The EU

[The80sweregreat]

These last few months and days have been gruelling with regards the election. Can you imagine how its going to be with the thought of months of debate over the EU? Surely this will detract people from whats really going on (welfare cuts NHS etc etc) and lead to all kinds of other problems with the yes and no campaigns trying to win votes. Its hard for me to get my head around and i do listen to the radio and watch political programes to try and educate myself a bit too. I just fear it will drag on and get people bogged down in political dogma. I am dreading it really.

[RedToothBrush]

Labour are in a pickle with the issue just as much as the Conservatives.

If businesses don't want to leave the EU and Labour don't represent that then they become alienated from the business community and their interests. They do not become any more electable amongst middle class small business owners.

If on the other they don't pander to the ex-Labour voting UKIP dissenters, and oppose staying in Europe then they can't win those voters back.

In essence they have to support the Conservatives in trying to make reforms and hope like hell that this satisfies everyone before we even start getting to the point of a referendum.

The problem is that a vote on a referendum is likely to come before that so Labour will have to jump one way or another sooner than it becomes an issue for the Conservatives.

The SNP is much better placed on the issue for this reason. They have already set their stall out and been given 'approval' by their success in the election.

Equally there isn't a debate for the Lib Dems. They are pro-Europe.

[namechange0dq8]

une last year it stood at 47% out, 39% in and the rest undecided

The worrying part is the age demographics. Older voters are more likely to poll no, more likely to vote (electoral turnout skews heavily "older") and there are a lot of them (1964 was the biggest year for births). People aged 50+ also perceive themselves to have less to lose. And just as the post-election debate is rendered toxic by people claiming that all Tory voters are baby-eating vampires, yelling "everyone who votes No is a racist" (which is a likely narrative from the headbangers) won't work.

The great myth of left-wing politics is the progressive majority. It's the mythical tendency of the British electorate to want to vote for progressive, quasi-socialist policies given a chance. It was the myth that drove the AV referendum (the subtext was "this will ensure a permanent Lab/LD coalition" which is appears isn't the winner its proponents thought). It's the permanent myth that the Labour Party can win by tacking left, which 1983 doesn't appear to disabuse anyone of, and that centrist politics somehow don't work (hello, who's the three election winning Labour leader who isn't Tony Blair? Oh yes, no-one). Even Attlee pissed his majority away and was out of office in a little over five years. There is no progressive majority (and spray painting war memorials doesn't make one more likely) and people campaigning have to remember that.

[HesterShaw]

It worries me very much.

There will be no way to find out actual truth - it will simply be buried behind a load of political spin and half truths. Just like during this election, people will base their opinion on what Murdoch tells them.

For the first time in my life, I have been ashamed to be British this week, not because of the Conservative result, but because people have been so dominated by the press and by fear and by scaremongering.

[namechange0dq8]

but because people have been so dominated by the press and by fear and by scaremongering.

That's why Labour are electorally doomed, sadly.

Too many of its supporters aren't willing to rigorously analyse why people vote Tory, and fall back on "because they are gullible idiots". It's a facile argument for two reasons: firstly it isn't true, and secondly because even if it were true, it doesn't offer an answer. It offers a smug position for Labour insiders to claim it wasn't their fault, but provides no insights into how to actually get elected.

[VeryPunny]

I can't see anyone mounting a serious Exit campaign. DC and the senior Tories are pro-EU, mainly because of the business benefits. My understanding is that Labour is pro EU. DC has offered up the referendum as a way to shut up the backbenchers - there will be a vote, it will be for the UK to remain in the EU, and then he can tell the Eurosceptics to get bent. Handily, he can use the referendum to get a few concessions from the EU in the meantime.

The UK acts as a convenient foil in the EU - it asks a lot of awkward questions that bi suspect many other countries want to ask,but aren't prepared to rock the boat. So I don't see the EU really trying to get rid of us.

I can't see anyone mounting a credible Out campaign.

[HesterShaw]

I didn't say I was a Labour supporter. I didn't vote Labour and I never have :)

I understand that this is what Labour have been saying, but I arrived at this conclusion all by myself. Amazing eh?

You only had to glance at the headlines over the last couple of weeks to have seen how distasteful and unfair they were. You simply cannot deny that.

All I want is for there to be a freely available compilation of Actual Facts on the issue, without having some media mogul's influence all over it.

[grovel]

veryPunny, agree completely.

The EU know that they have got to find a new settlement with the non-Euro countries anyway if they are going to get the closer integration they need to make the Euro viable.

[Mistigri]

I'm surprised by how many people still think that the pro EU camp is guaranteed to win.

I thought that until recently, although I was concerned about the negative impact on business of even holding a referendum (if you were a manufacturer considering investment in a new plant to serve EU markets, would you put it in the UK at the moment?).

Now though, we've seen what can happen when the presumed winning side gets complacent. Yes, the scots voted to stay in, but it was far closer than anyone would have believed when the referendum was agreed, AND that was with committed campaigning from both Scotland's then-majority party and the business community. And that committed campaigning turned out to be their political downfall (does anyone really see labour fighting Cameron's EU fight for him? Really? labour will be officially in favour of remaining in the EU but that does not necessarily mean they will have the stomach for another referendum battle).

I do not believe that the Tories will run an effective pro Europe campaign. Their commons majority is very slender, leaving cameron at the mercy of his eurosceptic backbenchers.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong :-/

[The80sweregreat]

The whole EU thing really needs to be sorted out fast. I know its not as easy as that etc etc, but it just muddies the waters all the time. With the rise of Nicola Sturgeon too, it appears to be grabbing all the headlines with little about what the new government will do for us - where the cuts are going to be. The tories may well turn on themselves, as was suggested in another thread, they are ruthless bastards after all and it will just drag on and on. If DC does do a deal with the ones in power in Brussels, whats t he betting he will come home and lie to the british public and lock us out of a vote? Who knows with this lot! ( I know I am being simplistic here, but I do think it will detract people from what is really going on..)

[RedToothBrush]

I'm surprised by how many people still think that the pro EU camp is guaranteed to win.

I don't. That's why I'm worried. And why I hope it gets headed off before a referendum.

[caroldecker]

The Left wing cannot support being in the EU as it bans state support (nationalisation) of industry, hence the 1983 opposition to it. Many (most?) of the Left wing (not necessarily current Labour) positions on business would be contrary to EU rules.

[RedToothBrush]

I believe several European countries have found various creative ways to get around that ban though.

One of our issue in the UK is we follow EU rules to the letter whereas there is a certain amount of rule bending that goes on elsewhere.

[namechange0dq8]

One of our issue in the UK is we follow EU rules to the letter

What the Germans call vorauseilender Gehorsam: preemptive obedience, finding rules to obey even if no-one else does.

[VeryPunny]

DC doesn't need to count on his backbenchers for support in parliament with regards to votes on EU - he knows that most of the opposition are pro EU. The backbenchers only become an issue if he needs to horse trade with them in return for votes on other matters - but I can't see any backbenchers not following the whip on most of the Tory policies, so DC is safe there.

Going straight for a referendum has neatly neutralised the back benchers - the EU was the one issue they would rebel over, so he's not chancing a Commons vote, but going straight to the country. Big business will mount a decent stay in campaign, aided by both Tories and Labour. Those two parties can work together - they did it for the AV referendum.

[HesterShaw]

The Left wing cannot support being in the EU as it bans state support (nationalisation) of industry

What about the SNCF? How do the French manage? I agree lots of the perceived problem is that the UK implements laws and rules to the letter while they see other countries getting away with not doing.

[namechange0dq8]

What about the SNCF?

The EU doesn't prevent state ownership of railways, and we know this, because Network Rail (nee Railtrack) is state owned. There are, however, rules on rail/wheel division so that operations need to be separately accounted. It's OK to have both the trains and the rails owned by the state, so long as entities who aren't the state can operate trains without being unfairly treated (ie, so trains can run across borders without artificial barriers). So OBB, in Austria, are entirely state owned, but there's a private operator who runs trains from Salzburg to Vienna in competition with OBB, and DB, owned by the German state, run some trains through from Germany into Austria over OBB track.

Other countries manage this without selling off the whole estate. The UK doesn't. Presumably, other countries have cleverer policy makers.

[HesterShaw]

Ah ok. Thank you :)

[Mistigri]

In addition, many publicly-owned EU entities now take advantage of EU competition legislation to compete in other EU markets for eg EDF is a French publicly-owned utilities company with substantial business in the UK.

[RedToothBrush]

Alitalia is an interesting case.
Renault is another.

Also see Kraft/Cadburys takeover and the UK government.

[namechange0dq8]

many publicly-owned EU entities now take advantage of EU competition legislation to compete in other EU markets

Precisely. The rules are the same for everyone, but the interpretation of those rules is for each country to decide. Our civil servants gold plate; French and German civil servants sand down the rules to make them as thin and flexible as possible. If there's ambiguity, our civil servants take the most prescriptive line even if it's bad for Britain, while French and German civil servants look out for their own country. And that's why German state-owned DB and Dutch state-owned Abellio are running franchises on the UK railways, and why French state-owned EDF are running UK power stations: because their civil servants look out for their country, while our civil servants look out for everyone's interests other than this country's.

[caroldecker]

Although state aid for SNCF's cross channel company SeaFrance was deemed illegal

[Mistigri]

The rules allow state ownership but don't allow "state aid" that confers an unfair competitive advantage. This affects both private and public companies - for eg ryanair recently had to repay money to french authorities (rebates in return for basing itself at certain regional airports) because this state aid was deemed to have given it an unfair competitive advantage.

I'd have though that most centre and right wing voters would think that laws ensuring fair competition were rather a good thing but hey ho.

[namechange0dq8]

The rules allow state ownership but don't allow "state aid" that confers an unfair competitive advantage.

And properly so. But the solution to that problem is proper accounting and audit, not flogging off national assets to foreign governments.

[MaidOfStars]

I am learning greatly from this thread....

[livingzuid]

Just going back to red's point on going to parliament first before the referendum is held. I wondered how DC was going to do this. He has a slim majority but hardly enough to push through an referendum on the EU if all the others vote against.

So how is this referendum a 'given' when parliament has yet to agree to it in the first place? A promise made in an election campaign to get the popularist vote (always dangerous) does not necessarily translate into reality!

I don't think people perceive how intertwined we are in Europe and the massive impact it could have.