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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 21:37

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
104
AugustBreeze · 13/08/2020 21:45

Thank you @BigChocFrenzy !

I wonder whether Greencore have evidence to back their claim that the outbreak is not a result of anything done at work but to do with what staff do outside of work?

I wonder also when they tested the majority (1,300 people). Apparently they're still waiting for 100 results back.

Timeforanotherusername · 13/08/2020 21:48

August I think it was local PHE that said that.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 13/08/2020 21:51

Thanks for new thread ...

Piggywaspushed · 13/08/2020 21:56

I read they are waiting for about 3 -400 more results!

And , yes it was PHE that said it was behaviours outside the factory ( a bit like Jenny harries use to try to tell people to control their teens so they could go to school: that went well on MN !).Whilst I imagined group hugs and giant parties or some such, I think the main thing is extended families and car sharing.

Piggywaspushed · 13/08/2020 21:58

Apparently, PHE were impressed by Greencore . They have gone above and beyond Covid secure requirements.

Although then I heard they had a load of visors which fogged up so everyone took them off until they replaced them.

MRex · 13/08/2020 22:02

Thanks for the new thread

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:21

@AugustBreeze

Thank you *@BigChocFrenzy* !

I wonder whether Greencore have evidence to back their claim that the outbreak is not a result of anything done at work but to do with what staff do outside of work?

I wonder also when they tested the majority (1,300 people). Apparently they're still waiting for 100 results back.

.... imo, a large cluster with a common location almost certainly means most of them caught it in that location

300 tested positive out of 1,300 employees and waiting for another 300-400 test results

It is good though that they carried out mass testing themselves

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:23

Infected employees spreading the virus to others will of course be partly due to behaviour outside work, but also their families passing it on before they knew

OP posts:
MRex · 13/08/2020 22:23

I'm struggling with the report on Spain's numbers due to having very little Spanish. It looked clear before with the separation between new and antibody cases, are they just mixed now or are their cases much higher today?
www.mscbs.gob.es/ca/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_184_COVID-19.pdf

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:25

I meant passing it to non-employees can be due to non-SD behaviour outside work - but could also be passed on by family members

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:29

The ECDC 14 day incidence has Spain now at 100 cases / 100,000 !
I'm also wondering what is included in official Spanish cases

In comparison:

UK 18.5
France 32
Germany 14.6
Belgium 59
Sweden 36
Netherlands 40

OP posts:
Pertella · 13/08/2020 22:31

We got here quickly!

Firefliess · 13/08/2020 22:38

I bloody well hope there has been transmission between workers in the Greencore factory. If there hasn't and they've just picked it up at random elsewhere in their lives that would suggest a quarter of Northampton are positive, which is pretty scary!

Idroppedthescrewinthetuna · 13/08/2020 22:44

Has the daily figures been updated as yesterday there were 1009 new cases too. I usually check worldometer and that is just blank.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:44

Mrex Translating your Spanish link via Google:

"For the purposes of notification to the CCAES, an outbreak is defined as any group of 3 or more cases with active infection in which an epidemiological link has been established.
Those that affect only the cohabitants of the same address are excluded.

Since "de-escalation" ending < since lockdown ended on 21 June ?? > to Thursday, August 13 at 2:00 p.m.
1,181 outbreaks have been reported with more than 13,200 cases, affecting practically all of the autonomous communities.

Of these, 837 are still active with more than 9,200 cases.

Within active outbreaks, the area in which a greater number of outbreaks and cases have been recorded is social,
representing 35.4% of active outbreaks (n = 296) and around 37.7% of cases (n = 3,488).

Among them, the outbreaks related to family gatherings and private parties (155 outbreaks and more than 1,100 cases)
and those linked to entertainment venues, with at least 58 outbreaks and more than 1,700 cases, stand out.

In second place, with 18.6% of the total, there are outbreaks with a mixed component (n = 156 and around 1,300 cases) where transmission moves,
for example, from the family environment to other areas

The third most frequent group of outbreaks are those that occur in the workplace (135 outbreaks, 15.1% of the total, and around 2,000 cases).

Among them, outbreaks related to workers in the fruit and vegetable sector in situations of social vulnerability are the most frequent, with 35 outbreaks identified and more than 850 cases.

Other outbreaks to be highlighted are those that occur in family outbreaks that affect different homes (7.2%),
social-health centers (7.8%),
health centers (3.4%)
and those that occur among other social groups vulnerable (4.7%).

In recent days there has been an increase in the number of outbreaks identified in social and health centers.

There are currently 65 active outbreaks in this area with more than 1000 cases.
Of these, 51% have fewer than 10 cases.

77.5% of outbreaks are small, with less than 10 cases.

The largest outbreaks, some with more than 100 cases, are occurring in leisure settings and among workers in vulnerable situations."

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:46

"On May 11, 2020, the new strategy for diagnosis, surveillance and control in the transition phase of the COVID-19 pandemic came into force,
whereby the autonomous communities must notify confirmed cases individually and daily at the level state.

Therefore, as of May 11, 2020, said information is used for the preparation of this daily report.
Once the data from both surveillance methods have been combined, a total of 337,334 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 28,605 deaths have been reported in Spain so far
(Table 1, Table 2, Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3).

The discrepancies that may appear with respect to the data of total cases previously reported are the result of their validation by the autonomous communities and the transition to the new surveillance strategy.

Table 1. Total confirmed COVID-19 cases, diagnosed the day before and diagnosed or with symptom onset date in the last 14 and 7 days as of 08.12.2020"

OP posts:
FATEdestiny · 13/08/2020 22:50

@BigChocFrenzy

The ECDC 14 day incidence has Spain now at 100 cases / 100,000 ! I'm also wondering what is included in official Spanish cases

In comparison:

UK 18.5
France 32
Germany 14.6
Belgium 59
Sweden 36
Netherlands 40

And the tourists are flocking there!
Firefliess · 13/08/2020 22:52

@idroppedthescrew No it's not been updated today. There's a note at the top of the webpage says technical difficulties so a delay.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/08/2020 22:52

If you are on holiday abroad, or planning a holiday....

New countries added to UK quarantine list from Saturday 4am:

France, Netherlands, Monaco, Malta, Turks & Caicos and Aruba

OP posts:
boys3 · 13/08/2020 22:53

@Idroppedthescrewinthetuna

Has the daily figures been updated as yesterday there were 1009 new cases too. I usually check worldometer and that is just blank.
@Idroppedthescrewinthetuna - no cases numbers reported today due to undisclosed technical difficulties

again Hmm

Idroppedthescrewinthetuna · 13/08/2020 22:57

I have just seen.
Thank you for replying though.

MRex · 13/08/2020 22:59

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy, still as clear as mud to me in English then, ha! So we don't know if they're still including antibody tests or not and it's all gone totally tits up. Is this their strategy for keeping tourism open, keeping up the guesswork?

Quarantino · 13/08/2020 23:04

300 cases in the Northampton factory is huge, isn't it? Any idea what that might mean in terms of case numbers for the local area?

MRex · 13/08/2020 23:08

Even with a lockdown, it'll be a lot. Families. Friends.

Bb14 · 13/08/2020 23:13

Thank you for all the wonderful input on this thread. Does anyone know if test that are privately carried out (such as in the recent Greencore outbreak) will be added to the number of positive tests total that is reported daily? Or are these just privately organised NHS tests. Thanks.

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