Conservative/UKIP Coalition & EU Referendum – HOW?

[Isitmebut]

I seriously believe that I have heard more political mistruths in this General Election than any other – and one of the latest is Labour ‘scaremongering’ about a right wing coalition including UKIP, WHICH IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE, based on several reasons – the main one being the UKIP vote itself.

• UKIP take 2-3 Conservative votes to 1 Labour vote in contested marginal seats.
  

• UKIP currently polling 12% to 15%, inflicted huge electoral damage on the Conservatives in 2010, with just 3% on the General Election votes, with post election analysis showing that around 26,000 UKIP votes across around 20 odd key marginals, made the difference between a Conservative government and a Coalition, each fighting their own political corner.
  

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html

• Conservatives due to voter numbers within English electoral boundaries, need to be around several percent ahead of the opinion polls in 2015 to potentially win the same amount of seats as Labour, as evidenced by the 2005 and 2010 General Election results;
  

In 2005 Labour with 35% of the popular vote had a 66 seat MAJORITY government, 2010 Conservatives with 36% of the vote had a 20 seat MINORITY government.

So even if Labour loses 53 Westminster parliamentary seats in Scotland (where the Conservative ‘panda’ has one seat), Labour is still likely to be the LARGEST PARTY and form the next 2015 government thanks to the SNP.

And this is where Labour disingenuously tells everyone the Conservatives are SNP ‘scaremongering'; but what do the current FACTS show, using the Poll of Polls Sky News took the current opinion polls and turned them into Westminster seats.

Conservatives;.277 seats
Labour;...........277 seats
SNP:................53 seats
Lib Dems;..........18 seats
UKIP..................2 seats
Other;..............18 seats (including Plaid Cymru and Greens)

So as Westminster has around 650 M.P.’s and a functional UK government would therefore need around 325 MP’s , can anyone spot the Miliband mistruth and misdirection in pretending that a Conservative and UKIP party (with or without the Lib Dems) could form a majority government and put through any legislation?

Especially when the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens have said that they will not support a Conservative government NO MATTER WHAT they propose?

Even if the Conservatives were self serving tossers like the Labour Party in Westminster and Holyrood for years and OPPOSED EVERYTHING; every one of Miliband’s 1970’s style failed socialilisim/big state policies, shared in ‘values’ by the SNP and Plaid Cymru nationalist vote, WOULD GET THROUGH and reverse the economic/investment/jobs/deficit reduction recovery.

[HirplesWithHaggis]

That's good news, thanks for sharing.

[Isitmebut]

Regarding an EU Referendum; this can only happen IF the Conservatives have a parliamentary majority and a UKIP who in 2010 had 920,000 (3.1%) of the votes - but failed to get ONE Westminster seat - will ensure that will not happen, especially as currently polling at 12% across the country, but only likely to get 2 seats in 2015.

No chance of an EU Referendum there then, but even if there was, surely if the ‘IN’ argument is so strong, our majority wish to stay in come what may, the vote would mean we remained in?

But at least we would have democratically arrived at that decision rather than deprived of a vote by an undemocratic 2015 Westminster administration headed by Labour as the largest Westminster party in terms of seats - but potentially voted in by fewer UK voters than the Conservatives - thanks to those dodgy English electoral boundary lines.

Looking at Labour's 2015 manifesto under 'democracy', we will have so much NEW local 'choice' at great taxpayer expense, but no choice if we drift into a honking great inefficient and expensive EU superstate, for a bureaucratic 'double whammy'. Marvellous.

[throckenholt]

um - to me all those figures suggest we need proportional representation. But that is something the conservatives are adamantly against. With first past the post system they still think they can get majorities. With PR, they know they can't.

If we genuinely have multi party politics, then the only fair way is some form of PR. Whichever party you prefer, you couldn't argue any other party was unfairly represented.

Going by current polls - PR would give something like
con 225
lab 220
UKIP 80
LD 50
green 30
snp 30
others 15

[Isitmebut]

Herpeswithhaggis... clearly no one in Scotland has ever worked out that it Labour flying the 'progressive socialism' flag in 1979 and 2010 that failed, and needed the Conservatives to sort it out.

Unless you think whether looking at 1979 and 1997, or 2010 versus 2015, that the Conservatives handed back a worse economic situation than they inherited. Tah dah.

If the Labour, SNP, and Plaid Cymru 'progressive dream ticket' crashes the economy YET AGAIN, you can bet your bippy that whether the IMF insists it or not, the FIRST thing that the English will INSIST gets 'sorted' is the Barnett Formula - especially as Ms Sturgeon so strongly feels the need to offer back to English regions the £1,600 per 'ead advantage, every Scottish national has over their English paying counterpart.

[Isitmebut]

Throckenholt .... are those figures with similar numbers of citizens in each constituency, we don't have now?

What am I saying, whether we wanted it or not, the 'kin election is in a few weeks, so irrelevant.

However, in the spirit of openness to suggestions, it looks as if we will have a end May 2015 working (or not) opportunity to SEE if a multi party system is better, especially if 5 or 6 of them can be labeled as 'left of centre' - yet still squabble amongst each other, like rats in a trap.

Remember from the 2010 coalition negotiations, Mr Balls having learned from his 'the clunking fist' master, doesn't play well with others. lol

That would be funny to watch, if it wasn't going to be so 'back to square one' expensive to this generation and the next.

[HirplesWithHaggis]

That's a singularly unpleasant miss-spelling of my name, did you mean to be so rude?

I see you're in the habit of delivering monologues, so will leave you to it.

[Isitmebut]

HirplesWith Haggis .... Oh dear, my whirly gig went all 'predictive', please excuse me.

As to 'monologues', no doubt you have one of your own blaming 'the nasty' party for needing to find tough solutions to fix this nations problems, rather than ever blaming the numpties who screwed up - but as the 'screwers' have spent so much time and effort over the past 35-years regurgitating that propaganda, you will not be alone.

Maybe ONE DAY, many decades from now, the Conservatives get back from a socialist party a functioning economy, so they can skip the 'nasty' unpopular bit, and concentrate on the benefits to all of a functioning economy, paying its own way. God willing.

[CaptainAnkles]

I do hope it is almost impossible, it's the most depressing outcome imaginable.

[Isitmebut]

Aye Captain.... 'we're doomed, doomed, I'll tell ye'. lol

[Tanith]

I have heard much more scaremongering about Labour and the SNP forming a possible alliance. I see John Major has got in on the act this morning and you, isitmebut, have been happy to speculate at length.

A bit hypocritical of you to talk about political mistruths, don't you think?

[tilder]

What's with the bold, capitals and underlining?

Yawn. Bit of a rant Tbo. Selective use of newspaper articles can be used to support any argument.

[Isitmebut]

Tannith .... please correct me if I'm wrong on the following;

Labour have OPPOSED virtually every policy of the coalition in 5-years, many of which have turned the economy around that most countries (and their appreciative populations) in Europe can only dream of.

The SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens have stated numerous times that they would NEVER support a MINORITY Conservative Party no matter what policies they have, never mind their total opposition to getting the UK's current £1,500,000,000,000 (£1.5 trillion) debt under control.

So look above, DO THE MATH, what is the biggest May 2015 danger to our democracy and continued strength in our economy, the Conservative - UKIP government, of any permutation of a Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru loose or solid coalition in Westminster - out voting anything other than a Conservative Party able to form a majority?

So I'd strongly argue the hypocrisy is Mr Miliband's and yours; I as the boring Capricorn I am, just look at the FACTS.

[Isitmebut]

tilder .... re your "What's with the bold, capitals and underlining?"

Well look at the post above after I supplied the math. Duh

So in answering your question, in trying to get some of the facts versus dodgy statements/policies across, short of using a wet ukipper around the back of the head to get those across, using the boards facilities to highlight those facts is the best I've got to inform.

BTW do you have an opinion of the facts, or was that the best you had to discredit my OP?

[cdtaylornats]

I suspect that we are about to import that great tradition of American politics - the pork barrel

[Isitmebut]

cdtaylornats ... I would argue that if we had an American 2-party system, we wouldn't be having this current political chimps tea party type bun fight.

I have followed generally U.S. markets/politics for decades and knowingly had never come across that 'pork barrel' term, which I looked up and saw;

"The metaphor stems from the practice in the pre-refrigeration era of preserving pork in large wooden barrels of brine. The political usage may have been inspired by the distribution of rations of salt pork to slaves on plantations. "Oftenitmes the eagerness of the slaves would result in a rush upon the pork barrel, "wrote a 'journalist' named C.C. Maxey in 1919, "in which each would strive to grab as much as possible for himself. Member of Congress in the stampede to get their local appropriation items into the omnibus river and harbor bills behaved so much like negro slaves rushing the pork barrel, that these bills were facetiously styled 'pork-barrel' bills."


But personally as a little Englander, I liked the following quote;

"Rawson closes with the wonderful quote from a Senate chaplain in the early 20th century. Asked whether he prayed for the senators, the man of the cloth responded, "No, I look at the senators and pray for the country."

[Tanith]

No, you don't look at the FACTS: you post your opinion. You need to learn to tell the difference.

It is a FACT that the Conservatives have recently formed a Coalition wih another party. It is your OPINION that I am a hypocrite.

I have more factual evidence for the former than you have for the latter.

[tilder]

I think I was questioning the use of politically neutral media outlets of sky news and the telegraph to strengthen your right wing views. Also wondering if the capitals etc were entirely necessary.

FWIW ukip represent, to me, the biggest threat to the democratic values of fairness and equality that I so value in this country.

The left wing of the greens, plaid cymru and snp would not be for me. There is no money and, lovely though the end of austerity will be, borrowing at the rate they would need to deliver their promises, is similarly not for me.

So I am left with the 3 usual offenders. None of which appeal in their entirety.

[tilder]

Probably should have added something to reinforce the sarcasm in that first paragraph. Politically neutral my arse.

[Isitmebut]

Tanith .... so if looking at the seat figures provided by Sky News yesterday and I said my opinion is that I agree with Mr Miliband's warning that a Conservative/UKIP majority will force through an EU Referendum and we'll leave the EU (before we even had a vote) - would you have been happier with that?

Of course I have an opinion, the problem seems to be with you and tidler, is that I back them up with FACTS rather than fall for political spin. My bad?

[Isitmebut]

Excuse me, tilder, thats my old eyes not my whirly gig.

On that subject I see tilder was of the assumption that I pretend I'm political neutral; lets just say I'm as political neutral as everyone else on Mumsnet.

Still no input on the subject though, huh?

[Isitmebut]

tilder ... excuse me again, I didn't see tour post above, I apologise for accusing you of not having anything to say.

Best I go and have a cut of tea.

[Viviennemary]

A conservative/UKIP pact just isn't going to happen. UKIP won't get enough seats. SNP/Labour coalition is on the way unless there is massive change in the opinion polls. Not sure about whether I think this will be a good thing or not. My opinion keeps changing. It certainly won't suit a lot of people. Namely the South of England. Maybe SNP should make railroads into the North of England. That would cause an even worse panic in the ranks.

[morethanpotatoprints]

I lost you on your first post tbh Even if The tories were self serving tossers, They are