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Someone's just pointed something out re: the Fawcett Society Factsheet

(20 Posts)
DontCallMeFrothyDragon Fri 30-Sep-11 17:07:17

From the Fawcett Society Factsheet;

"^• A recent study in the UK found 8% of cases reported to the police were designated ‘false’ reports. However, internal police rules specify that only cases where either there is a strong and credible admission by the complainants, or where there are strong evidential grounds, should be classified as ‘false’. Further investigation of this figure of 8% found that only 3% of cases designated false fell within the police categories of ‘probable’ and ‘possible’ false allegations (as opposed to additionally those classed as ‘uncertain’). (Kelly, Lovett, and Regan, 2005).^"

Now a discussion on rape has lead to this being discussed after someone claimed "lots of rape claims are false"... hmm that old chestnut again... Keeping in line with my duty, I set about putting him right, and quoted the Fawcett Factsheet. However, the 3% of rape claims being false had stuck in my mind. However, someone who is disputing the stats has also pointed out that:
If the quote is accurate, then the percentage of claims which are false is 0.24% (3% of 8%).

Can someone clarify this, please? Are we misreading the Fawcett Society Factsheet, and thus saying the false claims rate is 3% - 8% (depends on who posts) we're actually misrepresenting the number of false rape claims in a way which damages our claims?

Also, could someone pretty please explain how they work out the number of rapes which go unreported please? Because I've just been asked, and I'm kinda confused. Working through the Stern Review (slowly), so may get to it before someone explains, but I've never read the explanaition and I do feel this is an important question to address.

Any help in clarifying would be much appreciated!

TIA

NormaStanleyFletcher Fri 30-Sep-11 17:52:09

I read it as 3% of 8%, so that is 0.0024 which is 0.24%

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Fri 30-Sep-11 17:55:13

That's how I read it on reflection after he pointed it out, too. Wondering if anyone else is in the know, and can explain? Please? grin

AyeBelieveInTheHumanityOfMen Fri 30-Sep-11 18:29:57

That's how it reads and it would not surprise me one bit.

AyeBelieveInTheHumanityOfMen Fri 30-Sep-11 18:32:00

Oh, and unreported rapes come from the British Crime Survey, iirc.

It is estimated (I just read this in The Equality Illusion) that 40% of rape victims tell no-one,

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Fri 30-Sep-11 18:38:37

Hmm, but how do they come to these estimates? That's what the person in question is asking, and I'm really stuck on how to answer that.

Funnily enough, I'm reading The Equality Illusion right now. grin I love Banyard's way of writing.

AyeBelieveInTheHumanityOfMen Fri 30-Sep-11 18:44:07

British Crime Survey Methodology

"Over 51,000 people aged 16 and over are interviewed every year. 47,000 people are interviewed in the main survey. Additional interviews are also conducted with 16 to 24-year-olds. In January 2009 we extended the survey to include 4,000 interviews with children aged 10 to15 each year. ............

Around 1,000 interviews are carried out in each police force area. The overall response rate is currently 75 per cent – one of the highest for the large continuous government surveys."

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Fri 30-Sep-11 18:55:51

Aha, thank you, AyeBelieve. smile

SardineQueen Fri 30-Sep-11 20:31:45

A quarter of a percent for those cases where the complainant either admitted they were lying or strong evidence showed that they were lying seems reasonable.

However that will miss some who are lying but it's not proven. While the full 8% includes some that the police have decided are lying with no evidence so they may not be.

In which case it's fair to say that somewhere between 0.25% and 8% is the true figure. With 0.25% "definites".

SardineQueen Fri 30-Sep-11 20:33:04

I think false reporting for other crimes is 3-5% or something and false rape claims are similar to other crimes.

The whole "but women lie" thing is so enraging. Good luck with your argument/conversation smile

celadon Fri 30-Sep-11 23:41:24

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Missingfriendsandsad Fri 30-Sep-11 23:58:51

Are these proper rapes? <ducks and shoves Ken forward> smile

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Sat 01-Oct-11 00:07:42

Exactly, Celadon. Hence why the feminist perspective is to beieve the victim.

I did have a friend work it out the other day... He's not online at the moment, and the convo is saved to my other laptop, so I'll have a look later and let you know what we worked it out to be. The further the case progresses through the legal system, the greater the chance of a conviction, with (I think) 55% (ish) of rape cases in court last year resulting in a conviction of rape or sexual assault. The 6% stated earlier describes those that result in a rape conviction, and IIRC, a further 6% will see a conviction for sexual assault. I did read somewhere that the rape conviction rate is higher this year, but I can't remember how much higher or where I read it... blush

The graph at the bottom of this page explains it better than I can

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Sat 01-Oct-11 00:08:27

Proper rapes? hmm

Can we please not start that again?

JosephineB Sat 01-Oct-11 00:28:26

It's badly expressed but it's 3% not 3% of 8%. I know the author.

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Sat 01-Oct-11 00:33:59

Thank you for clarifying, JosephineB. Was causing some confusion amongst us.

JosephineB Sat 01-Oct-11 00:42:57

You're welcome! And to add - you're right re the conviction rate: getting it out of the police station and into the hands of the CPS is where the blockage is. Once the case goes to court, the odds are in the victim's favour for a conviction (albeit not always for rape).

The 6% conviction rate is a difficult one - on the one hand it assumes that every reported rape is true (not - IMO - a huge issue but it is an issue) and that a conviction is possible (reporting a rape which occurred ten years ago still conts in the low conviction rate even though a conviction is highly unlikely) but to only cite cases that progress to a charge means that poor police practice gets missed which is a signifiacnt contributor to the low conviction rate.

garlicslutty Sat 01-Oct-11 01:13:56

OK, so using Stern's figures only:

26% of reported rapes end up with a suspect being charged.
12% result in a conviction (46% of those charged).
Half of the convictions are for rape, the rest are for related offences.

So the CPS is doing its job, but the police and/or complainants drop 74% of all complaints before anyone is charged.
That must be higher than 'most' crimes, does anyone know?

It would be interesting to know how the proportion of unreported rapes compares to other crimes, too. I must confess I've let muggings and car accidents go unreported as well.

ThePosieParker Wed 05-Oct-11 12:15:30

I was spouting these figures the other day on a rape thread, it almost mean conviction rates are much much lower.

DontCallMeFrothyDragon Wed 05-Oct-11 18:31:22

this is unfortunately true, TPP. sad For every battle we step closer to winning, there's another where the victory slips a little further away.

This is what "not believing women" does to our judicial system

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