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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
289
MissConductUS · 15/08/2024 20:44

Reporting for duty. 😁

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:46

🫑

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 15/08/2024 21:15

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:46

🫑

I had no idea there was a salute emoji!

DrBlackbird · 15/08/2024 22:15

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:46

🫑

I always thought that was a half a smiley face with a floppy dog ear 🫣

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/08/2024 23:18

Thanks for new thread. Sorry we've got to 51.

MagicFox · 16/08/2024 07:31

@DrBlackbird haha that makes the least sense ever, I love it!

OP posts:
TheABC · 16/08/2024 08:53

Thank you for this thread.

FWIW, I think there will be movement when the fiscal pain gets too much for Russia and/or Putin dies. Given some of the astonishing things that have happened over the past 2 years, I remain optimistic that this could end as suddenly as it began. Russia is slowly killing itself along with Ukraine over a war that was supposed to take a week.

I also agree we are in a Cold War situation and the west needs to build its militarily forces back up.

heldinadream · 16/08/2024 09:02

Thanks for the sad landmark of the 51st thread.
@TheABC I agree with your potted assessment of things. Unfortunately Putin could live a good few more years, ten isn't unrealistic and the thought of another ten years of this and how it will leave the state of the world is horrific. Also Russia has form for propping up decrepit leaders well beyond their time, unlike the US Dems and how bravely they intervened with Biden (thank god).
I should name change I think to something like YesImagloomysod. 😬

TheABC · 16/08/2024 09:49

It's possible, @heldinadream, but most of those decrepit leaders were not involved in a hot war that has churned half a million Russians into the ground at a time of falling birth rates and failed to stop a Ukraine invasion of their land.

heldinadream · 16/08/2024 09:56

@TheABC that's true. Thanks for balance. I need it.

Mb76 · 16/08/2024 13:23

Thank you for the new thread πŸ’™πŸ’›

Igotjelly · 16/08/2024 13:28

Checking in. I'm finding the state of the World really hard at the moment. I go through phases of being committed to fighting the good fight then periods of crippling pessimism. Seems I'm in the latter at the moment.

WinterMorn · 16/08/2024 13:30

Igotjelly · 16/08/2024 13:28

Checking in. I'm finding the state of the World really hard at the moment. I go through phases of being committed to fighting the good fight then periods of crippling pessimism. Seems I'm in the latter at the moment.

Hang in there, the awesome Ukrainian people continue to astonish us and we have not idea what they could do next!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:04

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Zelensky confirms full capture of Russian town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/breaking-zelensky-confirms-full-capture-of-russian-town-of-sudzha-in-kursk-oblast/

⚑️Pokrovsk residents urged to evacuate as Russian forces are nearly 10 km from city's outskirts.
Pokrovsk is an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian forces that supports their operations in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/pokrovsk-residents-urged-to-evacuate/

⚑️ Myrnohrad residents evacuating as Russian forces reach 6 km from the town. https://kyivindependent.com/myrnohrad-residents/

⚑️Russian troops intensify activity near Krynky, Ukrainian forces withdraw to new positions, military says. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-intensify-activity-near-krynky-ukrainian-forces-withdraw-to-new-positions-military-says/

⚑️Russia partially deploying its forces to Kursk Oblast, exact number is unknown, White House says. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-partially-deploying-its-forces-to-kursk-oblast-exact-number-is-unknown-white-house-says/

⚑️Russia diverts multiple units of at least 1,000 troops each to Kursk Oblast, CNN says, citing sources https://kyivindependent.com/russia-partially-deploying-its-forces-to-kursk-oblast-exact-number-is-unknown-white-house-says/

⚑️Nordic, Baltic countries express concern https://kyivindependent.com/hungary-visa-rules-russia-concern-nordic-baltic/ to EU over Hungary's easing of entry rules for Russians.

The U.S. is reluctant to allow Ukraine to use its long-range weapons inside Kursk "not because of the risk of escalation, but because the US only has a limited supply," CNN reported on Aug. 16, citing multiple unnamed U.S. officials. https://kyivindependent.com/us-reluctant-atacms-kursk-limited-supply/

⚑️Russia claims Ukraine attempted ATACMS attack on Crimean Bridge. Russia downed 12 ATACMS launched overnight by Ukraine as part of an attack on the Crimean Bridge, Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti reported on Aug. 16, citing the Russian Defense Ministry. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-ukraine-used-atacms-to-attack-crimean-bridge/

Explosions rang out across multiple cities in occupied Crimea overnight on Aug. 16, the Crimean Wind telegram channel reported, citing resident reports. A fire was reported near the city of Kerch, in the area of the Kerch ferry crossing. https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-fire-reported-near-kerch-in-occupied-crimea-local-media-reports/

⚑️Ukraine strikes ferry crossing in occupied Crimea, boat in Krasnodar Krai, official says. https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-fire-reported-near-kerch-in-occupied-crimea-local-media-reports/

⚑️ Ukraine's Magura drones have reportedly struck 18 Russian ships throughout war. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-magura-naval-drones/

⚑️US-Ukraine discussions about long-range cruise missiles 'in advanced stages,' source says. https://kyivindependent.com/us-ukraine-discussions-about-long-range-cruise-missiles-in-advanced-stages-source-says/

⚑️Kursk Oblast residents evacuated to Russian-occupied Crimea, media says. https://kyivindependent.com/kursk-oblast-residents-evacuated-to-russian-occupied-crimea-media-says/ [They've moved evacuated residents to mostly occupied areas; presumably so that most Russians can remain remote still from any real direct impressions of the war]

French support for Ukraine in the clear, despite political deadlock at home https://kyivindependent.com/french-support-for-ukraine-in-the-clear-despite-political-deadlock-at-home/

⚑️Ottawa confirms Ukraine can use Canada-supplied arms on Russian territory. https://kyivindependent.com/ottawa-confirms-ukraine-can-use-canada-supplied-arms-in-russia/

⚑️Ukraine exports over 64 million tons of cargo through Black Sea corridor in a year. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-exports-over-64-million-tons-of-cargo-through-black-sea-corridor-in-a-year/

⚑️Zelensky submits package of bills to parliament to ratify Rome Statute of International Criminal Court https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-submits-package-of-bills-to-parliament-to-ratify-the-rome-statute-of-icc/

⚑️ Kazakhstan 'won't blindly follow' sanctions against Russia, deputy PM says.

Kazakhstan will review its approach to enforcing sanctions against Russia, prioritizing its own economic interests, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Serik Zhumangarin said in an interview with Bloomberg on Aug. 16. https://kyivindependent.com/kazakhstan-wont-blindly-follow-sanctions/

⚑️Russian dissident Kara-Murza returns to US, visits White House. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-dissident-kara-murza-returns-to-u-s/

⚑️Russian Tu-22M3 bomber crashes in Siberia's Irkutsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-tu-22m3-bomber-crashes-in-siberias-irkutsk-oblast/

⚑️Ukraine's legalization of medical cannabis enters into force. https://kyivindependent.com/medical-cannabis-enters-into-force/

⚑️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 7, injure 25 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-80/ over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson- AUG 16, 2024
β–  High engagements & 2nd highest casualties this month so far
β–  Massive equipment losses incl. 35 APVs, 5 MLRS & 16 special equipm.
β–  MLRS losses match this year's record
β–  Relatively few πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes; expect more tomorrow

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:10

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

John Kirby, the White House National Security Council's Coordinator for Strategic Communications, announced in an interview with MSNBC that the U.S. will provide new military aid packages to Ukraine in the coming days.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Crimea was targeted by multiple unmanned boats and aircraft-type drones during a night attack.

Politico: Biden Administration 'Open' to Sending Long-Range F-16 Missiles to Ukraine
According to Politico, the White House is considering supplying Ukraine with air-to-surface missiles for F-16 jets. This discussion comes as Russian ground operations in the Kursk region continue into their second week.

At least 219 Ukrainian civilians were killed and 1,018 were injured in July, marking the highest civilian casualty count since October 2022, according to a report from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Crimea was targeted by multiple unmanned boats and aircraft-type drones during a night attack.

Italian journalists have arrived in Sudzha, where the Armed Forces conducted a tour for them.

Budanov outlined the principles for negotiations on the release of prisoners: Ukraine will prioritize the return of the seriously ill, severely injured, and women. Special focus will also be given to those who have been held in captivity the longest.

🀺 Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan's saber was sold at a charity auction for 10 million hryvnias (approx. $230000). The proceeds will be used to purchase ShaBlya ("Saber" in Ukrainian) automated turrets for the Ukrainian army.

Former UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace stated that permission from Great Britain alone is not sufficient for Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory.
He explained that missile operations, including those involving Storm Shadow, often depend on a variety of external resources such as data, GPS, intelligence, and guidance systems. These resources may be shared among several countries, meaning that Ukraine cannot unilaterally use the missiles if other nations involved do not grant their consent. Wallace clarified that while one country might authorize the use, the cooperation of other countries is still necessary.

Russia to Push Anti-Ukrainian Politicians Ahead of US Elections, β€” Politico

Russia is expected to ramp up its online influence campaigns ahead of the upcoming US elections, according to a report by Meta. These efforts will likely focus on promoting Western politicians who oppose support for Ukraine.
... It includes amplifying the voices of politicians in countries like France and Canada, who argue that money being sent to Ukraine would be better spent domestically.
Ahead of the November US elections, where some Republican figures like J.D. Vance have questioned Washington's financial support for Ukraine, Meta believes Russian agents will leverage these internal debates for political gain. The campaigns are expected to emphasize topics such as the allocation of Western resources to Ukraine rather than focusing on any specific political party.
As Western tech companies, politicians, and civil society groups have become more adept at exposing these campaigns, Russian-linked groups have shifted tactics. Instead of creating controversial posts themselves, they now promote content created by local politicians and influencers. For example, during the Paris Olympics and far-right riots in the UK, Russian-affiliated accounts amplified voices that suggested Western democracy is failing.
Meta has shut down four underground Russian influence operations targeting social media users in Europe, the US, and countries like Azerbaijan and Mali. These campaigns primarily focused on criticizing Ukraine and questioning why the West continues to fund the war.
Additionally, with less than three months until the US election, Meta dismantled a domestic influence operation targeting "true conservatives" in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Though the origin of this campaign remains unclear, it borrowed heavily from known Russian tactics, including using AI-generated fake social media accounts to spread political disinformation. [at least Meta is facing this and acknowledging it, instead of being pro-Russia like Musk's Twitter and his anti-Ukraine algorithm changes]

SLB Expands Operations in Russia Despite Sanctions and Western Competitors' Exit
Houston-based SLB (formerly Schlumberger), the world's largest oil services company, is expanding its operations in Russia, even as its Western competitors withdrew following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to The Financial Times.
Most of SLB’s importsβ€”worth $13 millionβ€”came from China, with another $3 million from India. The company supplies equipment to major Russian oil companies, including Lukoil.
In 2023, the profit of SLB’s main Russian division rose by 527 million rubles to 27.3 billion rubles ($307 million), according to reports using Russian accounting standards.
Global Witness documents revealed that in December, SLB’s Russian business signed a contract with the All-Russian Research Geological Petroleum Institute (VNDGNI) to help develop oil and gas field models for future projects
Industry experts suggest that SLB's technology and expertise are crucial in helping Russian operators develop oil and gas projects with reduced costs and risks.

prettybird · 16/08/2024 14:11

I read these posts every day. Thank you @DucklingSwimmingInstructress for continuing to do the updates Flowers

And Flowers too to our Ukrainian posters with friends and family who are in the war zone Sad

And Flowers to everyone who helps us stay informed and to those who post or lurk who want to be informed.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:11

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️The Russian army approached Pokrovsk, Donetsk oblast, almost 10 km from the outskirts of the city. Residents were urged to leave the city.

Russian Z-channels write that Ukrainian military are attacking the positions of Russian Armed Forces in the border village of Zhuravlevka in the Belgorod oblast

On the eve of the Polish Armed Forces Day, President Andrzej Duda honored 14,000 Ukrainian People’s Republic soldiers who fought alongside Poland against the Soviet Red Army in 1920.

Ukrainian soldiers from the 3rd Assault Brigade saved a 900-year-old Polovtsian statue near the frontlines in Donetsk.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:14

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚑️Ukraine continues to freely gather Russia's most advanced military technology from Putin's defeated forces in the Kursk region. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37479

Belarusian military aid to Russia graduates from merely draining warehouses to draining active Belarusian military units, a new sense of urgency for Lukashenko.
https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/37503

Russia’s Raiffeisen Bank Stops Foreign Currency Transfers Abroad
Raiffeisen Bank was once a safe haven for foreign currency transactions abroad for Russian citizens, compared to other Western and Russian banks – now it’s not. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37453

⚑️72% of Ukrainian soldiers released from Russian captivity have returned to service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, β€” Interior Minister Klimenko.

⚑️The enterprising people at Ukraine's national postal system set to open a "mobile branch" in the Russian town of Sudzha.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37510

Russia’s Raiffeisen Bank Stops Foreign Currency Transfers Abroad

Raiffeisen Bank was once a safe haven for foreign currency transactions abroad for Russian citizens, compared to other Western and Russian banks – now it’s not.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/37453

WearyAuldWumman · 16/08/2024 14:25

TheABC · 16/08/2024 09:49

It's possible, @heldinadream, but most of those decrepit leaders were not involved in a hot war that has churned half a million Russians into the ground at a time of falling birth rates and failed to stop a Ukraine invasion of their land.

Yup.

I did Russian at uni 40+ yrs ago and had a placement in Krasnodar. Was shocked when I saw the Sky news report showing the size of the new cemetery there.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:25

That must have been really interesting, @WearyAuldWumman

WearyAuldWumman · 16/08/2024 14:40

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:25

That must have been really interesting, @WearyAuldWumman

It was an eye opener. It was during the Olympiad. I’m told that cities directly involved in the games had their shops full of produce. Krasnodar did not.

Our lecturers were lovely, but believed everything they saw on tv.

All the Brits caught giardiasis from the water - chlorine tablets don’t work, apparently, and we’d all gone swimming in the Kuban’.

Our lecturers told is we had upset stomachs because we were too used to processed food instead of good Soviet food… Did I mention the shortage of toilet paper…?

I also found that some Russians could be quite patronising about non-Russian Soviets.

I kid you not : we were followed by KGB. A British lecturer was arrested for taking a photograph, but released when he pulled out his camera roll. He’d photographed a poster: they claimed he’d snapped babushkas queuing for kvass: β€œanti-Soviet propaganda”.

There were around 70 British students there for a month - would normally have been only a few, but the summer schools in Minsk and Kiev (sic, at that time) were closed because tourists were using all the student accommodation.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:44

Followed by the KGB ... I gather all Westerners were very carefully observed.

All the same, an experience very well worth having I imagine.

Igotjelly · 16/08/2024 14:45

WearyAuldWumman · 16/08/2024 14:25

Yup.

I did Russian at uni 40+ yrs ago and had a placement in Krasnodar. Was shocked when I saw the Sky news report showing the size of the new cemetery there.

That must have been absolutely fascinating. I feel like that part of the World, and I include Russia in this, has so much to offer. Their history, culture, people, linguistic traditions etc. are just so unlike anything you find anywhere else. I know several people who have lived in Russia over the years or studied there and they struggle to separate the country many of them came to love with the Putin regime and what is happening now.

I went to a really interesting seminar recently with someone who was a British diplomat in Russia for years and then subsequently worked in Washington. He said without fail the Russian people were cold at first but that once you got to know them they were warm and hospitable and often became friends for life. It tallies with Steve Rosenberg who often talks about having close friendships with Russian people that he has met (including the lady from whom he used to buy his newspaper who then moved to Kursk).

WearyAuldWumman · 16/08/2024 14:48

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/08/2024 14:44

Followed by the KGB ... I gather all Westerners were very carefully observed.

All the same, an experience very well worth having I imagine.

I wasn’t aware of the same level of scrutiny in Moscow or Leningrad. I suspect that those in Krasnodar were trying to make a name for themselves.

blueshoes · 16/08/2024 14:48

Hello peeps. Copying over from the previous thread.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-15-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances.
  • Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area.
  • Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.
  • The Kremlin and the Russian military command are creating a complicated, overlapping, and so far, ineffective command and control (C2) structure for the Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.
  • The delayed establishment of a complicated Russian C2 structure in Kursk Oblast continues to highlight the fact that the Kremlin failed to plan for the possibility of a significant Ukrainian incursion into Russia.
  • The Kremlin appears to have a more coordinated approach to securing its control over the Russian information space than to addressing its military and C2 problems in Kursk Oblast.
  • The Kremlin is likely trying to hastily create a new information space that predominantly features coopted Russian milbloggers and established Russian state propagandists.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly using Western-provided equipment in Kursk Oblast but remain limited in their ability to strike Russian military targets within Russia with Western-provided weapons.
  • Ukraine is organizing the creation of a humanitarian corridor through which to evacuate Russian civilians who are impacted by the ongoing Kursk operation, filling an apparent vacuum left by the Kursk Oblast administration and fulfilling international legal requirements for the evacuation of civilian populations.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against Russian air bases in Russia on the night of August 13 to 14.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in the Pokrovsk and Toretsk directions.
The Russian government submitted a bill on August 15 to lower the admission age for the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) from 18 years of age to 14.
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