At the risk of sounding a bit dim, and given that the first round of the new GCSEs have not been taken yet, are year 8 targets plucked from thin air, having no actual data to rely on? ie. how can FFT targets possibly predict the higher grades when no-one actually knows how they will look nationally?
the teachers on MN say the predictions are fairly plucked out of mid air.
Actually I think the Art-of-stating-a-target might be in figuring out roughly what trajectory a kid is on (top 1%, bottom 10%, middle of the middle) and mapping that onto the percentile that a number grade is supposed to correspond to (like a 9 is supposed to be, perhaps, the top 1.5%). Although our school just has a top band of "7 to 9" for the top 10% in ability (even if they might actually be the top 0.5%).
I don't pay much attention because I don't need to know, it will be what it will be. Just grateful that DS has a good attitude.