Bird Flu - should we be worried?

[Earlybird]

Most governments generally don't seem to deal with things until after they are a problem, so it's a little unsettling to see America being proactive about this:

Bush to push for mass-produced birdflu vaccine

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

President George W. Bush will urge manufacturers to come up with ways to mass produce vaccines for the avian flu virus, the White House said on Thursday.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of birds and infected more than 100 people, killing at least 60 in four Asian nations since late 2003.

Bush and other leaders fear a pandemic of the virus. He and his top advisers were to hold a meeting on Thursday about ways to combat avian flu.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Bush would meet on Friday with the heads of major manufacturing companies and urge them to expand the capacity to mass produce a vaccine.

He said they have expressed concerns about liability issues.

The virus has already caused losses of $10 billion to $15 billion to the global poultry industry, with the heaviest losses in Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia
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The BBC has been running stories about this daily, with yesterday's being an article about how the flu epidemic of 1918 was most probably a mutated avian virus.

\link{http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4308872.stm}

Is this another example of media scare mongering like Y2k, or is it something we should be worried about? Can we, as individuals do anything to protect ourselves?

[Earlybird]

And I still can't do links!

[Pruni]

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[expatinscotland]

I started a thread on this this morning. World-class scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Infection in Atlanta, Georgia, USA have managed to replicate the virus behind the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, which killed 50m, in hopes of better understanding H5N1. They had a hunch about that that flu had something in common w/the H5N1, which is proving just as lethal.

Unfortunately, their research held some rather frightening results.

The 1918 flu did NOT ever have to merge w/a human strain of flu before being able to be transmitted from person to person. In other words, people somehow became able to pass an avian flu to one another w/o it ever having combined w/a human strain of influenze. This proved very deadly to them, needless to say.

So it IS entirely possible that H5N1 can also, somehow - no one is sure how - become able to spread from person to person w/o ever having merged w/a human strain of flu.

The team are now working frantically to try to understand how the virus mutated so that it could be passed from person to person w/o having managed to combine w/a human strain of influenza first - in a desperate bid to understand H5N1 and, hopefully, develop a vaccine.

[Earlybird]

Missed your thread this morning expat. That's scary information, but I don't know what we, as individuals, can do other than sit around and hope the worst doesn't happen.

On a personal note, dd and I have just had our first minor episode of sore throats and runny noses. I'd love to take steps to avoid a long winter of feeling crap at regular intervals. Does anyone get flu shots, and do you find them to be worthwhile?

[expatinscotland]

I get them. Going to have one next week, in fact. I pay for them privately. My last episode of geniune influenze left me with double pneumonia and weak for months. I work w/the public and use public transport at rush hour.

People say, 'Oh well, it just makes you ill for a week'. Bollocks! It makes you utterly miserable for a fortnight or longer.

[Pruni]

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[Pruni]

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[expatinscotland]

Have a look at the BBC link, Pruni. The CDCs finding were published in an issue of 'Nature' and 'Science' magazines.

Here is the link again:

1918 Influenza

My grandmother's first child, a two year old girl, and first husband, a fit, healthy 21-year-old, died of Spanish flu in the winter of 1919.

[expatinscotland]

What can be done about it is anyone's guess, though, b/c no one really knows how THIS particular virus will go. Will it become one that can jump from person to person w/o having to combine w/a human strain of influenza, or go the way of the 1918 pandemic? And if so, what exactly can be done about it? The scientists seem to think mass vaccination is the way forward, but how to develop a vaccine for a virus that may not even exist yet?

So your DH has a point.

The Chinese have been giving anti-viral drugs licensed for use in humans to their poultry. What effect might this have on a future strain of H5N1?

There are a lot of variables out there right now.

Scientists are trying their best, and most are working together in this, but the future can go in many directions.

[Pruni]

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[FrightfullyPoshFloss]

The only thing I know about it is that one of the consultants on my unit is in an expert body of people about it all. Slightly worrying that there needs to be a group, but good cause we in theory should get to know the best treatment etc quicker. I'll pass anything on (but not the flu hopefully!)

[scaryman]

probably

[Whizzz]

no

[LadyCodofCodford]

[peck peck

[Flum]

Since most of us are birds, yeah probably.

But really I have enough to worry about what with, world poverty and stuff

[FrightfullyPoshFloss]

Whoops, actually I'm getting it muddled with SARS.

[Pruni]

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[Flum]

anyway I never get ill. I am worried because I will be dashing around serving up bedside manners to everyone I know who will no doubt be struck down.

what a drag.

might start my own plague village and not let anyone in. especially birds

[LadyCodofCodford]

since most of us are birds.. lol

[Pruni]

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[expatinscotland]

Well quite right, Pruni! There's not a whole lot we can do about a strain of virus that may or may not exist yet and may or may not come to exist, except keep funding and supporting further research into the matter at hand and hope enough can be learned to develop a vaccine.

Yes, there was a swine flu about then as well.

My gran said the 1918 strain caused quick pneumonia. This is what killed people so fast. She had it herself but she survived.

[Pruni]

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[LG]

has anyone considered buying tamiflu (the anti-viral drug) from the internet??

[expatinscotland]

No, LG. For one, there's concern over counterfeit Tamiflu. Also, there's a possibility that whatever strain becomes adapted for human to human transmission - IF this even comes to pass - may or may not have some resistance to anti-virals currently on the market, especially given that the Chinese have been giving their poultry anti-virals licensed for use in humans. Finally, what if this strain of bird flu is able to jump species w/o genetically recombining w/a human strain of flu, like the 1918 one? Will the anti-virals we have available to us even be able to curtail its lifecyle?

There are so many variables and it's early days yet.