Why has everything gone to shit?

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

Bear with me here.
This was a referendum. It is indicative. We are still part of the EU. The Commons has yet to decide on what we will do. Yes the vote was to leave but the majority did not vote to leave. The money markets started having a massive flap as soon as Newcastle declared. Companies are making people redundant and threatening to move overseas.
Cameron has given notice. Remain and Brexit leaders are hiding.
The PLP are rebelling against Corbyn.
The SNP is posturing.
The EU Commissioners are telling us to crack on and leave.
But nothing has actually changed. A majority of voters have expressed a non binding opinion
Why?
It's a referendum not a decision.
If we don't invoke A50, what happens?
If we pitch up in Berlin and say, yes there was a referendum and we need to decide whether to act on it but right now it's business as usual?
Everyone is carrying on as if this is it. But it isn't.

[antimatter]

If we don't invoke A50, what happens? - nothing I believe

[NameChanger22]

I really hope you are right and Cameron can just decide not to invoke A50. David Cameron needs to do this to put our safety first.

Or, we have another referendum in a month or so. Hopefully that will give some people time to realise the consequences of voting leave. There were be rioting from the Brexiters if we don't leave Europe. But there will be rioting anyway and much worse (probably war) if we do leave.

I think we all need to act now by informing Brexiters and campaigning to make sure we stay in the EU. There is far too much at stake to just be passive about it or say 'well, that's democracy'. The country made the biggest mistake in history, I really hope it's not too late. Everyone deserves a second chance to make a better informed decision.

[Kummerspeck]

I disagree. I don't think the status quo is an option as Europe, going forward, will not be as stable as many think it is currently. The effects of mass migration, high unemployment, failing economics and more are taking their toll on the EU and I have as many concerns about remaining in as I do about leaving.

I think Remain have got so swept up in their own hysteria that no-one is thinking logically

[Spinflight]

That's the trouble with trying to scare people, sometimes they get scared!

I think there are Londoners who do nothing but stare at the Thames expecting godzilla to appear and flatten their city because some tinpot EU funded idiot said it would happen! Nothing but sheep in that city...

Don't worry I'll support a second referendum but I think they should be equally spaced.

The world might be a different place in 2057 but worth the wait for the hysterical. :)

[EarthboundMisfit]

Why Berlin?

[justbogoff]

Because we knew what was going to happen and now it is.

[Mistigri]

The one thing that businesses hate most is uncertainty. You can plan sensibly for known risks, but it's very difficult to plan appropriately in a situation where you don't know what the legal and trade framework you operate in is going to look like in two years.

What do companies do when they face an uncertain future? The very first thing they do is stop hiring. The second thing they do is to scale back capital investment - most investments have timescales of well over two years (the supposed period for brexit) so they need a reasonable degree of certainty over a long period before companies will commit to them.

Let's take my employer as an example. Its UK plant quite a big producer of a certain type of widget that is primarily exported to the EU. Demand for widgets is rising, but the widgets concerned belong to a class of goods that would be significantly disadvantaged by a WTO-type arrangement for trade with the EU. What should this company do now, if it needs to make a decision to expand its UK factory? The obvious answer is that it should either do nothing - wait and see until the situation gets clearer - or, if it urgently needs new capacity, consider expanding one of its EU plants instead.

While individual decisions like this are relatively insignificant for the UK economy (though significant on a local scale) the point is that every single manufacturing business in the UK will be going through the same thought process and considering whether they really need to take on those graduates due to start in September, or whether they really needs to invest in new capacity right now, and if so where they should put it. And it's not just UK businesses; foreign companies will also be considering their investment in the UK.

All this adds up. This is what the markets are reacting to.

[WhatsGoingOnEh]

Cameron said that he will respect the wishes of the UK. He didn't say, "Thanks for voting - you've sure given us food for thought!" So the World is proceeding on the assumption that it's going to happen.

Imagine if it were reversed - if we'd voted to Remain, but the government went ahead and invoked article 50. We'd all be up in arms!

So I don't think the solution is as simple as the government deciding not to act on the referendum. Plus, our EU commissioner has already resigned and been replaced. Juncker can't wait for us go (it seems). Sturgeon is ramping up to demand a second Indy ref...

If Article 50 is NOT going to be invoked then somebody needs to make that VERY CLEAR, very soon,

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

Food for thought there. I can see that businesses need to plan and make decisions but hearing tales of people made redundant on Friday morning seems an OTT response right now. Panic spreads and surely the first priority is getting things under control.
Earthbound why Berlin? I believe that there's a meeting of EU leaders there this week.
What's Cameron said he'd respect the wishes but he's already reneged on that and flounced. He's not going to invoke A50. It has to wait for his successor in October.
Nobody wants to deal with the 'hard shit'.
Meanwhile the uncertainty continues.
This government have turned out to be an even bigger shower of shit than I imagined possible.

[ChardonnayKnickertonSmythe]

It happened because the Referendum was hijacked for party political reasons.

It was because democracy was exploited for petty personal interests.

[chantico]

The reason it seems like that now is because the doom/grief wankers are still having an emotional outpouring.

Companies have contingency plans - normally a set of options - but no-one sensible will have decided which option let alone implemented it until there is some idea of what the new arrangements might be like. The serious players are having a pause for reflection, and the horse-trading will start on Monday.

Big nasty consequences, quite possible at some point. Gone to shit already? Only if you listen to the fear-mongers.

(eg JP Morgan having to issue clarification that it will be examining its structures and might relocate some roles, in response to the hyperbole 'they're off' that did the rounds for a while).

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

Chardonnay agreed. Was going to disagree that that was the reason for the shambles of the campaign but with DC and GO failing to lead, nobody else stepping up and now the PLP fighting again it is looking that way.

chant yes I do feel everyone's running about shouting "We're Doomed!" and people need to get a grip. The government need to get a grip. Business needs to get a grip. Making people redundant within hours of the result, wall to wall media coverage, all raising the tempo to fever pitch.

[Mistigri]

It happened because the Referendum was hijacked for party political reasons. It was because democracy was exploited for petty personal interests.

The first part isn't really true at all - it wasn't hijacked - the reason we had a referendum at all was nothing to do with "democracy" but to do with Cameron hoping to secure a second term by buying off his eurosceptic colleagues and preventing a flight to Ukip.

You do not need referendums in order to have democracy; we have a representative democracy because it is difficult to achieve sensible solutions to difficult questions if you have to ask the man in the street for permission every time you take a complex or controversial decision. Referendums can work well as a means of letting people get involved in decision-making if you ask them to choose between two well-defined positions (as was the case with the referendum on a form of proportional representation).

[Mistigri]

And people aren't saying "we're doomed" - most educated people know perfectly well that we're not, but people who do lose their jobs as a result of this may find it harder to take an objective view. In fact, much of the discussion has not been of the "we're doomed" variety but a much more nuanced discussion of how the government (and the opposition, FWIW) dig themselves out of the hole they deliberately stepped into.

[justbogoff]

Sorry, no-one is made redundant in a day, there is a process, which starts with a letter of communication stating that a certain role is under consideration of redundancy.

We don't know how bad the situation will be, so no-one can be sure right now what the correct approach is.

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

People on MN have been talking about redundancies and doom. My personal view is that the uncertainty and lack of leadership, knee jerk reaction and recriminations are causing most of the hoo hah. And that it shouldn't be happening.

[Mistigri]

We've just voted to leave the world's largest trading bloc, and now we're told that there is no plan. You think the financial markets shouldn't be concerned?!

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

No we haven't. We have expressed a non binding desire to the government to leave. It has to be passed through Parliament and Article 50 invoked before anything changes. Today we are still fully paid up members of the EU.
The government having its own personal meltdown which is a very poor show and they need to step up and deal with it.

[Mistigri]

a non binding desire

Good luck explaining that to 17 million voters.

Markets hate uncertainty, and they especially don't like it when governments pull stupid stunts and turn out to have no plan B.

The government has spent the last several weeks accusing each other of being nazi supporters (I paraphrase, but only slightly). Do you expect them to just pretend the referendum didn't happen?!

[GiddyOnZackHunt]

Well they're not exactly doing anything now are they? Looks like they've got their eyes closed and their fingers in their ears.

[PlatoTheGreat]

The thing is, on the EU pov, it will not be business as usual and certainly not when the UK is still 'deciding' whether the vote of the people is actually worth listening to or not.
I'm personally a bit at loss as why the MP wouldn't actually do as the population has told them (that's the point of referendum. It might not be legally biding but why having one if you then don't follow it and in effect tell people that you just don't care about what they think? That would be a political suicide).

But more importantly, the whole campaign has set the tone as to what the UK sees as important and what they will not accept. Immigration and the free movement of people within the EU, payment to the EU, wanting 'your country back' etc etc. More than half of the population has voted for that and the Remain camp hasn't been that vocal about all the good things coming with the EU either.
From that pov, the EU will be less than happy at the way iot has been portrayed by both sides or by what the UK clearly expect out the EU, because it is so far from its aspiration : a strong political Europe that will be able to match countries such as the US, China or Russia (Because of its economioc strength as a group, its army, etc etc).
The vote is also likely to start some issues in other coutnries where the far right has started to be more vocal. They won't like the fact the UK has given more ammunitions to these groups.

In that context, thinking that 'it's business as usual' is naive to say the least.

[PlatoTheGreat]

Well they're not exactly doing anything now are they? Looks like they've got their eyes closed and their fingers in their ears.

Yes because we have a PM that will NOT implement the consequences of the a vote he was against. Who would?
And as explained in other threads, the Leave proponents actually didn't quite believe they would win and are now shitting themselves that they might actually follow through and implement something that will EXTREMELY HARD to do.
That is if you are happy to see BoJo or Farage as PM.
And if anyone else gets top be PM, then what do you expect? That they will implement something that they believe is wrong and agaInst whAt they defend?
Politically, the situation is more than tense and unstable (and again the EU doesn't like politically unstable countries, with very good reasons)