Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

(955 Posts)
OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 14:10:38

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff wink

I'll update as things become clearer.

SnakeyMcBadass Wed 23-Oct-13 14:33:01

Gah. I hate strong winds. Freaks me right out. How far north might it go, do you think? I'm south Derbyshire.

SuperiorCat Wed 23-Oct-13 14:39:00

Thanks for the warning kitten, time to put away the garden furniture and secure the trampoline

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 15:02:33

Snakey, utterly impossible to know at the moment I'm afraid, the models are too divergent. As soon as they start to converge on a solution I'll update smile

SnakeyMcBadass Wed 23-Oct-13 15:47:34

Thanks Kitten/Witch <nails down trampoline in case>

HesterShaw Wed 23-Oct-13 15:51:43

Oh hurray a storm for half term. Yes I've been looking ar the possibly of 70mph gusts for Cornwall.

Bilpbip Wed 23-Oct-13 15:58:40

DS is going on the ferry to Ireland on Monday 28th... oh dear sad

leesmum Wed 23-Oct-13 16:54:45

Thanks for keeping everyone updated Kitten

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 17:09:53

dh is supposed to be flying out then. oh dear here too!
Still it is early days, so plenty may change yet!

LineRunner Wed 23-Oct-13 17:11:20

Bugger.

SpookyTeacakes Wed 23-Oct-13 18:09:41

Ooo marking my place for this. We've got a very dodgy fence which probably won't survive hmm

29chapel Wed 23-Oct-13 18:12:07

us too spooky and we are flying out on Monday... think DH will spend the w/e fixing the fence - he'll be delighted.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 19:33:03

Latest gfs takes the winds through France instead. There is about as much uncertainty as there possibly can be with this potential little nasty.

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 06:20:51

Will the winds be westerly, southerly or SW?

KenDoddsDadsDog Thu 24-Oct-13 06:23:35

Oh dear I'm flying back from holiday on Monday sad

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 06:27:38

Many trees in our area have been dropping their leaves for the last 2 weeks. I assume it was the very dry hot summer, or an omen of things coming early?
We normally have our Autumn Colour display after 29th October - or used to- and some years didn't fall until well into Novemberhmm

Marks place. We're on a hill facing the sea so feel the storms!

Carol on Breakfast has just mentioned the potential for Monday - she said it could be "gales, severe gales, or the potential to be something more than that"

Meglet Thu 24-Oct-13 07:07:44

This could be the death knell for a couple of my fence panels.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:38:00

3 main models look very different!!

GFS has a wind storm tracking over England giving severe gales across southern England.

UKMO has a fairly deep large low to the north of the UK giving generalised strong winds.

ECMWF gives a less deep solution, but I can't quite work out the track.

So it's all still in the air (so to speak)

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:40:07

Manky. Perfect summary.

One option though is instead of a discrete low forming a squall line develops giving brief severe gusts with erm the potential for more tornadoes.

Digerd, impossible to give the direction of the wind until we know the track of any storm that develops.

TheDoctrineOfAnyFucker Thu 24-Oct-13 07:40:34

<marks place>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:45:35

The Bracknell fax chart takes the storm winds through France.

NAVGEM takes a less strong storm to the north of the UK.

Aaargh!!

todaysdate Thu 24-Oct-13 07:48:21

Nooo
We are moving house on Monday!

capercaillie Thu 24-Oct-13 07:50:51

Watching with interest...we'll be in Wales

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