If the vote is very very close...

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

And we stay in is it likely that another referendum will be offered to voters as a way to gain more
votes as the Tories did in the last election. Obviously not in the next general election but maybe in 10 years time ?

The SNP do not rule out another referendum so would the Tories or Labour ?

[AuldYow]

I'd hope not, surely it's a straight in/out which ever gets the most votes wins?!? I may well be being naive but I'd be mightily pissed off it we had to do it all again.

[unexpsoc]

Unfortunately, the psychology would suggest that if the status quo wins, then the agitators will keep pushing. If the agitators win, then the status quo-ers will be forced to accept it. It's the way our minds work - that change is action but not changing is not making the decision.

So the leavers will just keep pushing until they get their own way, which they will believe will happen eventually.

[ClashCityRocker]

I think if it's close either way we'll be staying in.

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

I don't think that will happen.

I want to leave, is we stay in I would like another referendum at some point so will probably start voting UKIP to enable that. If UKIP are the main party, that's the only way I could see another referendum.

Or possibly until all the other eu countries start having their own referendums and decide on leaving, then we might panic.

[EnthusiasmDisturbed]

I have noticed the this is once in a generation vote seems to not have been used as much in the last week

I think it is going to be very close and more people will turn out that what was being predicted than just two weeks ago

[dogchewedtoy1]

Oh I hope not. I hope the country can put this behind us and look forward, whatever the outcome. However, I think that if Remain win by a small majority, I think UKIP will find a resurgence in support and the Tories will lose lots of voters who feel disenfranchised (eg. people who voted for them because of Cameron's election manifesto pledge to "reduce immigration to the 10,000s"...which is clearly (another) pledge broken). The question is, can the Labour party capitalise on the fallout from this - will they turn on the unelectable Jeremy and try and install a "Leader" not a "Protester" (to sort of quote Tony Blair!) and go for the 2020 (or earlier?) election.

[unexpsoc]

"I want to leave, is we stay in I would like another referendum at some point" - which highlights my point I think

[ClashCityRocker]

The referendum isn't legally binding though, is it?

Possibly political suicide, but I can see them making an argument that low voter turnout or it being so close means we should stay in.

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

David Cameron keeps reiterating which ever way the vote goes, by however a small margin, thrn that's that and will be acted upon.

[ThroughThickAndThin01]

unexpsoc yes I agree that leavers probably won't pipe down, but I don't think they'll get another referendum chance through the main political parties as the opening post suggests. I only think it will be through the rise of UKIP.

[shitchef]

If we vote to Remain then I think Brexiters have to accept the decision. If however something then quickly changes in the EU e.g. Turkey accession speeds up/our financial contribution rockets in the next few months, people would have a perfect right to say that the Remain leaders absolutely lied to them and therefore another referendum in due course is only fair.

(And if DC ignored a Brexit win I'd be knocking on his door and demanding he personally pays back that fucking £9 million leaflet money)

[unexpsoc]

"(And if DC ignored a Brexit win I'd be knocking on his door and demanding he personally pays back that fucking £9 million leaflet money)"

And so you bloody should too!

In terms of your other point, the EU will always have changes. That is it's nature (I don't believe Turkey will ever join btw). But it can't be an every two years "Oh, they have changed the font of the EU letterhead I want another referendum" charge. There would have to be big fundamental change before another referendum.

[ClashCityRocker]

I'm not wholly convinced that DC chappie is entirely trustworthy...

It's interesting though - there seems to be a fear that the uk will be 'punished' for having a referendum (although I can't see how personally)

I do think it will take a big change to get another referendum though.

[BritBrit]

Even if the vote is not very close UKIP would still offer a 2nd vote they are not just going to stop & they would also have good grounds for complaint e.g. David Cameron spending £9 million on taxpayer funded pro EU leaflets, not letting Brexit ministers see government documents etc. The Tories would be in an extremely difficult position because half their MP's have been exposed as supporting the EU & UKIP would be likely to start winning some of their less safe seats

[unexpsoc]

britbrit - does that suggest that if the outcome doesn't go the way you wish you will immediately suggest that the result is flawed and should be re-run?

[Overrunwithlego]

britbrit I don't see why the leave campaign should have access to government documents. The government's position is to remain. MPs have not been whipped to support that position, but that is the government's position. The leave campaign have no more right to see government docs than I do, I don't think.

[Spinflight]

The doomsday scenario here is a narrow win for remain.

The reason is simple and the polls back this up.

Those who want to leave the EU are a committed bunch. Indeed the pollsters have to reduce their weighting because the vast majority say they are certain to vote.

Hence if this once in a double generation event goes against them they will only have one resort and that is voting UKIP in 2020.

Cameron was very foolish in trying to rig things in his favour. £9 million of taxpayers money on leaflets, denying access to the civil service such that proper economic forecasts could be made and accepting huge sums from rich bankers with vested interests like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs was not bright in my opinion.

Ukip now has an MP, and therefore a whip too. This is important as it means that MPs can defect, there was a chap who tried to before an MP had been elected and was told that he couldn't.

Quite how many disenfranchised MPs from all parties would actually do this is a matter for speculation however the dodgy antics of the government won't have helped.

It wouldn't take many of the 100+ eurosceptics to cross the floor for Cameron to lose his majority and they would spend the next 4 years campaigning for UKIP in 2020.

How many of the 45%+ of the electorate would vote UKIP in 2020 as the only way to extract us from the EU?

Well the only reasonable answer is a lot more than voted for them last year. Add in the dodgy expenses that the tories submitted mainly in seats where they were trying to beat UKIP and re-runs of these elections could see even more UKIP MPs.


Oddly enough the best possible result for Nigel Farage is to lose the referendum....