Thunderstorm watch summer 2019

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Seems a bit silly having multiple threads going when it might be quite a lively summer. It looks lively again this week anyhow.

We have met office thunderstorm warnings for the next three days.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-23

Tomorrow storm potential looks to be areas away from the SE, including northern England and the Midlands, but I'm also keeping an eye on the SE for tomorrow night. By mid week the storm potential really grows though and by Wednesday we could have some really cracking storms.

Thunderstorms are notoriously difficult to forecast. Not only whether they will happen, but where they will happen. I'll see if I can find the link to the excellent met office tweet about that earlier this week.

It's all being driven by very hot air being drawn up from Africa, through mainland Europe, which could see temps close to 40C. We could see temperatures touching 30C by Thursday. It's going to be humid and uncomfortable I'm afraid.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Here we go.
mobile.twitter.com/metoffice/status/1022847193311596545?lang=en-gb

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It seems that the met office are going for much hotter temperatures than I've stated with 34C by Tuesday. Eep.

A full week away, but during Glastonbury, GFS is predicting extraordinary levels of CAPE (convective available potential energy) which in a very simplified way basically says how much available fuel there is for thunderstorms. It may well change.

[LittleSwede]

Oh dear, it looks a bit ominous, doesn't it. The forecast keeps changing (weather channel) from predicting 30s to now showing mid 20s for Herts next week. I will keep an eye on this thread as you are usually a step ahead kitten.

I do quite like watching lightening from the safety of our house but it's the impact I am worried about with many areas already suffering from flooding after last weeks downpours.

The Swedish media is reporting on the extreme heat and saying it will hit cities like Munich and Zurich with temps of 40 or above. They also mentioned that Britain will experience a Saharan Summer with very high temperatures. Haven't seen any covergage on UK TV channels but maybe they will soon. Or I might have missed it!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think there is some uncertainty about next weeks temperatures. If major storms break out in France (likely) then we could end up under a layer of cloud suppressing temperatures.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Interesting about the Swedish Media reports. The last met office contingency planners forecast suggested warmer, wetter than average conditions over the next 3 months were more likely than the converse.

[LittleSwede]

Although I don't want to wish the storms on the French; clouds suppressing the temperature would be favourable.

I'm hoping the Swedish media is proven wrong about this Saharan Summer, don't fancy a heatwave which last.

[TokyoSushi]

Thanks as always OYBBK!

[BlackeyedGruesome]

It's them or us... I vote them.

[LittleSwede]

Rather hot and humid in Herts this morning. Forecast suggesting clouds but the sun has been out at intervals making gardening a sweaty business!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

lol! If we are doing voting, I vote us! Just one big giant massive lightning storm. (but keep it all in the sky)

[BlackeyedGruesome]

What the heck????

Drove home oppressively humid, cut the air with a stick weather. Listen to the last 10 minutes of GQT... Cooler fresher windier.

What happened?

[BlackeyedGruesome]

I don't mind the storms if they come at the right time, I just need cloud and low UV for the autistic boy who will not wear sunspray

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The warm weather does look to be mostly confined to the east/SE, but I'm not sure about cooler, windier weather!!

[Smelborp]

Whenever I see weather warnings that look interesting, I always come to the MN weather page. @OhYouBadBadKitten you always explain things so well and make it much clearer. Thank you. ❤️

[AnthonyCrowley]

I love a good storm. Am in the midlands and it feels like something is building up from a pressure/humidity point. Not raining yet.

[colouringinpro]

thanks oybbk I love your weather threads!

[BlackeyedGruesome]

There are already storms today. I hope any we have are not at school run time.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You're very welcome :)

Current storms are in northern England www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en

I also came across this very cool link this morning showing areas of weather issues for aviation: www.aviationweather.gov/

Today risks are primarily for northern England before the focus returns to central southern areas this this evening.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The met office updated their warnings yesterday to warn of potential flash flooding through isolated thunderstorms. Remember thunderstorms are hit or miss affairs.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-06-24&id=747b8a63-0bcf-45b7-a2f2-ca667f339f58

Estofex are warning of a low possibility of large hail and tornadoes tonight www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019062506_201906240302_2_stormforecast.xml due to possible imported storms from Normandy.

[LittleSwede]

Thanks for the update ohyoubadbadkitten! I thought I heard a thunderclap last night at 2 am but it was probably something else. A hot and sticky night though.

Tornadoes! Hopefully that won't happen!

[BlackeyedGruesome]

there were a few overnight lightening strikes showing up on the map this morning. I sometimes have it set for 24 hours to see what has happened.

It is all quiet here at the moment in the w mids.

[Annasgirl]

So weird that I just saw this thread as I sit here in Dublin watching the most horrendous thunderstorm. And I've just come back from a run in the park - another 10 minutes and I would have been caught in it!!

[myidentitymycrisis]

@Annasgirl Yes! Was on the phone with a friend last night in Co Wicklow and could hear the rain pounding then. They said they were predicting a heat wave in Ireland

[Annasgirl]

Yes I sent poor DS to school in shorts as it was hot this morning!!!

[SherlockHolmes]

@myidentitymycrisis yes I've heard temperatures might reach 17 degrees