Has UK Lockdown been a waste of time and money?

[pontypridd]

Other countries have started locking down earlier and been far more strict. Their lockdown has had more effect and now they're beginning to come out of it.

UK locked down was late and has been soft - so not much change to infection rates etc are happening.

Might we have been better off not bothering? As it stands it looks as though we're going to have to continue this for much longer. I wonder whether a shorter and more severe lock down would have ended sooner.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/25/boris-johnson-lockdown-dilemma-grim-virus-data

South Africa has less than 100 deaths. The UK has 20000. It just doesn't make sense

It does make sense

The first confirmed case in South Africa was on the 5th of March

The first confirmed case in the UK was on the 31st of January

@LunaTheCat and I love Jacinta! My Mum is in NZ (&other family & friends) and I am eternally grateful for her 'go hard go fast' response. Your Levels have been clear & well conveyed. People know what is/isn't allowed and it's been brilliant. Levels/bubbles.

We still has less lockdown than your L3. It's absolutely bloody ridiculous here!

I'm glad that infection rates are so low in NZ Luna but we have a much higher population than you do, a tunnel linking us to mainland Europe, and some of the busiest airports in the world, so even if we'd locked down sooner, chances are there would have been many more people already here with it to begin with.

Having said that, perhaps we should have closed our borders early (right at the very beginning), encouraged foreign nationals to leave as soon as possible, and ensured that all citizens returning were properly quarantined. Mind you, if we had done that, there would have been an absolute uproar. People in the UK don't like being told what to do.

South Africa has one of the strictest lockdowns in the world and went into lockdown when case numbers were much lower than here and before there were any deaths.
www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.in/international/news/with-south-africa-under-one-of-the-strictest-lockdowns-in-the-world-a-government-minister-just-lost-her-salary-for-lunching-with-a-friend/amp_articleshow/75096293.cms

luna the UK and New Zealand are the same size. The population of the UK is more than 10 times the population of NZ. You can’t possibly compare them. You could, perhaps, compare NZ with the Scottish highlands, where the population and death rate are probably similar. But the rest of the UK - no way.

Also, people should remember that the death rates quoted are hospital deaths. In a country where hospital treatment is free, more people are going to go to hospital. If hospital treatment is not free, people will die at home, unrecorded. Even Germany, who people seem to think has a wonderful affordable healthcare system, has approximately 85,000 people who can’t access health care due to finances.

Love all the excuses why we have larger numbers here, if not NZ, how about a comparison with Germany? They may well be calling for things to open again but they can afford to given how well they have managed it.

The Uk on the other hand:
Left airports open
No quarantine for new arrivals
Gave up testing and tracing and mumbled something about herd immunity before back tracking.
Let large scale events continue, knowing the risk
Locked down too late
Didn’t lockdown hard enough so still too many on crammed together tubes etc.
Not enough PPE resulting in NHS doctor/nurses dying.
Secret Sage committee to avoid scrutiny and accountability.

So many mistakes it’s a crime, wish I was in a country with a competent government.

This is going to have such a severe impact on our economy and I wonder why the government weren't more strict with the lockdown - in order to shorten it and lessen it's impact

How much difference would “stricter lockdown “ actually have made?

Are our airports still open and are we testing new arrivals?

How much difference would “stricter lockdown “ actually have made?

Look at Italy, Spain and France - they were stricter, their numbers are coming down significantly, they're coming out of lock down.

Yes, they're ahead of us by a couple of weeks, maybe. I don't imagine we'll be where they are in a couple of weeks' time.

Yes our airports are still open and no we're not testing or quarantining new arrivals.

But as you say we are behind them. We cannot know yet what will happen to our figures. Stricter measures are only worth implementing if they actually make a difference.

As for quarantining arrivals yes when the levels are down I agree but when it’s rife in the community is there actually much point?

Also Italy didn’t always have a stricter lockdown remember they had a stupid rule where restaurants could stay open, whereas ours were instructed to close.

Don’t get me wrong our government fucked up but I think in not locking down sooner rather than the lockdown itself not being strict enough.

LunaTheCat? yes, the countries with strict lockdowns have great results now, but what I can't understand is, are you going to keep your borders closed for many months?
If you do open them, you'll have virus flooding in, so isn't this just a delay tactic but not a resolution at all? Or is NZ happy to lock borders until treatment is found (if earlier htan vaccine)?

We did it too late, we were too soft. Possibly.

Aren't flights still coming in, from hotspot countries? How they are allowing that, I don't understand.

@pontypridd

That seems strange to me - unless people are tested before they board?

Even Germany, who people seem to think has a wonderful affordable healthcare system, has approximately 85,000 people who can’t access health care due to finances.

I agree @Mintychoc1, population density must be a factor but as I have said to you before if we calculate the estimated mortality rate at 1% - know this rate is subject to change as more data comes in - then if all the 85,000 who are insured become infected, unlikely, it would still be only 850 deaths so I don’t think the 0.1% of the German population who have no healthcare will have a significant effect on death rates. Even if this 85,000 cohort had a higher death rate than average as more may be poor, so often worse health the numbers if you calculated a 3.5% death rate the figure wouldn’t be more than 2,125, not insignificant but would not massively inflate the death rates in the long term.

I was wondering the same thing.

The lockdown in the UK is really odd.

You can actually go out all day and nobody would notice. You can go shopping, get a take away, cycle, run, walk, drive around etc

I'm staying home, but I can hear neighbours doing all sorts of things because there are lots of flats here.

The government was never clear and changed their message, so you can't just blame the people.

I think we should either have a proper lockdown, or just go for distancing like Sweden. This in between thing destroys the economy without benefiting us that much.

I would personally have gone for a full lockdown starting early March.

@Guylan

85,000 in Germany can't access health care? Linky?

yes, the countries with strict lockdowns have great results now, but what I can't understand is, are you going to keep your borders closed for many months? If you do open them, you'll have virus flooding in, so isn't this just a delay tactic but not a resolution at all? Or is NZ happy to lock borders until treatment is found (if earlier htan vaccine)?

@CatandHisKit, reading the twitter feeds, listening to videos and reading articles by various public health experts the consensus seems to be - though not a perfect solution - the best approach to keep the spread down until a vaccine or treatments are developed to at least stop the virus becoming severe will be grand scale testing, tracing contacts of those infected, and then isolating them.

@MrsKypp, I wasn’t aware of this figure until Mintychoc1 mentioned it on another thread. The 0.1% figure who have no health coverage in Germany (so with a population of 85 million that works out at 85,000) is quoted on page 12 of this document. www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/373585/Can-people-afford-to-payGermany-WHO-FP-008-4.pdf

I don’t know the details but I would have thought they would still at least get emergency care if they have no insurance coverage.

@CatAndHisKit, I should add to my comment above the infection rate numbers need to come down first through lockdown before the track, trace, isolate approach will help to keep the numbers affected down.

I would personally have gone for a full lockdown starting early March.

Yes I would too MrsKypp. I would have hated it. Conversely, I've loved the version we've had so far. But loving it is different to thinking it's achieved much. I don't.

I'm very worried that we're destroying the economy for little benefit.

the best approach to keep the spread down until a vaccine or treatments are developed to at least stop the virus becoming severe will be grand scale testing, tracing contacts of those infected, and then isolating them.

Guylan - they can't keep this up until a vaccine becomes available - or even treatments. It would smash our economy to smithereens. And if you read the article below, it explains where we need to be before grandscale testing etc can be effective.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/25/boris-johnson-lockdown-dilemma-grim-virus-data

With a stricter lockdown we could have got to that place quicker and with less cost to the economy and less cost to people's lives.

I really think that vitamin d levels might have something to do with this - Australia and New Zealand, just coming out of their summer, have been faring better than northern hemisphere countries.

We're testing more people now which is reflected in infection rates.

But hospital infection rates are half what they were at the peak of hospital infection rates and the number of people in hospital with COVID has dropped 10% in the last week.

Was that meant for this thread Toseland?

If so, how does Vitamin D levels connect with whether the lockdown here has been a waste of time?

I don't mean that rudely. I have wondered whether that is why we're allowed to go out so much and whether being outside is in fact the best place for people to be to fight this virus.

@pontypridd, I just read the Guardian article. I am not saying the lockdown at this level needs to continue for months, as you said the economy cant take it, but it needs to continue for a few more weeks until numbers come down more. These few weeks need to continue building the track, trace and isolate system - which govt claim they are finally concentrating on - which can then be effective enough to ease the lockdown and get businesses back up and running.