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OYBBk - Early winter predictions

118 replies

JerseySpud · 21/09/2014 13:05

What are they looking like this year?

I know its early yet but i like to know x

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Apatite1 · 22/09/2014 00:01

I'd love to know too. Am very sick of the warm weather now, I've had enough for this year!

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digerd · 22/09/2014 08:06

SE.
We had only 7 degrees this morning so that is more of a normal temp.
The problem has not been the high temp but the humidity and closeness of the air quality that makes it oppressive.

Saturday we even had a chilly breeze in the afternoon.
This morning on dog walk there was none.

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JerseySpud · 22/09/2014 08:12

Its cooler this morning but its going to get warmer during the day

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GloriaSmud · 22/09/2014 13:20

Was a chilly morning here ~ down to 3.7C at 5.22am.
Some long range forecasts that cover the next few months from weatheronline and netweather.

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GloriaSmud · 24/09/2014 09:35

Looking Europe way, the Icehotel in Sweden has had its first snow of the autumn/winter.

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JerseySpud · 24/09/2014 10:23

Is that good or bad? lol I have no idea if thats early or bad or late or good!

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GloriaSmud · 24/09/2014 16:41

Lol Jersey ~ I don't know whether it's good or bad either! Over on netweather though they have have threads for discussing Snow and Ice in the northern hemisphere and early winter hopes and chat. They discuss in detail any signs in the atmosphere/snow forecasts and the appearance/non appearance of the white stuff at this time of year. I enjoy reading it and then seeing if they're right when it comes to winter!

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digerd · 24/09/2014 20:17

6 degrees yesterday morning but 13 this morning. BUT sitting room felt really cold and temp was 18.5 indoors. Even in the afternoon sun it did not rise above 19 Confused.

My heating would have come on if I hadn't turned it off.
The NW wind definitely makes it feel colder out.

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Titsalinabumsquash · 24/09/2014 20:22

I hear we're having an October heat wave Hmm. I'll cry if we do. I want WINTER!

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/09/2014 09:03

The first half of October does look pretty warm in the south. I'm enjoying it, the longer I don't need the heating on the better and my veggies are still growing happily. Winter last year seemed to last forever so I am happy to postphone it.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/09/2014 09:04

I'll try and do a summary of various websites later :) I thought I'd already replied to this thread. Whoops!

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SpottyTeacakes · 27/09/2014 09:08

I'm interested too. We're getting new windows in October so mild is good!

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JerseySpud · 27/09/2014 13:10

I want proper autumn weather stamps foot

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atticusclaw · 30/09/2014 08:19

We are off on holiday at half term. We took the same trip four years ago and when we arrived back at the airport (third week in october) there was snow on the car. We seem a very long way from that, it was really warm here yesterday afternoon.

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BoreOfWhabylon · 30/09/2014 08:22
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GloriaSmud · 30/09/2014 11:45

According to mountain-forecast, first snow of the autumn/winter is forecast for Ben Nevis this weekend.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/09/2014 13:17

Ok,
looking at the met office 3 month contingency planning thingy here , they are going for a 35% chance of it being warmer than usual and a 10% chance of it being colder than usual.

they are saying that the first part will be more settled than usual and then becoming more unsettled than usual later on. I find this slightly bemusing, looking at the gfs two week forecast which has the first half of Oct pretty unsettled.

They are going for above average rainfall as being most likely, especially Nov December :(

El Nino doesnt seem to be established yet and so will not be influencing us.

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JerseySpud · 30/09/2014 19:53

Nooooooo :(

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atticusclaw · 01/10/2014 18:30

Oh. I wanted snow so that I can do my squirrel thing and buy masses of winter supplies.

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phonebox · 01/10/2014 18:36

I would put money on October being quite mild, with a sudden cold snap in November.

We don't seem to have gradual seasonal change much anymore!

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phonebox · 01/10/2014 18:37

And I can't wait to break out my winter coat and thick tights! I bet it will be Nov before I do (in the South)

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GloriaSmud · 13/10/2014 14:08

Latest thoughts on winter from theweatheroutlook.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/10/2014 09:28

In light of the Express going bonkers again yesterday (one day, by the law of averages they will quite possibly get it right as long as they stick to the same story every autumn!) I thought it would be a good time to revisit the met office contingency planning page here

To summarise them they say it is more likely to be an above average Nov-Jan than a below average period in terms of temperature. The predicted yet El Nino has yet to form and it looks to be a positive NAO for at least the first half. They give it a 25% chance of falling into the warmest category and a 15% chance of falling into the coldest.

In terms of rainfall the met office predict that it is more likely to be an average or above average winter than a below average winter. They also mention that spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than typical. They give it falling into the wettest category as 25% and driest as 15%

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/10/2014 09:37

I ought to point out that last winter didnt fall into the met office highest probability categories. IIRC correctly they were a drier and slightly colder than average winter. oops! Will be good when they get their super new super computer up and going!

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JingleSpud · 29/10/2014 17:50

Booo :(

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