Estimated/Predicted GCSE results?

[Gracegrapecherry]

My DD just started her GCSE coursework in Yr9 and I was wondering what her estimated GCSE results would look like. She was offered an academic scholarship to an independent girls' school in Hampton. Sadly, they don't give out what grades she's achieving in terms of the national curriculum but she's doing very well in school. She got Level 6 Maths and Level 5 English for her SATS in Year 6... I was just wondering what this would mean for her GCSE results when she takes them in 2020. Thank you!

[Fffion]

Everyone works on Pearson Steps now, and no one knows how the new GCSE grades will work out.

I would suspect that LEH is more concerned with potential rather than primary school attainment.

You really need to direct your questions to them.

[ReinettePompadour]

My DD is in the same year as yours. She gained level 6 SATs in both English and Maths. At parents evening last week her predictions based on a computer program they use had her predicted as a 7.4 in Maths and 7.6 in English. For context she hates these subjects and doesnt try in either lesson she just keeps her head down.

They also said these predictions mean toffee and realistically they would be surprised if she didn't gain an 8 in these subjects. But if they mean nothing then its plausible that she could also achieve 5s across the board.

[Lonecatwithkitten]

DD in year 9 at independent school and Gas started GCSE course in some subjects. Maths and English are being marked on what the school saw in the summer for these subjects. So the girls are being given marks as if they took GCSE now DD got the equivalent of level 6 in Maths and if took GCSE now would probably get a 5. Other subjects where new GCSEs have not been sat they are getting raw percentages and are aware of their position within their set.

[BertrandRussell]

If she' been offered the scholarship I'm not sure why you need to know-am I missing something?

[Orangeplastic]

Estimates and targets aren't worth giving any thought towards they may work at a year group level but for the individual....it's all a bit of fluff.

[MaisyPops]

Estimates and targets aren't worth giving any thought towards they may work at a year group level but for the individual....it's all a bit of fluff
This ^^
And why does it matter? Surely if a student is working hard and listening to the feedback from their teacher to improve they will do as well as possible.

I would love to get rid of target grades at school. mind you I'd also like to reduce the number of parents telling their children it doesn't matter as long as they get a 4 to get into college

[Thegiantofillinois]

In my school, if they come in on a 5, target is a 7 or 8, regardless of how puberty/drugs/ family shit affects kids. Doesn't matter to the kids(as long as they get into college) but it can screw careers.

[MaisyPops]

Thegiantofillinois
That's oddly high. Talk about pressure on staff and students!

Ours is high 5 at KS2 tends to be a 7
Level 5 is a 6 target
Level 4 entry is a 5 target

That's the minimum we'd expect. Many students do overacheive. We don't give out 8s+ as targets but do get loads of 8s and 9s on results day.

[Orangeplastic]

I agree Maisy, sometimes there is no impact for example in Year 7, dd met her end of Year 8 target after 2 terms in Year 7 - she's not making amazing progress the target was just widely off the mark - but as long as the target wasn't limiting in itself I wasn't too worried.
Ds (who works very hard) just got his report and his computer generated GCSE target for French is 6, the teacher's estimate is a 6 too - so she thinks he'll meet this target - sounds good? But ds has been getting scores above that, quite a few 9's, 8's and 7's (no 6's) - only one 5 - in listening, which is a skill that develops over time and he is working on it independently. He loves French and to see that his teacher thinks he was only capable of a 6 has really punched him in the guts! Again I have to talk him about what a load of nonsense these targets are - and encourage him to defy their low expectations, it's very frustrating.

[noblegiraffe]

I looked at my Y10 FFT targets the other day and they seem to have just said KS2 5B+ = 8, 6B+ = 9. The proportion of kids who got those grades at KS2 doesn't match the proportion of kids who will get those grades at GCSE so this seems a bit ambitious.

[Thegiantofillinois]

You're telling me! Ours definitely didn't overachieve this year. We have massive issues with complacency.

[youarenotkiddingme]

My ds is year 9 too! (Not at indi)

He got level 4 English, 5 science and 6 maths for sats.

Using the ‘flight path’ this predicts him a 6 across the board.

Realistically he’ll get 7 for computing, and 6 hopefully for maths and science. (Although maths target is 5 ).

Due to LD he most likely won’t even get a 4 in other subjects although may just scrape passes.

Totally agree with above poster who said it may work as a good prediction but doesn’t work for individuals and doesn’t seem accurate.

[pointythings]

Our school's target flex based on how the pupils change and develop. There is a Pearson-based target, but the school sets its own based on what is happening with the pupil alongside - needless to say these make more sense. DD1's targets given at the start of Yr 11 were very close to the mark - she was 1 mark off the A she was projected in History and got 8s in English instead of 7s, but that was because the writing assignments suited her and she really enjoyed the literature. Her Pearson-based targets were bobbins.

DD2 is currently predicted 6 and 7, but so was DD1 at this stage - 1 term into Yr 10. Her English targets are already being adjusted upwards based on current progress and so are her French, Geography and History. I reckon by the start of Yr 11 they'll be pretty good.

[noblegiraffe]

youare how on earth can a kid who got a 6 in their Maths SATs have a target of a 5? or even a flight path of a 6? That's bonkers low.

[thisagain]

My daughter got 6 Maths and 6 Reading in year 6 and they have made her targets far too high for GCSE. She is now Year 11 and aiming to get all 7's and above with the exception of dance, where she is weaker. Her teachers have given targets of 8/9 which have largely been based off these SATS. In dance she is aiming to get a 6 (because this is realistic for her) yet initially she was predicted an 8 based off SATS. It tends to make the whole thing a bit of a nonsense, especially as it is v hard to accurately predict an 8/9.

[Fffion]

I’ve been doing a lot of work in the last couple of weeks on targets based on MidYIS- all subjects, all year groups.

Once I converted MidYIS KS3 predictions to Pearson Steps, and compared the to MidYIS 9 - 1 predictions, in 90% of cases, the two numbers were the same.

That means a GCSE grade 6 in Y11 follows on from a Step 6 in Year 9. I’m not sure if this is how it is meant to be, or if it is just coincidence.

As for targets, they are fine and proper for teachers. For students, they should be encouraged to do their very best, and not do just enough to get a B, or whatever. I have never understood this type of motivation.