There is a track and trace system in operation now. Whether it’s good enough remains to be seen. None of the social measures that have been taken should result in people having significant numbers of contacts if the rules are followed. If the rules are not being followed then it doesn’t really matter what the rules are. I don’t believe the rules are being disregarded in anything like the numbers assumed by some posters but again it’s entirely possible I am wrong on that.

Time will tell in any event. I’ve seen numerous predictions of spikes left right and centre on here and none of them seem to come to anything. It’s all a bit the boy who cried wolf now. Maybe the wolf really will arrive this time, we shall see.

[RedToothBrush]

but I am not sure the entire country will abandon social distancing because DC broke the lockdown rules.

The difference between success / failure isn't about everyone following guidance; it's about enough people taking it seriously enough for it to have an impact. A drop in just 5 to 10% compliance could result in there being enough of a problem that we do get a second wave. If you look at track and trace if it's effective it will only reduce cases by a maximum of 15%. If the system isn't fully operational it will be having significantly lower affect. Plus you have people under the misguided belief that track and trace is more effective than it is and a weakening in social distancing compliance.

That's why it's important to stress this honestly rather than let people have false expectations and beliefs. And it's important to have public trust in government and the protocols its promoting.

[Etinox]

@imsooverthisdrama

Oh come on does anyone seriously think we can lockdown in our homes for months on end ?.
The virus isn't going away we need to manage it .
If your worried don't see your family or friends stay home .

What if you’re a bus driver or nurse? What if your dcs are desperate to go back to school but you’re shielding?

[merrymouse]

However, my chosen key indicator is ‘are the government happy to tell me any old shit to protect the ego if an employee?’

[DinghyCalledDignity]

Prof Stephen Reicher is a social pychologist who with a few others rushed out an ebook 'Together Apart - The Psychology of COVID 19 a few weeks back which included a paragraph about the importance of 'leaders' being seen to adhere to guidelines so he obviously (as you would if you were him) LOVED the DC story and made those tweets about BJ 'trashing advice' etc as it publiscised him and his book. No foul to me as he's not wrong but he has loved it on his Twitter, talking about how many times he was retweeted, being the subject of a question in the DM, commenting on all his new followers and how they might be a bit bored after the drama calms down because he generally just tweets about social psychology etc.

He has also tweeted this study a few times in the last 24 hrs www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.kcl.ac.uk/policy-institute/assets/getting-used-to-life-under-lockdown.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjLwOCHudvpAhVFXRUIHUrODNkQFjAAegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw0Jakl_wZhHJ9k4cVQM-IdU

Which in his words is 'the real story of the pandemic is how well people understood the issues and are prepared to observe restrictions for each other' and 'the extraordinary number of people who are still abiding by the rules and even going beyond them'.

He isn't a 'scientific advisor' in terms of science of numbers, R rates, infection etc. He's a social psychologist who suggested some people follow leaders and if those leaders appear to fail to do what they've told others to do, it could have an effect. Which we know to be fair.

But he's also tweeting research about how many have complied. Which is great to see evidenced 🙂

[merrymouse]

Availability of an effective tracking tracing and testing system to enable control of the virus and establish what the hell is going on.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Which key indicators have been ignored?

[effingterrified]

Agree, merrymouse. The Government has been hiding behind the scientists to claim that their actions are based on 'the science'.

Given the UK has the highest death rates in Europe and indeed by some measures the world, it matters who bears the responsibility for the tens of thousands of deaths, as will become apparent in the inevitable enquiries into the mismanagement of the response to the disease.

The Government is currently blaming 'the science'.

So it matters if what they are actually doing is ignoring the science.

[merrymouse]

Notalwaysalondoner’s post explains why ‘following the science’ was a way for the government to avoid responsibility - at some point somebody has to make a decision.

It doesn’t justify ignoring key indicators chosen by the government without explanation.

[itsgettingweird]

The question is why do we need to get our econommy going much quicker than the other countries to the point that we are doing with with much higher infection rates than other countries . And in some cases it's 4-5 times the numbers.

We've already got countries who have categorically said they are opening for summer holidays but not to brits as our infection rates are too high.

That'll be affecting our economy.

[merrymouse]

If all the trust is gone and people won’t be follow the guidance anyway it doesn’t really matter if we ease lockdown does it?

Whether you think lockdown was a waste of time or whether you think restrictions should not be lifted next week, it matters that there is no coherent policy.

I would like to believe that when my father is told he no longer needs to shield, the people giving the advice are competent.

[OnItCarBonnet]

@notalwaysalondoner I agree. Very few people are looking at the bigger picture, which I find very worrying. It’s almost like the deaths that will be caused by the lockdown here and across the world (delayed treatments, fear of seeking treatment, suicide, poverty) don’t matter to some people.

[Sunshinegirl82]

I was going to write a long reply but I think @notalwaysalondoner has already said it.

[itsgettingweird]

Personally I think the mismanagement has been the way we've come out of lockdown.

There has been lots of mixed messaging.

Beaches weren't warned people could suddenly be outside as much as they want and that's caused issues because they couldn't prepare safely and get lifeguards etc and correct PPE.

We had a very good and slow roadmap. This was based on number dropping enough to get to level 3.
We have now opened more than we were going to at this stage whilst still at 4.

I get the economy needs to start. But what is the cost to the economy of reopening too soon and requiring another lockdown very soon. It's where we are heading.