Grade predictions

[dingit]

Dd has hers for the start of the year, and I understand this can go up or down as she goes through the year. Does anyone have an experience they could share? What I'm looking for is if the grades have been exceeded in exam results.
The sixth form college we ideally would like is asking for 6 A s. At the moment she has one definite A and four more predicted and a distinction for ICT.

[TeenAndTween]

No idea.
Personally I think a number of DD1's predictions are too high.

6As! The 6th form colleges round here require 5 A*-C (with some specific subject grades, and some advising that courses wouldn't be suitable with lower grades)

[dingit]

That's for the super selective grammar! Dd likes to aim high
I hope they haven't hiked her grades up, although she did have a snigger at an A for French.
The bog standard college just needs 5 A-C, of which she's half way there as she has 2.5 GCSEs although one is PE short course.

[dingit]

That was meant to read 6a*s

[noblegiraffe]

Predicted grades at this point of the year are a ballpark figure, the kids haven't even sat mocks yet. I've just done a bunch for my Y11 and have been quite conservative. I fully expect some of the kids to pull their fingers out and beat the predictions I've made.

[dingit]

Thanks Noble. So if her academy have been conservative, she should hope to achieve those. She already has an A* for double science, so I need to find out if that will count.
My gut feeling still wants her to go to the ordinary college just down the road. The jump to A levels, and being with the elite may just be too daunting for her.

[swingofthings]

I've just received my Y10DD initial target grades and they are lower than I expected. They say these are based on progress at school but also national progress data? Is the latter purely primary school results or do they take any other data into account? How do they work these out?

DD has said that they don't mean much and that she will be working out her own targets with her individual teachers, who according to her are predicting As in all subjects. This would be in line with what her teachers have said since she started Y7, hence the surprise with a few Bs in subjects she seemed to get top marks in last year ( for instance level 7a in science at end of year 9 but predicted a B at GCSE so far).

Is it right that these are only a guide and not truly representative of what they are likely to achieve?

[AtiaoftheJulii]

My dd2's target grades (predicted by Fisher Family Trust methods) were a pile of shite, to be frank. She only started school in y9, so god knows what sketchy information they were basing it all on. She found it rather disheartening to have lower-than-she-was-aiming-for target grades on the front of all her books, and gradually most teachers did change them for her! And most of her teachers also put realistic targets in her reports. I would go with what your daughter said about working them out with her teachers :)

[Nosy67]

6As? Bloody Hell. Around here you need CCCBB as a general rule, although often higher in specific subjects. This 6th form sends a handful of kids up to Oxbridge every yr.

I wonder what you get in a 6th form that demands 6As. Do like 30% of their leavers go to Oxbridge, and almost all the rest to redbrick?

[Nosy67]

ps: no idea what targets DS-yr10 is supposed to be aiming for. I do envy parents with some clue.

[dingit]

I've just checked nosy. 4% Oxbridge, 54% Russell group. They state that you have to have A* in the A levels you want to study, but word on the street says in reality to get in you need 6.

[dingit]

Oh, and dd had a report this term listing her predicted grades. Apparently these are reviewed every half term.

[Nosy67]

hmmmm, I wonder what the 42% end up doing?
4% at our local FEC would mean 32 instead of 5 going to Oxbridge each yr.

[dingit]

6% medicine, 4% art, 7% gap year ( rich mummy's and daddy's) the rest other universities.
There's no getting round it, she's going to have to work her socks off to get there. Oh, well something to aim for.

[swingofthings]

Thanks AtiaoftheJulii. DD did her first science test a couple of weeks ago and got an A*, so feeling more confident that those supposed predicted grades are indeed not worth paying much attention to.