'Kids don't spread it'

[WindFlower92]

Keep seeing this as a justification for schools opening. Anyone know if 14/15 year olds count as 'kids' in this context?

And is there any actual hard evidence for this statement anyway?

[Ontopofthesunset]

I don't know why people find this so confusing. It's about balancing risk and benefit. Studies so far show that children are much less likely to become seriously ill and also less likely to infect others; asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic carriers typically shed less virus. Reducing class size and removing eg playdough are steps to lessen the risk of transmission still further. So it is not that there is no risk. It is that the current belief is that the benefit to children and society in general of schools beginning to reopen is worth the risk which will be minimised as far as possible.

[Weedsnseeds1]

Should add, this applies to viruses you have not previously been exposed to.
If it's something you have encountered before and become infected by, you immune system has provided you with antibodies and can deal with any exposure.
This doesn't always have to be the identical virus (see smallpox and cowpox), so there is a possibility that previous infection with a strain of the common cold or SARS, may provide some immunity to COVID19. Of course, without scientific evidence, I wouldn't suggest anyone rely on that, but it could explain why some people are exposed multiple times, without becoming ill or testing positive for antibodies to this specific virus.

[QueenofmyPrinces]

If it's something you have encountered before and become infected by, you immune system has provided you with antibodies and can deal with any exposure. This doesn't always have to be the identical virus (see smallpox and cowpox), so there is a possibility that previous infection with a strain of the common cold or SARS, may provide some immunity to COVID19

At the end of February, my husband and our two sons went to Malta for a week - so spent a week abroad and also 4 trips to an airport.

Anyhow - a week after they came back I got a phone call from my son’s (year 1) school asking me to pick him up because he had a temperature and didn’t feel well. When I collected him he was crying, said his throat hurt too much to talk and had a temperature of 38.8. He was unwell with these symptoms for about 3 days. At about the same time my husband came down with the most awful cough which lasted for about 3 weeks. About 5 days after my first son came down with his symptoms my youngest son, aged 2, also started getting temperatures, though not as high as my other son’s was.

When news of the Corona virus came out I was joking that they all must have had it but concluded it was just a coincidence as I hadn’t been ill whereas if they’d have spread it to me then I would have.

However, I’m a nurse, and over the last 10 years I have spent every winter exposed to God knows how many respiratory viruses, included lots of exposure to the corona virus.

Do you think it could be possible then that due to my job history I may have some degree of immunity to Covid-19?

[Barbie222]

It is likely that children do act as vectors, as other people do. The government are prepared to accept a rise in the R by opening schools, and they are compensating for this by keeping much of the rest of society shut. So the overall risk will rise slightly, but the uncomfortable truth is that the risk within the bubbles will be higher. That's why the adaptations need to be in place, and that's why many parents and teaching staff are concerned, because they have their individual risk in mind rather than the country's risk overall.

[Weedsnseeds1]

Queenofmyprinces it's entirely possible, however, as I said, I haven't seen any hard scientific evidence or research specifically for this coronavirus.
I travel extensively for work, so in the first part of the year I have been in T4 Heathrow, 4 times (2 flights) when all Chinese flights were being syphoned through there, London, right before lockdown, using the tube, then a train full of Cheltenham racegoers got on, a foreign airport with one airside waiting area, where I was mingling with a Chinese and a Hong Kong flight.
Several short haul flights, numerous hotels, a factory with two staff confirmed positive. I should be the poster child for COVID19.
Nothing. My OH, however, had the three week cough, although we don't know if that was "it" as not tested.
I do personally think there are naturally immune people out there. How many? I have no idea.
But, you are right that, although many hospital staff have sadly died, their overall death rate is below average as a group, despite exposure levels.
There could be many reasons, such as better than average hygiene /PPE use, but being routinely exposed to respiratory infections over the years, could also be part of it.

[Weedsnseeds1]

Interestingly, I have just seen this linked on another thread
unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

[pfrench]

Most of the stories you read go back to one kid who was exposed to lots of people and no one caught it.

Yes, the child in the ski chalet.

That's one child and lots of people, often in outside environments (ski school). What about 15 asymptomatic children in a room with 1 adult? What's the adult's viral load? Have a feeling that English schools are the testing ground for this research.

[Weedsnseeds1]

Viral load isn't whether you have been exposed to 1 person or 15, it's how much is in your system. That is driven by how fast your immune system responds to an infective dose.

[Delatron]

Interesting article. I hope she’s right. Though if she is lockdown was a huge,, Expensive waste of time.

With regards to children there’s a new study just out of Sweden which is basically a review of 47 studies all which show children ‘are not likely to be the main drivers’ of COVID 19. And this is why we haven’t seen huge outbreaks in schools, even in areas where they have remained open.

I’ll try and link it. Though I’m sure there will be some Mumsnet expert who knows more than these scientists and 47 separate respect papers who will say ‘we just don’t have enough information yet’ or discredit 47 studies......

Yet to see ONE study which says they are super spreaders....

[pfrench]

They don't have to be super spreaders if there are 15 of them in a room all day every day with one adult.

[Weedsnseeds1]

It makes no difference. If one person coughs an infective dose on you, you don't get 15x more infected if another 14 then cough on you. What is relevant is how fast your immune system reacts. The viral load is the amount of virus in the infected person. If your system is slow to react, the virus has had longer to replicate, so there is a higher viral load.

[Delatron]

I can’t seem to link on my phone but the conclusion of these 47 studies by the scientists was that children rarely initiate the spread in the household and they are unlikely to infect teachers.

The study noted there have been no major outbreaks in schools in Sweden where they have been open throughout the pandemic. The scientists say it is due to the low viral low that children have and therefore they are less infectious. Teachers they claim are at no greater risk than any other profession.

It’s a paper by the Karolinska Institute In Stockholm.

I’m guessing 47 research papers saying the same thing and actual evidence in Sweden won’t be enough.

Anyway, day after day more research comes out supporting this. Haven’t seen anything that says otherwise with regards to children.

I’m going to base my view on actual evidence rather than what people think must be the case. This isn’t flu and it doesn’t behave like flu. Children are not as affected, they are not as infections when they are and they do not drive outbreaks. It’s great we have so much evidence that supports this now.

[Tootletum]

Everything I've read suggests the studies defining 'kids' in context of infection rates is under 10s.

[Ontopofthesunset]

There weren't huge outbreaks in schools prior to lockdown which you would have expected in London at least.

[Ontopofthesunset]

Sorry, I mean that this supports the evidence that children are not the main drivers of transmission.

[Cornettoninja]

@Weedsnseeds1 I thought that was how live vaccines worked. You get a little bit of a virus (albeit weakened) so your immune system isn’t overwhelmed the same way it would be if you were infected naturally.

Completely happy to be corrected (in fact welcome it!) but I’ve obviously misunderstood something along the way when reading up on viral load theories regarding covid.

[Delatron]

Yes @Ontopofthesunset I was thinking that today. If the virus was circulating from February and if London peaked earlier (they say before lockdown) and we didn’t close schools until March 20th was it? Then surely we would have seen lots of infections in kids and teachers.

[Eyewhisker]

Swedish schools are open as normal up to age 16, including secondary school kids in Stockholm taking public transport to school. There have been no reports of major outbreaks in schools.

Just as in the UK, the majority of deaths there are in care homes which have a uniquely susceptible population.

Of the UK’s deaths, less than 1% are in the under 45s. The risk to children and their parents does not justify the damage being done to them by the lockdown. The government expects up to a third of small firms may never reopen.

[LemonPudding]

But isn’t this the argument the Government used as to why it’s safe to open the schools?

I cannot believe there is anyone in the country who trusts this government to tell the truth about Covid19.

[Streamingbannersofdawn]

I'm inclined to agree with Eyewhisker here. But the messages are so confusing, if children don't spread it then why do we need to halve class sizes and deep clean so much? Seriously, the schools guidance talks about getting rid of hard to clean items and being careful over the sharing of pencils...I can see why teachers are scared and parents are worried about sending their children back.

[Barbie222]

Children catch it as much as adults do so I can certainly understand why the advice is to be cautious. The consensus seems to be that we don't know yet about spread, as it seems to show differently in different studies.

Anecdotally we probably all know of cases where it has passed around a family and affected family members very differently.

[BackInTime]

The virus must have been circulating at the very least in London and the SE following half term when many kids returned from school ski trips or family trips abroad. Kids remained in school for almost a month after this and yet there were no significant outbreaks in schools that I am aware of. Neither has there been significant outbreaks in schools in Europe either pre or post lockdowns.

Yes there is a small element of risk as risk can never be eliminated but the risk of an accident travelling to and from school is probably higher yet that is not a reason to shut schools.

[Mascotte]

There's no evidence of schools being a centre of virus spread anywhere. Many places kept schools open, as they are for key workers here, and it's been fine.

[MarginalGain]

I guess I’m just confused as to why all these measures are being put in place in schools when children supposedly aren’t a risk to each other or to others

It's all theatre.

Do you think it could be possible then that due to my job history I may have some degree of immunity to Covid-19?

My husband told me that he read an article this morning suggesting that non-SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses can confer some degree of immunity for SARS-CoV-2. I will ask him to send me the link, or maybe you can find it (I can't because google is picking up too much clutter).

[Delatron]

Completely agree with @Eyewhisker and we’ll look back in years to come and wonder what on earth we were thinking.