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Headline: Half of transgender prisoners could be sex offenders

(18 Posts)
FruitCider Tue 21-Nov-17 20:11:32

Sorry for the DM link...

So you don’t have to click on the link:

“Half of transgender prisoners could be sex offenders with predator inmates 'falsely' defining their gender in a bid to get access to vulnerable women, a charity has warned.

Under new government proposals adults will soon be able to choose their sex legally, without the need for a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria.

Experts are concerned this will lead to a spike in the number of trans inmates transferring to female prisons, which could put others in a danger.

The British Psychological Society has also warned that some men convicted of sex crimes have 'falsely claimed' to be trans in an effort to 'seek better access to females and young children through presenting in a female way', reports the Sunday Times.

Between a third and a half (41 per cent) of all England and Wales trans prisoners are sex offenders, according to charity Fair Play for Women.

Recent high profile cases include Davina Ayrton who was jailed for eight years in 2016 for raping a 15-year-old girl, while she was known as David.”

Im really glad this has been highlighted finally. In reality I’m not sure what can be done about it sad

wheresmymojo Tue 21-Nov-17 20:15:39

I don't suppose you've checked the facts back to the source?

I'm not saying it's not true but I don't tend to trust the Daily Fail...

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Tue 21-Nov-17 20:19:15

Original source (which typically the DM didn't cite)

FruitCider Tue 21-Nov-17 20:19:55

I’ve not googled every single MTT prisoner and looked at their offending history, however this is the BPS statement on the matter is telling. I did read it yesterday but I cannot find the link now!

DoopityDo Tue 21-Nov-17 20:21:55

The stats, if they've taken them from the Sunday Times article, are from Fair Play For Women, who seem to have submitted a truckload of Freedom of Information requests to get them. FPFW said on Twitter that their report was written by a statistician, and they welcome people to come and check their figures.

pisacake Fri 24-Nov-17 01:09:42

The Independent have posted a completely fake rebuttal to this (written by a transwoman with a stupid name).

Basically they claim that several sex offender prisons are not (even though this is well-documented fact easily verifiable with Google), and that the MoJ statistics show only 70 trans prisoners in E&W, even though these figures explicitly exclude people with GRC and those who haven't had a case conference.

Apparently when it comes to advancing the transgender agenda #factsdontmatter.

TitaniasCloset Fri 24-Nov-17 03:26:01

This is so important. I'm gaining respect for the Daily Mail. I know we love to trash them on Mumsnet, but they are not afraid to post these stats and have this conversation. Yes, this situation makes for strange bedfellows, but let's not be difficult about this. This report will reach a lot of people and they aren't wrong.

Labradoodliedoodoo Fri 24-Nov-17 03:37:06


pisacake Fri 24-Nov-17 03:43:24

Here's yer typical 'female' sex offender.

Now given 10-years for rape.

With 99% of sex offenders male, and more and more sex offenders becoming transgender, could we ever be in the situation where most 'female' sex crimes are committed by males?

misscockerspaniel Sat 25-Nov-17 09:21:34

We should all lobby the Womens and Equalities Committee, Theresa May, MPs and newspapers etc on the issue of men being placed in women's prisons by writing/emailing them, giving examples and sources. Do what the TRAs do: Flood them with letters and emails.

(The Government is due to provide updated statistics on transgender prisoners this month. See answer to parliamentary question )

misscockerspaniel Sat 25-Nov-17 09:31:34

Sorry, that should be

EnthusiasmIsDisturbed Sat 25-Nov-17 10:06:25

I find it odd that the trans movement are so ready to accept any man that suddenly appears to have feelings that he isn’t a man but really a women especially when it comes to sexual predators

They are manipulative and of course they want access to women’s prisons becuase they know they will be safer and more importantly they will have the power to harm women even if they do not attack women their presence is enough

But what does it matter as long as males can do what they feel is right for them

DoopityDo Sat 25-Nov-17 17:00:24

In case it’s helpful for anyone here, I’ve done a breakdown (based on 2016 stats, from ONS population data and government prison statistics) on expected levels of transwomen prisoners compared to what we know so far:

Population of England and Wales: 58,381,300, so approx 29190650 males and females each.

Adult population (over 18s): approx 78.6% of that so 22,943,851 each of males and females.

78,968 males in prison (note that if you have a GRC you will be included in the stats of your acquired gender but it is probably not significant for this part given numbers involved) so % of adult males in prison: 0.344% To 3sf.

Females in prison 3795 so % of adult females in prison: 0.0165% To 3sf.

If there is a 0.2% prevalence of transgender people in the UK that’s about 116,763 people. Given the higher proportion of biological males who are trans-identified, we’ll assume 80% of these individuals are transwomen, which is a population of 93,410.

If transwomen have a female pattern of offending, we would expect there to be:

93410 x 0.000165 = 15.4 transwomen prisoners (let’s just round up to 16 in case we’ve underestimated the population a bit)

If transwomen have a male pattern of offending, we would expect:

93410 x 0.00344 = 321 transwomen prisoners.

So obviously, even with a 0.2% prevalence of trans people in general, the recorded number of transwomen prisoners is seven times higher than we’d expect from people with female-pattern criminal behaviour.

The expected number given Male-pattern offending is higher than the number we have from FPFW, but it was a minimum based on 73% of stats so...can’t draw any firm conclusions without more data.

However, the last time anyone studied this topic in the UK they came up with a 0.1% prevalence of transgender individuals, in which case:

Female pattern of offending means we’d expect 8 transwomen prisoners.

Male pattern offending means we’d expect about 161 transwomen prisoners.

Again, the absolute minimum number of transwomen prisoners is 113, (and I’m not sure if that’s 2016 or 2017 but we’ll take it for now) because the Fair Play For Women report assumed that any references to a transgender prisoner meant they were the only one, and references to transgender prisoners referred to 2 or possibly 3 prisoners, and we’ve seen that at least one prison has 11 trans-identified prisoners.

And there was only data for 73% of prisons so assuming similar prevalence the minimum number across the whole of England and Wales is:

113/73 x 100 = 155 transwomen prisoners

But hey ho, not enough data on actual prevalence of transgender prisoners (transwomen in this specific example) to draw a firm conclusion.

We can, however, conclude that transwomen definitely do not display female-typical patterns of criminality.

But it would be really helpful if someone in government could actually count the real number.

Because until we know how much of an underestimate Fair Play for Women’s tally is, we can’t draw any conclusions as to whether transwomen criminality is at lower rates than male-typical criminality, or whether, as other studies in Sweden and California have concluded, it is at parity or above compared to other biological males.

pisacake Sat 25-Nov-17 17:22:34

I don't think trans crime figures are that useful because the stats aren't good enough. The exception may be murder where things are much better documented because it's so rare & serious. There we know there are far more trans killers than trans victims.

misscockerspaniel Sat 25-Nov-17 18:32:32

The Ministry of Justice and the National Offender Management Service are due to publish the NOMS Annual Offender Equalities Report for 2016-2017 on 30 November 2017 at 9:30am.

This report should be helpful however, David Davies MP, in answer to a parliamentary question, was told last month that the number of MtF and FtM prisoners serving their sentences in prisons of their chosen gender, was unknown as the information was not held centrally and could only be obtained at disproportionate cost.

He was also told that for March to April 2016, there were 70 transgender prisoners (0.8% of the prison population) - but that this figure excluded those in possession of a full GRC.

misscockerspaniel Sat 25-Nov-17 18:36:20

To clarify my post, the figures are for England and Wales.

DoopityDo Sat 25-Nov-17 19:07:26

FPFW found 13 transwomen serving their sentences in the female estate, which I assume requires a GRC, and 100 in the male estate.

So I wonder how the MoJ has managed to lose 30 transgender prisoners without GRCs? Seems a bit careless of them. Maybe they've all been released in the interim period? Or possibly they have GRCs but are still in the male estate for some reason?

pisacake Sat 25-Nov-17 19:14:32

they only include those for whom there has been a 'case management conference'.

so basically their numbers are BS

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