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risk of freezing rain tomorrow. (sat 14th)

(132 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 11:49:25

I just wanted to highlight the potential still exists for freezing rain for those in northern england and Scotland tomorrow afternoon and evening. No real details and probability is fairly low BUT it is such a serious weather event when it does happen, that I feel flagging it is a wise thing.

Those who got freezing rain in March in southern England will remember how just a cm or so of freezing rain caused some very dangerous driving issues and brought branches down. Remember freezing rain is not hail - it falls as water and freezes on contact with surfaces instantly.

Tomorrow's event if it happens could be very nasty, with high winds and lots of precipitation forecast. If it were to fall as freezing rain then I would expect travel disruption and the potential for power supply interruption.

Don't cancel plans based on this post but please do just keep an eye on things. If the temperature is below 0 and it is raining, then it's a worry.

GloriaSmud Fri 14-Dec-18 12:25:02

From the metoffices 'Further details' that go with tomorrow's weather warnings ~ Freezing rain is expected to develop during Saturday, lasting into the early hours of Sunday. This may result in the formation of ice on roads, pavements, trees and other structures. Freezing rain is rare in the United Kingdom, but when it does occur impacts can be severe. This is due to the fact that it can form very quickly, it can be difficult to see, and is incredibly slippery.

Thought it was worth highlighting these bits as freezing rain is horrible stuff.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 12:30:09

well spotted Gloria.

paap1975 Fri 14-Dec-18 12:38:10

Freezing rain is the stuff of the devil. I refuse to leave the house!

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 12:44:31

that isn't an overreaction for anywhere without really good gritting.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 12:57:38

www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-14
amber warnings out for snow and ice.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 12:59:44

As you can see, now warnings for widespread freezing rain tomorrow,

now that the met office are issuing amber warnings, I'd reconsider travel plans tomorrow.

Perihelion Fri 14-Dec-18 13:00:54

I'm supposed to be driving Sunday morning. Think I'll leave my car on the main road nearby, as it's a bus route and should be gritted. However Edinburgh council has been quite random with their fitting this winter. The other week it was clearly going to be sub zero overnight and nothing was gritted and black ice was all over the place.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 13:01:07

Further details from the met office including the wording Gloria has c/p.

CarpeVitam Fri 14-Dec-18 13:01:44

Saturday 15th 😉

But thank you for the heads up! 🙂

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 13:01:52

Notice the warnings matrix - it's very likely and close to a red warning. If it becomes more certain then a red warning may be issued.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 13:02:13

bugger re the date!

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 13:03:02

The problem is with gritting - if any of it falls as rain first, then of course the grit is washed away.

GloriaSmud Fri 14-Dec-18 14:23:50

I think it can be said tomorrow could be an, 'evolving situation' and things could change and become more/less dangerous quite quickly.

(In the meantime, I've persuaded DH that he really doesn't need to take DDs into Leicester tomorrow afternoon/evening to see the Christmas lights and that it'll wait until Sunday/next weekend, when hopefully it's a bit warmer!)

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 15:56:17

I think that's sensible.
While it may not happen, if it does, it's going to catch a lot of people out.

brizzledrizzle Fri 14-Dec-18 18:32:42

I guess most people don't know what freezing rain really is and so underestimate the potential impact. I had to google it.

ChristmaspArti Fri 14-Dec-18 18:35:30

What do you think Manchester will be like tomorrow afternoon/evening?

Namelesswonder Fri 14-Dec-18 18:42:37

Arrrg, I’m in Edinburgh with a big night out tomorrow.

TheBlessedCheesemaker Fri 14-Dec-18 19:17:19

When we had freezing rain here in Kent, there were IIRC 8 separate crashes on the M2 in the space of 5 minutes. It was carnage and I had never seen anything like it - it was as if the surface of everything had been shrink-wrapped with thick ice in the blink of an eye. If you’ve never experienced it before, beware. It is horrific stuff.

cptartapp Fri 14-Dec-18 19:27:16

I'm NW. Will probably stay in bed! It's bitter here tonight.

brizzledrizzle Fri 14-Dec-18 19:29:56

I just went out to get some wine and crisps milk and fruit and it's bitterly cold and the car is already frozen so came back in, no way am I venturing out tonight.

beenrumbled Fri 14-Dec-18 19:32:18

Not holding my breath for my corner of Manchester. Our snow shield is fully operational. But DS1 is a match official at Oldham tomorrow and I think they might call it off, they usualy get hit hard.

picklemebaubles Fri 14-Dec-18 19:53:18

What about travelling by train? DM is due tomorrow.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 19:57:28

If it happens train travel will be disrupted, in March rail networks had to close down.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 19:59:02

I think manchester might stay on the warm side of ok, but please please keep an eye on things.

mogloveseggs Fri 14-Dec-18 19:59:02

Ugh! I have to work tomorrow. Typical. Thanks for the heads up!

spacechimp Fri 14-Dec-18 20:02:28

It looks as though the Amber area doesn’t reach as far down as Birmingham, even though West Midlands is given as one of the affected areas. Due to be out tomorrow morning 9 til 12 and trying to work out whether I need to change my plans

GloriaSmud Fri 14-Dec-18 20:04:16

picklemebaubles ~ this might help tomorrow.

GloriaSmud Fri 14-Dec-18 20:08:38

spacechimp ~ Birmingham probably won't get snow but it could get freezing rain later on, towards the afternoon. The morning should be OK but I probably wouldn't hang about!

spacechimp Fri 14-Dec-18 20:13:27

Thanks @Gloria - freezing rain is what I’m most concerned about. Would be home by 12 so hoping that I’ll be able to get stuff done and then stay out for the rest of the day

Iloveautumnleaves Fri 14-Dec-18 20:13:39

I need to keep a close eye on Gatwick & London, and to a lesser extent Reading.

I hope everyone up North stays safe.

bourbonbiccy Fri 14-Dec-18 20:49:18

My DH relayed this weather forecast to me this evening and both of us were pretty clueless as to what it actually is.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 20:53:47

Is it more clear now bourbon? Nice link: www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/precipitation/rain/freezing-rain

picklemebaubles Fri 14-Dec-18 20:55:54

Thank you!

BabySharkDooDooDooDoo Fri 14-Dec-18 20:59:26

Im in clackmannanshire and the pavements are white with quite a thick frost already

GloriaSmud Fri 14-Dec-18 21:10:14

Netweather has quite a good blog entry here all about freezing rain.

MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig Fri 14-Dec-18 21:13:11

I’m taking dd and five of her friends 30 miles up to Norwich on Sunday for a birthday party. Please don’t let it freeze-rain here!

Intheprimeoflime Fri 14-Dec-18 21:19:25

It's my best friend's wedding day tomorrow!

Intheprimeoflime Fri 14-Dec-18 21:20:13

And we are in the very north, very hilly part of England bless us all

flatmouse Fri 14-Dec-18 21:24:19

Fetching ds from uni tomorrow. Central heading south coast then back to central. Hope to be back by 4pm. Fingers crossed.

BouleBaker Fri 14-Dec-18 21:30:04

Thanks for the warning. We’re too far South but I remember the only time I have seen freezing rain and it’s reslly scary to be out and about in. My drive is a slope, I got to the front of the car then literally had to hold on to the side as I slowly slid along my drive all the way from bonnet to boot. It was as if all grip had just dissspeared. And no, I didn’t dtive anywhere!

bourbonbiccy Fri 14-Dec-18 22:12:50

Yes, thanks for the thread. It does seem quite daunting to be out and about with my toddler DS, if it is as horrible as people describe. Hopefully it will miss us

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 22:29:59

I think as long as people know what to watch for and just be alert, that's the main thing. It's rotten timing being a saturday so close to Christmas.

PoisonousSmurf Fri 14-Dec-18 22:31:14

They said it could reach as far south as Gloucester shock

PoisonousSmurf Fri 14-Dec-18 22:32:45

Freezing rain is terrible. Had it back in the mid 90s in South Wales. It was supposed to snow that night but it rained. Thick ice on every surface. I was SO GLAD not to have to go into work that Saturday morning!

zebrarobot Fri 14-Dec-18 22:33:14

Today is the14th.

TokyoSushi Fri 14-Dec-18 22:36:27

BBC weather forecast just now does look really bad for tomorrow now, @OhYouBadBadKitten and @GloriaSmud you do such a fantastic job, thank you!

GinandGingerBeer Fri 14-Dec-18 22:44:20

I remember how bad it was when we had it up north about 7 or so years ago. I couldn't get the kids to school, we all fell over, cars were skidding everywhere. 3 people from work ended up with bad sprains or breaks as they stepped out the door unaware, you can't actually see it, its horrendous . I'm out tomorrow night and wish I wasn't!

brizzledrizzle Fri 14-Dec-18 22:49:48

That forecast does look awful. I've got family driving down here from North Yorkshire on Sunday so I hope it's ok.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 14-Dec-18 23:08:30

smile Tokyo.

Sunday will be warming up, but it might take a bit of time to thaw.

tablelegs Fri 14-Dec-18 23:15:35

I'm out tomorrow but it's in the morning so I'm hoping it will be ok.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:05:37

The met office still say that freezing rain is likely.

Ticcinalong Sat 15-Dec-18 08:09:11

We have heavy winds and some rain here in the NW at present it’s 1 but feels colder. Trying to decide if to drive to Staffordshire for family do at lunch time.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:11:06

In fact, I've already seen a report of freezing rain in Powys over higher ground.

I'm trying to pin down more helpful timings and locations for people about , but I'm afraid I don't have the expertise.

MacarenaFerreiro Sat 15-Dec-18 08:13:04

We have snow here already in Glasgow. I have no idea how slippery the roads are but I'm not taking the car out to experiment. I hate the snow and winter so much.

Hopefully the brighter, milder weather tomorrow will melt it all away.

Ticcinalong Sat 15-Dec-18 08:14:59

Please don’t feel pressured OYBBK it must be an impossible job! Your (and Gloria’s) weather threads are the best weather reports and give us all useful information, so thank you.

Elfinablender Sat 15-Dec-18 08:24:50

Does the severity of the weather warning give an indication of how likely it is to happen or just the severity of the event if it does?

Elfinablender Sat 15-Dec-18 08:26:54

Also, if I am of the border of the amber warning does that mean it is less likely to happen here?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:29:27

People can use the radar here if you turn 'weather type' on then it will show any freezing rain in purple.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:32:01

Very good question Elfina smile If you compare the met office matrixes for the amber and yellow regions you can see that this time the answer to your question looks to be both.

Elfinablender Sat 15-Dec-18 08:35:55

Ah, brilliant, I think we might have rearrange some plans. Thank you OYBBK

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Dec-18 08:36:53

Elfinablender ~ If you look on the metoffice warnings page here and scroll down the written information bit about each warning area, it has a 'further details' section, click on that and you'll see it includes a 'warning impact matrix.' The matrix gives an idea of the impact and how likely it is to happen, if you're in the warning area.

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Dec-18 08:37:39

Or what OYBBK said!
fgrin

Elfinablender Sat 15-Dec-18 08:45:49

Thanks Gloria grin

MynameisJune Sat 15-Dec-18 08:45:57

Thanks for the warning! Looks all quiet here in North Lincs at the minute so I guess it might be with us later on.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:47:53

fgrin Gloria, that's very funny!!

MsJaneAusten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:51:28

I’m struggling to understand it all. I’m supposed to be travelling from Penrith to Leeds today and thought we’d be ok, then worried, then thought it would’ve ok. I’ve cancelled now. That’s the right call then?

Is it supposed to be any better tomorrow?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:55:48

I guess it's worth remembering that even in the warning areas its probable that not all will see the freezing rain.

Keep an eye on the met office warnings page for updates www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15

Also the link I gave to radar above.

If you are in an amber area. I'd just mentally go over where your power cut stuff is, charge phones and the like. With strong winds to gales expected, any ice sheathed power cables could struggle.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 08:58:27

Tomorrow any ice or snow may linger but at least you'll know what you are dealing with then and the gritters will have had chance. Dont rely on them today, any rain that falls as normal rain first will wash away the grit.

cortex10 Sat 15-Dec-18 08:59:45

I have only experienced freezing rain once about 20 years ago.It was horrendous - really scary - the car tyres had no grip whatsoever and cars were sliding and crashing everywhere. No idea how we avoided an accident. DH and I heard it on the forecast this morning and straightaway we both said ' remember 20 years ago...' I definitely won't venture out if the rain does freeze.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:00:57

MsJane, while I generally tell people not to make decisions on what I say (I'm only an amateur) given the met office amber warnings, that's sensible.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:03:58

cortex part of the issue is when people see rain and think it's ok, it must have warmed up. We saw that a lot in the March event. It was very surreal.

Waitingfordolly Sat 15-Dec-18 09:09:25

I'm supposed to be traveling up to Leeds today for a big event too, we're going by train so not driving but still feeling a bit nervous about it, we will need to get cabs in Leeds as it's not in the centre. I both do and don't want to cancel!

ReturnofSaturn Sat 15-Dec-18 09:11:06

Oh crap. I'm meant to be driving from Blackpool to Sheffield today!!! What does everyone think??

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:18:58

dolly, make sure you have some supplies with you and have warm clothing in case it gets disrupted. Pay close attention to the train companies twitter feed for any service suspension.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:19:23

What time Saturn?

Waitingfordolly Sat 15-Dec-18 09:21:00

Thanks! I always have warm clothing with me as I'm already wimpy! We are planning on coming back today too but thinking we may pick up a cheap hotel room if people are cancelling.

ReturnofSaturn Sat 15-Dec-18 09:28:35

This afternoon setting off

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:38:40

That's a really good idea dolly.
Saturn while obviously the responsibility is down to you, personally I would postpone. While forecasts can change, the met office matrix has it has likely.

They have delayed the start time of the event to lunch time: "Updated to slightly delay the start time until 1300 Saturday when the more widespread freezing rain will arrive. Some isolated pockets of freezing rain are possible before this and are covered by the snow & ice warning."

Which given the radar isn't picking out any yet seems reasonable.

ReturnofSaturn Sat 15-Dec-18 09:43:31

Ok thanks for that OP.
Gutted meant to be seeing my friends and having night out in Sheffield for friends birthday sad
Think I will do the sensible thing for once.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 09:57:35

sad can you not head off straight away and stay over night?

I always feel really worried offering advice in case it is the wrong advice.

Eatmycheese Sat 15-Dec-18 09:59:17

We are off on Santa’s train ride in Cumbria today.
Intrepid as we are in slightly nervous and just hope we are almost back home before the worst hits.

Waitingfordolly Sat 15-Dec-18 10:03:49

Yeah IMO these things often end up not as bad as forecast and as long as you have a plan B and stay aware of what's going on I'd do it. Not if it involves driving in freezing rain though! I might be back later to eat my words....

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 10:05:18

Don't drive in freezing rain is one bit of advice I'm happy to give grin

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 10:12:09

Freezing rain has started... (red on this radar, yellow is sleet, white is snow)

It looks like isolated pockets for the time being.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 10:12:54

remember though that those colours are not very precise, it may not be exactly like that on the ground.

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Dec-18 11:04:16

Thoughts on today's weather from Netweather and TheWeatherOutlook.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 11:10:18

I'm wondering if the risk is turning more into a heavy snow scenario for people looking at the latest radar. The met office have a new warning out for heavy snow now.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Dec-18 11:14:24

I think we're going to fall into the rain/freezing rain category. It's very much 'calm before the storm' here at the moment.

Wetdressinggownsleeve Sat 15-Dec-18 11:17:35

Eek thanks for this you guys.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 11:29:53

I'm getting heavy cold rain at 2c. /Sigh.

brizzledrizzle Sat 15-Dec-18 11:57:07

We've been getting heavy rain mixed with ice drops and it's windy.

picklemebaubles Sat 15-Dec-18 13:48:29

Nottingham it's just been occasional flakes of snow or sleet.

SlowNorris Sat 15-Dec-18 14:09:12

We currently have a ‘feels like’ temperature of -6 but not snow or rain as of yet.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 14:26:59

How is elsewhere doing?

ConfusedDotty Sat 15-Dec-18 14:46:04

Very windy here, NE England, Tyneside . The sky looks heavy but no snow or rain yet. It’s bitterly cold.

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Dec-18 15:03:20

Leicester signing in here where it's dull and miserable. We had a sort of wintry drizzle from midday until about 1/2 an hour ago but now we've got a proper sleety/rain. Temperature's dropping quite quickly ~ was 2.7C at 1.36pm and it's now 1.9C

RoseDog Sat 15-Dec-18 15:15:44

We are being battered by it in Dundee, the dog walk was not fun, freezing rain hitting your face is painful!

Polgara2 Sat 15-Dec-18 15:22:52

Very wet and windy in Cheshire

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 15-Dec-18 15:26:42

We've had pouring rain and 3c, but I'm not in a warning area.

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