GCSEs 2018

[Localher0]

As we approach results day I’m starting to wonder how accurate the predicted grades from the mocks could be. Given that the teachers didn’t have much to go on in terms of past papers how would they estimate the grade boundaries? At DS’s school very few kids were predicted 9s but I’ve read here that lots of kids have been predicted them so it’s really hard to tell.

[GettinTrimmer]

I saw this thread a while ago which may be of interest to you:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/secondary/3306170-End-of-year-reminder-Flightpaths-are-bollocks-schools-giving-working-at-9-1-GCSE-grades-to-KS3-kids-are-bullshitting

[TeenTimesTwo]

I'm just an interested bystander this year.

I suspect it is a stab in the dark, and a 7 prediction could turn into anything from a 5 to a 9.

It seems to me that some schools will have reacted better than others to the new specs and question types. So although the same % will be getting 7+ and A/A*, which children get which results will be more school/teacher dependent than under the old specs when everyone was well versed in what was needed.

Reading here about how late some schools finished some syllabuses (syllabi?) compared with others I think there will be more surprises in both directions than usual.

[Oneteen]

I suspect that the top schools (both Independent/grammar etc) will have compared their cohorts year on year...so if you have a top Indie or GS school who normally get 90% plus with A*...I dare say they will be predicting 90% plus grade 8 + and maybe further refining the 8+ into probable grade 9's based on whatever % children will achieve grade 9's (because I believe this is already preset this year in each subject). I think its probably harder for the middle grades and the schools where they have a truly mixed range of abilities (just my thoughts).

[clary]

Grade boundaries were a guesstimate based on maths or English boundaries. So for my subject (MFL) we were advised to use maths as it is tiered higher and foundation too.

We did, and scaled them up a bit, but even then it was a guess. One of my students got what I thought was a 7 in the mock, but really? I didn't know, could be a 6, maybe even a low 8. I think any school predicting or targeting a lot of 9s is foolish tbh.

[Localher0]

Thanks for your replies - it does confirm what I have sort of suspected. That is - the predicted grades this year were a bit of a crap shoot. I've just been reading through some posts on the student room and am amazed at how many students think that they're going to get lots of 9s. I'm pretty sure no-one at DS's school was predicted so many (if any!). Even the Daily Telegraph was carrying this article www.telegraph.co.uk/education/0/gcse-results-day-new-9-1-grading-system-many-students/ stating that a 90% drop in the number of students receiving the top grades is expected this year...... Gah!! I just don't know what to think or how to structure expectations this year.

[clary]

Op for contact on grade 9s

About 700 number grade exams were taken in DD's year 2017 in her school (ie 230 students x three - eng lit, eng Lang, maths).

This is a high achieving leafy comp. Overall, there were I think 7 grade 9s, Inc one student who got 2. The picture was v similar in the school where I taught - one student got two english 9s, one got maths and four others got one English.

So that's about 1% - not high is it?

[clary]

For context, not contact!!

[Oneteen]

Clary - It varies my DN's school (grammar) 83 out of 336 entries were grade 9 last year in Eng/Maths...so nearly 25% of girls who sat the exams last year got a 9....so I actually think some of the top grammar schools will be predicting high level's of grade 9's and they may feel fairly confident with those predictions too.

[clary]

Yes I'd expect a selective school to get a higher percentage of 9s. :) that's a good rate tho

[GinWorksForMe]

Our school did not give predictions, only 'targets'. I have no idea what they based the targets on as there was very little communication from the school about it all. But it's a good (state) school and DS is pretty hard working so we've just trusted them and gone with it. Be interesting to see what the results are next week. I wonder if the teachers are waiting as anxiously as the parents? I'd forgotten about it all since the exams but am starting to feel a few nerves now. More than DS, I'd say.

Good luck to everyone waiting for results either this week or next.