Monday 12th September looks possibly jolly nasty weather wise for Scotland

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

One of the models (GFS) shows a very nasty low (I think its ex-hurricane Katia) for Monday for Scotland. Now Monday is a long way off and it may well not happen but the potential is there, so well worth keeping an eye on the met office warnings page as we get closer.

That doesn't sound good.
(Thought the weather forecast for the weekend wasn't that great either. Autumn really has hit hard and very quickly this year!)

It does look nasty, they have Katia tracking up that way this weekend, and looking at it they are forecasting her still to be stormforce when she hits Ireland.

here

Just had a look on the model charts - seriously chaps, if you are in Soctland and NI please keep an eye on the warnings. it does look very nasty particularly around the central belt.

Lots of warnings out in general for this. Worth keeping bumped through the weekend.

Thanks for news link manky :)

oh, not soctland - Scotland!

aha - warnings upgraded to amber precisely where the GFS model shows the tightest contours.

Thank you. I had been planning a wee camping trip with ds sat/sun night, I feel I may not bother!

eep! well reconsidered!

I never follow weather forecasts, but I do read MN a lot so have had lucky escape!

Here is the BBC report about this "Britain braced for severe gales on Sunday".

<a class="break-all" href="http://www.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=www.ouramazingplanet.com/images/stories/hurricane-katia-110902-02.jpg&imgrefurl=www.ouramazingplanet.com/hurricane-katia-satellite-image-1962/&h=450&w=600&sz=37&tbnid=12BO1_Jj5meMsM:&tbnh=101&tbnw=135&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dhurricane%2Bkatia%2Bpicture%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=hurricane+katia+picture&docid=aRyFWh88_DUOTM&hl=en&sa=X&ei=IppqTp7NKJSx8QO5xJEu&ved=0CDAQ9QEwAg" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Here's a picture of Katia from space.

Back in autumn 1987, there was a hurricane followed by a stock market crash. I wonder what next week might hold.....

noaa show Katia become extra tropical later today - so it is still a tropical storm!

scrap that - at the moment it is still a Cat 1 Hurricane! It wont be when it hits our shores, but no wonder it looks so exciting on the model charts.

Im near the Dundee area, how badly will it affect us do you think? Trying to decide wether to stop DH riding his motorbike to work that day (he travels to the next town).

I think you are living in quite a prone area - gusting 60mph+ unless the track changes significantly.

The western side of Scotland and also NI may see gusts in excess of 70mph I think.

How leafy are the trees up there atm? (down here ours are still in full leaf)

Most are pretty much still leafy, they just started shedding a couple of days ago. Thats not as good as bare trees is it?

Its not. Do take care on Monday.

NOAA update
still looking very nasty for some.

I've just been looking at the Met office site - it looks as if the worst affected parts are likely to be north of a diagonal line from about Aberystwyth to the Humber. With the worst in NW England and SW Scotland.

And despite the BBC link I posted earlier - Monday/Tuesday seems to be the likeliest worst times that a fair assessment?

I would say that is pretty fair - the track of the storm seems a little further north and I think a little slower than first predicted so perhaps a little further north than the line youve drawn but the timing youve stated is pretty spot on.

What do you think 'Be Prepared' actually means?

I'll take some plant pots off a high wall tomorrow, but what else should I be doing? I've got to go out on Monday. Absolutely got to.

If you have a trampoline make sure it is tethered to the ground or weight the legs down (flying trampolines are a bit of a weather cliche). Ditto with wheelie bins. For those in areas prone to power loss then it would be the old power cut kit. (we are so we have our camping stove, torches, lantern ,little radio in an accessible place just in case)

Also keep an eye on any forecasts in case the met office upgrade the warnings and know the frequency of your local radio station.

if you have to go out with no choice and the weather is proper bad then think about your route carefully - are there likely to be fallen trees for instance, will any bridges be closed, that sort of thing.

oh btw, I'm not suggesting that people down here (or much of the uk for that matter) need a power supply kit for this event, in case thats how it comes across - its just that we always have it.

No trampoline but we do get power cuts so that's a bummer when that happens.

I wish my DH would take it seriously! He's suggesting I'm preparing for a monsoon when we're just due a bit of an autumn bluster.