The exit plan and schools.

[NeverGuessWho]

I know this whole thread will be hearsay, but I’m just interested in hearing people’s opinions of where schools are likely to fit in to the exit plan?

A friend thinks they will be opened early on, as this will free up more people to work, and hence enable furloughed workers to return to work. This will crucially save money.

IMHO, schools will be one of the last restrictions to be lifted. Once schools are opened, there will effectively be multiple mass gatherings in every town and city, all at the same time. Surely this will result in a surge of cases of the virus.

Unless of course, they pursue the antibodies/certified passport route?

What do people think?

[PineappleDanish]

when the government starts to relax the rules the first to go back with be those with exams pending

But there are no exams pending. All cancelled.

I have a P7 child in Scotland who is due to move school to secondary in August. All his transition days are cancelled. If as expected we're not due back until August, I would imagine that everyone will just go back at the same time. Not ideal but all of June's teaching will be lost and for students due to sit their Highers this time next year they need all the time they can get.

[greenlynx]

I don’t think they will be open until June and hopefully not until September. Schools are not a safe place at all and children can catch the virus and die the same as adults. Keeping schools closed is difficult but much more doable than coping with huge amount of ill people in hospitals.
I cried last week seeing the amount of homework my DD’s got from school, she has SEN so requires lots of one to one help from me, and it’s year 10 secondary, I would coped much better with the primary level. She also feel anxious and upset, doesn’t sleep well so our days are not easy but I would prefer this rather then her going back to school too early.

[SinkGirl]

Our local CCG are working on the assumption that the (first) local peak will be mid May. They may be wrong of course but that’s their calculation based on the information they have been given and based on the first cases in our county. Some counties will be a few weeks head of that, some later.

So I think after May half term is optimistic but perhaps they’ll reopen in June once the peak dies down. I also think it’s possible that different counties will have schools reopen at different times depending on the caseload in their county.

[Stellamboscha]

Normality needs to return as soon as possible. If this situation were to continue till September it would become the new 'normal' with devastating consequences. Am hoping the Gvt has the balls to get schools back after May bank holiday, maybe staggering a week at a time with say Y10 and Y12 first as they are next year's exam classes and suffering worst damage, followed by Years 6 and 9 and so on.

[catsandlavender]

I’m a PGCE student and my university has told us, based on guidance from the DfE, that the rest of our course will be completed online. We were due to finish mid June.

[Mumlove5]

@Stellamboscha

Agreed! I don’t think people understand how devastating this is to the economy. My brother is in finance. He keeps saying this can not happen over and over again.

Lockdown has only been 2 weeks and the economy is already tanking. Imagine 2 more weeks? 4 weeks? Impossible. The UK government knows this. They can’t and won’t allow a longterm lockdown.

This minister killed himself from looking at the economic data and what will become of this.
m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/german-minister-commits-suicide-after-virus-crisis-worries/articleshow/74877039.cms

[EachDubh]

Schools are so crowded in uk, 33 to a classroom that you can't do any form of social distancing.
A manageable way, perhaps, of safely opening schools asap would be for kids to be part time, so 1 class split in 3, 11 kids a day in, this would allow some amount of social distancing.
This however is just a thoughtbin my head but as we know children can carry, suffer from covid 19 it would seem pertinent to ensure all pupils and staff are kept as safe as possible when school reopen.
This would possibly allow for earlier opening?

[MigGril]

You know we've already hurd this about the economy. Yes this is, will have is already having probably the worst effect ever on our economy. On the world economy, when it really hits countries like India and south Africa as well it's going to be devastating. It'll be worse then the 1920's wall street crash where bankers where throwing themselves out of windows.

But that's just the way it is we either accept lossing 100,000's lives. Or the finical cost. The world will probably lose millions by the end, unless we have a vaccine soon. This is no trivial thing and how do you put a price on life.

[midgebabe]

It's not a simple trade between lives and financial impact

The 1920s show that you get the financial impact even if you let things carry on and don't try to avoid excess deaths

[midgebabe]

Actually the economist apparently reported that in the 1920 flu epidemic in USA the states that recovered finically strongest were those that had the hardest longest restrictions

[Delatron]

We know the stats and research shows it is mainly very mild or even asymptomatic in children. They aren’t as affected as older people. Yes there will always be exceptions. We should continue to shield the vulnerable but we cannot keep the economy in lockdown for 6 months....

[TheReluctantCountess]

There will be big issues with staffing in schools. Schools will have lost staff to the virus, and some staff will hand in notice at a time when it is impossible to recruit replacements.
A clear start in September doesn’t look possible.

[SquashedFlyBiscuit]

Im shielding and have a yr 6 child. Id be completely stuck if they go back for july. She's distraught at missing end of primary and I couldnt not send her in if all her friends are....

But the risk to me if she went in is huge! And I cant be the inly one like this. There would be a 2 tier system...

I am quite concerned about whatever exit strategy there is as I would obviously still be at risk....

[BangingOn]

I feel that I must be missing something with all of the talk of September. What will be different in September to now? As far as I can see it we will have no vaccine nor herd immunity. The NHS will be coming into their busy time of year and the schools opening again would cause infection rates to rise and put pressure on our healthcare system.

We’re doing the right thing now to flatten the curve and ease pressure on the NHS, but we aren’t any closer to an actual solution. Until we have herd immunity or an effective vaccine we will need to keep some form of lockdown or really well implemented social distancing.

My social media is full of people posting things like ‘if we all stay inside for 4 weeks it will be gone’ or ‘stay inside and in 12 weeks we can all go out and enjoy summer’ which is massively misleading.

I don’t know what the solution is, in fact I’m not sure there is one.

[Appuskidu]

The poster who explained how her schools in China have gone back (@ShanghaiDiva ?) said that her child’s school only has 15 to a class, so much easier to practise social distancing. I wonder how it’s working in schools with 35+ to a class?

I can’t see schools going back until the vulnerable group are told they are fine to carry on as normal. Schools were starting to shut 3 weeks ago because they couldn’t staff them without these members of staff. Until it’s fine for them to be back, many can’t open.

[gingajewel]

I agree with the thoughts on the economy and feel that if this goes on for more than another 4-6 weeks it will be irrecoverable. However as the rest of the world is in exactly the same position is this better or worse? Surely if we can’t do normal trading with these countries everyone is in the same boat so to speak? I have no clue if this is correct I was just thinking that as everyone is the same no one country has a vantage point? Industries (with the exception of pubs etc) are trying to carry on with the vast majority of people working from home or carrying on going to their places of work? My oh works in a steel factory and he is in still. I work in hr and am working from home.
My thoughts are lockdown for another 3 weeks then bans slowly lifted with schools going in one year at a time for a few weeks. And then I guess see where we go from that point? I do agree we can’t carry on going on like this for longer than probably 4-6 weeks without devastating results.

[Tarararara]

I feel that I must be missing something with all of the talk of September. What will be different in September to now? As far as I can see it we will have no vaccine nor herd immunity. The NHS will be coming into their busy time of year and the schools opening again would cause infection rates to rise and put pressure on our healthcare system.

I remember reading an article at the start of this, explaining via modelling how children being in schools, can be used as a valve to increase/decrease the rate of infection in society to within the capacity of the NHS.

So once we are beyond this Easter peak, better to reopen schools and businesses, just for a few weeks until cases start rising again, then closing for a couple of weeks again to dampen the spread, to ensure NHS is working just within capacity throughout the summer months (and accelerating herd immunity), rather than starting this process just before winter.

[WindFlower92]

Apparently our council (Portsmouth) has been discussing no intakes for colleges this year and schools reopening in January for a worst case scenario.

[Delatron]

I think the question is how long will the vulnerable group need to shield for? Until a vaccine is found? That could be until next year? Or until numbers come down to a manageable level?

Are they shielding vulnerable groups in China?

[CallmeAngelina]

Transition for secondary schools is way down the list as a reason for schools to reopen.
It only has even become a "thing" in the last few years. In "my" day, we just turned up in September and got on with it. We survived.

[Delatron]

Yes @Tarararara I read that article and that is why I think they’ll go back in June. To control the second peak and make sure it’s in August.

Pointless to have lockdown until January. The economy will take a huge hit, people’s livelihoods will suffer and then when everyone gets back to normal in Jan the virus will just reappear.

I think people need to stop thinking we are in lockdown until the virus has gone and we’re all safe to go out. That won’t happen. We are controlling the spread and the waves of this so the NHS copes. Whilst trying not to completely hammer the economy in the meantime.

[GU24Mum]

I agree that I think the schools are likely to go back for a small number of weeks in late June-ish. Other than possibly going in for a day to "leave" school with a bit more fun than happened in March, they won't need to have the Y11s and Y13s in school.

The government has to try lifting things to see what happens - clearly not now but late June is still a good 10 weeks away.

Hard as it sounds, the world aim isn't to stop people getting and sadly dying - it's to keep it to manageable levels and levels which are considered an acceptable balance against the economic consequences.

[Mascotte]

@Tarararara that makes sense.

[Newgirls]

I think part time in May/June for some years. Anyone (teacher or child) with underlying health issues doesn’t go back yet.

If we are mostly self isolating for say 6 weeks then where will new infections come from?

[Bluntness100]

I also think they need to open them in may latest. Likely up to a certain age and for parents where no parent can stay at home, there will literally be no other option. They need to get the economy moving again.

In the meantime they need to stamp this disease out as much as possible, reduce the numbers etc,

Social distancing will still apply. Hospitality and social events and venues remain shut down, we will still only be allowed to go out to work, or for exercise or shopping. Schools will need to put in place social distancing measures as far as possible just like work places, drop off and collections managed the same, there will be no school events etc.

There will be still a huge amount of restrictions, social distancing will be required from all workplaces, shops, schools where they can and for parents, break times, everything carefully managed, parents where one person works from home will likely be told the children have to also stay home.

They simply will have no other option.