BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

(571 Posts)
OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 10:57:36

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 31-Dec-13 12:10:18

Don't worry, I find it quite challenging to keep up with a couple of threads when they get busy and there is a lot more weather to go I'm afraid.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Tue 31-Dec-13 09:22:03

Sorry kitten, never thought about the other thread. I suppose this one isn't relevant anymore because Christmas is over now. I will go on the other thread. I'm not on it yet so it doesn't appear in TIO.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 31-Dec-13 08:39:58

Sorry I've not been keeping both threads updated.

GloriaSmud Tue 31-Dec-13 07:38:11

Some weather warnings for today and tomorrow. <sigh> the South and SW are forecast for heavy rain again.

GloriaSmud Mon 30-Dec-13 14:16:03

Sunshine breaking through here too. We had a gust of 27mph at 11.18am but the wind's easing off now. The temperature's dropped too ~ from a high of 10.5 2 hours ago, we're down to 8.3C now.

Monday's storm looks awful ~ think west coast of Ireland and NW/western bits of Scotland are going to get a battering again.

DameDeepRedBetty Mon 30-Dec-13 11:37:07

Rain stopped, definite signs of sunlight. Squeee!

Wet and wild where I am in North Somerset today. Mental cat is not leaving his chair!

We are off to center parcs longleat this weekend, I'm very glad we are reasonably close to the main dome now. I'm guessing the heavy showers that the Met Office are predicting for the weekend are going to be a bit special?

We will definitely look at an alternative route to get home on Monday 6th - we usually travel across the Mendips but they might be impassable in places if BadKitten is right. (And you usually are!)

DameDeepRedBetty Mon 30-Dec-13 08:42:08

BettyCat has looked through the catflap, considered the matter carefully, and decided it's far too horrible to make her usual trip to the sad little corner of the garden where once grew a patch of mint. We've got a litter tray for these occasions, which she has used for her morning poop! Last time she made a deposit there was the 23rd, and before that was the St Jude storm.

Helenagrace Mon 30-Dec-13 08:36:39

Haven't sampled the temperature but it's blowing a hoolie outside here in West Sussex.

GloriaSmud Mon 30-Dec-13 08:00:43

'Tis blustery here (Leicester) this morning. Temperature's risen quite a lot overnight ~ 10.1C at the moment.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Sun 29-Dec-13 23:21:23

Thanks Kitten

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 29-Dec-13 23:09:20

Biscuits will get back to you tomorrow smile

Geckos48 Sun 29-Dec-13 22:56:00

I live on a pretty big hill and my city is completely flood proofed.

I think we will be okay! Well if we aren't everyone is screwed!

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Sun 29-Dec-13 22:54:56

How's the snow/storms looking for North Yorkshire? I start my new job on 6th Jan and have to drive there (20 mins down the A1)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 29-Dec-13 22:52:24

You should be ok for snow for a while but floods may become an issue for you.

Geckos48 Sun 29-Dec-13 22:45:44

I am north wiltshire, so south west technically but about as Central South west as you can get!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 29-Dec-13 22:41:56

Gecko, if you are in the south or midlands I don't think you will have snow for at least 10 days. Northern hills, welsh hills or Scotland then maybe. I think there is a reasonable probability of a storm 6th/7th

Geckos48 Sun 29-Dec-13 22:36:30

Can I confirm though, you don't think there will be any snow for a few weeks but might be another big storm on the 6th/7th?

Geckos48 Sun 29-Dec-13 22:35:47

I visit very old people in their homes, if it snows I really struggle to get out to some folk.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 29-Dec-13 22:28:11

I prefer snow too smile it is generally more inconvenient than scary. Storms are more interesting though.

If its any consolation I've put away my power cut box til next Sunday.

PacificDingbat Sun 29-Dec-13 21:51:57

Thank you.

We've been to a local park today and playing football was impossible due to the pitch being about knee high mud grin.
Fun was had though and boys got exercised...

I'd rather have snow that storms, please (sorry, Geckos) - 'tis clean and lovely and not as scary as storms.
I may only feel this way as I can walk to work though blush

Geckos48 Sun 29-Dec-13 21:48:22

To be honest I prefer storms to snow. At least if it storms overnight I can still go to work in the morning.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 29-Dec-13 21:36:59

Well temps are going to be down from where they were. Single digits for most away from the south coast and colder for sure in Scotland. However we aren't likely in the next couple of weeks to see many of the sharp frosts. The picture is very much still wet and wild. Flooding becomes more and more of an issue, esp in the south west.

PacificDingbat Sun 29-Dec-13 21:29:16

DH keeps threatening offering to take the DSs skiing - in Scotland.
Glencoe with windchill -8 to -9.
Methinks not.

So, it looks like this cold is likely to continue for a bit?

GloriaSmud Sun 29-Dec-13 17:20:14

Gobby ~ I think we're due for cold too, I don't think winter's got started yet and it might end up being like earlier this year (where it started properly in January.) I hope though that if it does go that way, it doesn't last so long!

digerd ~ I have an unreliable archway too and I think the only reason why it doesn't fall over at the moment is because of the honeysuckle growing up it!

We've been to the allotment this afternoon (haven't been for 3 weeks) to check things are OK/weed suppressant fabric hasn't been blown away and there are some greenhouses there that haven't survived the storms. Think that's a clearing up job for the plot holders when the weather calms down.

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