U.K. hospital mortality figures

[Kitchendoctor]

From the Guardian report of the update today:

Today marks a sombre day”, Hancock says, as the death toll has topped 10,000 in the UK.

A total of 19,945 people had now been admitted to hospital, he says, which means about half of all hospital admissions have died.

What is going on with our figures? Based on data from other countries, a 50% mortality rate was expected from those patients poorly enough to require admission to ICU, but should be much lower for hospitalised patients as a whole.

Are people not being admitted until their illness is much more advanced?

What else could be going on here?

Very concerning. Wish I hadn’t read it.

[Jrobhatch29]

Does it not mean thats how many are currently in hospital? Not taking into account previously discharged. We are only really testing hospital cases so that would mean 75% of the people tested werent in hospital.

[Thighmageddon]

There is dry new guidance about changing how deaths are reported to keep the figure below 1, 000 per day.

Have you got a source for that Pavlova?

[CherryPavlova]

Weekend reporting is always low.
There is dry new guidance about changing how deaths are reported to keep the figure below 1, 000 per day.

[helpfulperson]

I've found the Scottish Gov figures easy to follow. Each day they tell you the total number of tests, the total number of positives, the total number of deaths and the current numbers in hospital and the current number in ICU. There is also good explanations of the figures and why the figures produced weekly by the National Records Scotland are slightly different.

[Humphriescushion]

Yes they need to give accurate figures on this, it is very unclear and these figures are important.

[Shitsgettingcrazy]

It's not like that in every trust.

My friend has been admitted. She was having difficulty breathing. Her lips werent blue, nor did she feel like she was drowning.

They came did the usual tests (BP etc) and decided to take her in.

[Thighmageddon]

I'd like some proper data on all this rather than the muddied stuff we're being given.

I have read though that it's looking likely we will be the worst hit European country by the end of this. Probably because you have to be desperately ill before you get admitted here rather than say Italy that showed lots on oxygen rather than on ventilators, getting treated much earlier in the disease.

I'm sure I worked out the mortality rate in my area was around 9% of confirmed and admitted to hospital cases.

[glueandstick]

I’d be interested to know how full the nightingale hospital is now. It’s all gone very quiet.

[EmMac7]

This would all be so much clearer if they provided the population with proper data like almost every other country does.

[Kitchendoctor]

I remember one day this week the hospitalised figure was around 16,000 so it would seem plausible that 19,455 is a current figure, rather than total hospitalisations including previously discharged.

There doesn’t seem to be a written source for this info, so it’s difficult to know what’s going on.

So perhaps it is either a grammar fudge by Hancock or a misinterpretation.

[YeOldeTrout]

I suspect there are about 10k persons with covid currently in hospital in GB. I guess the journalists could be asked for some statistics about place of death? one of you lot tweet Peston or Kunnesberg (etc) with that request.

[Derbygerbil]

@CheekyWeeGobshite

I think you’ve got it spot on. If not the figures are even worse than they seem as many of those current in hospital will, unfortunately, die, taking those figures from 50+% to 60-70%! I don’t believe the odds are that bad!

[CheekyWeeGobshite]

Hmm, I think this could be a misunderstanding of what he said by The Guardian. If you actually listen to what he says in the press conference, he says "Across Great Britain, the number of patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus is 19,445". I would take this to mean that the current number of inpatients is 19,445 and the graphs accompanying the press conference appear to confirm this. Therefore, the figure of 19,445 does not include those who have already been discharged (either because they've died or recovered). It also seems unlikely that with over 80,000 confirmed cases since the beginning that only 19,000 including 10,000 people who've since died, would have been admitted to hospital.

[DishRanAwayWithTheSpoon]

19000 hospital admissions seems awefully low

I think its impossible to say really. Are we admitting people too late, amd they are therefore dieing when they wouldnt have? Or are we keeping people out of hospital who have been okay getting better at home.

Some of the deaths may be hospital aquired cases, in patients already very ill.

This is what concerns me ablut our 'save the nhs' culture. Whilst obviously it is important to only go to hospital if necessary there are people who already avoided going to hospital, there will be sections of the population who wont go to hospital when they need to.

[MedSchoolRat]

I thought I saw an ICNARC report which suggested 3 days in ITU was exactly typical of survivors, too. I would have said 1 day hospitalised before admission to ITU, 3 days in ITU, and 3 days afterwards before being discharged was also exactly typical for UK patients. I have references somewhere...

Chinese patients had a different duration in ITU, though.

[MedSchoolRat]

Boris was exactly typical of those who get hospitalised, in that he managed 11 days at home before being hospitalised. By 11 days you're either better or worse.

Some people died not in hospital but in other places, hospices (they were already dying of something else) or nursing homes.

Some people were admitted to hospital for something else, and then got cv19 because of the exposure they had in hospital (this is common in pandemics).

[Needsomegoodnews]

Although Boris was undeniably unwell when admitted, I do believe he went in before many community cases would have (and wouldn’t have had to wait hours for an ambulance). He was also moved promptly to ICU as they didn’t want an emergency admission. All of this means he spent less than 7 days in hospital when the average is 2-3 weeks. Also concerning is the published data relating to ICU outcomes, which account for only a fraction of the deaths, suggesting that most who are dying in hospital are not even getting to intensive care. This agrees with the suggestion that many are simply admitted too late to get help.

Having had symptoms myself for over 3 weeks, when I phoned 111 for advice in my second week with fever and shortness of breath at rest among other symptoms, I was told to call back if my fingers, lips or tongue went blue or if I could no longer speak in sentences. Given there was over an hour wait for 111 and 24 hours wait for a ‘within 6 hours’ doctor call back, you can see how easily this could happen.

[PowerslidePanda]

Surely for the best chance of survival there should be intervention before a person reaches this stage, if we all could measure blood oxygen levels at home that'd help, wouldnt it?

Depends what their threshold for taking somebody into hospital is - unfortunately, it's not necessarily the point that somebody should be getting treatment Lots of Mumsnetters have had ambulances out who've checked their O2 sats and left again regardless.

That said, I do have an oximeter myself and if I'm unlucky enough to get a serious case of coronavirus, I'll use it to judge when to go to A&E and stay put there, whether they're willing to admit me or not. They can't ignore someone deteriorating right in front of them.

[NotEverythingIsBlackandwhite]

Are people not being admitted until their illness is much more advanced?
That is pretty much the case. On the Lungs threads I read of someone who phoned 111 with breathing difficulties and they were told that if they can say half a sentence then they are not ill enough to be admitted to hospital. Another was told you have to actually be gasping for breath to be admitted.

Many on the lungs threads, in normal circumstances, would have been hospitalised. Because of the volume of infected patients, you definitely only get taken to hospital with it if you are very seriously ill.

[DivGirl]

Keeping people at home keeps our stats looking more favourable. Both in positive tests and the daily reportable deaths.

[Babyroobs]

twoHopes - When my dh was admitted to hospital with pneumonia he couldn't speak a full sentence and they rushed him straight in.

Even Boris was still at number 10 and his lips were slightly blue tinged and he was taking gasps between sentences, although I wonder how much of that was him not wanting to be admitted?

[Easilyanxious]

Aren't a lot of people just staying at home though if symptoms are mild and not going to hospital ( assuming they have it ) they are not hospitalising every single case . Lots of people seem to think they may of had it when you read posts but haven't actually had to go to hospital of course until we have a reliable antibody test we won't know for sure people have had it .

[twoHopes]

It also really worries me how late people are being taken into hospital. I had a severe chest infection last year and rang 111. They asked me if I was struggling to breathe while sitting down and I said "yes" and they responded "an ambulance is on its way". I had to convince them to cancel the ambulance as I was well enough to get in my partner's car. At the time they said anyone who says they have difficulty breathing without any exertion is an automatic ambulance send out. This seems a million miles away from what people are being told now.

[B1rdbra1n]

surely as soon as blood oxygen levels drop below optimum all of the bodies organs and tissues are compromised and the climb back to recover is significantly steeper.
Surely for the best chance of survival there should be intervention before a person reaches this stage, if we all could measure blood oxygen levels at home that'd help, wouldnt it?

[Jamclag]

Right - so sick people have to be really really sick to be treated in the UK.
It makes senses as I haven't seen any phone footage of corridors filled with patients on oxygen in UK hospitals - which the media were reporting in Italy at this stage.
I'd read that medics/virologists estimated that one in every five/six patients sick enough to require hospital treatment were likely to die? These figures suggest a lot of this group are staying in the community bumping up the CFR in hospitals.