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Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

(266 Posts)
GloriaSmud Tue 14-Aug-18 11:08:25

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

Whatthefoxgoingon Thu 23-Aug-18 12:53:06

I’m hoping for another cold one

I wonder how Aeolus will change the forecasting landscape:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/science/2018/aug/23/satellite-aeolus-launched-space-map-earth-winds

GloriaSmud Sat 01-Sep-18 08:50:52

As it's the meteorological start of Autumn today, updated thoughts...

Long range from Netweather.
And from TheWeatherOutlook.

leesmum Sun 02-Sep-18 09:06:37

Thanks Gloria, interesting how they both mention that November could be colder than normal, do you think we will see a colder winter after having such a warm summer or doesn't it work that way? Thanks smile

GloriaSmud Mon 03-Sep-18 10:37:08

leesmum ~ I've been 'mulling over' the weather patterns that we had last winter and thinking how similar they are when it comes to the summer we've had e.g. high pressure over us, blocking rain systems from the west. I think if the quiet weather we've had continues through the next few months, then I suppose it makes sense, especially if Europe goes cold as well that we could get another cold winter. It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Polar Vortex/if we have another SSW which affects things over our part of the world as well.

The rest of the year could be interesting to watch to see how things develop!

neffall Wed 05-Sep-18 06:38:35

This morning I have opened the curtains to see a pink sky. Are we bypassing Autumn then and going straight into winter?

neffall Wed 05-Sep-18 06:42:43

Ignore me, I'm too asleep. Am I looking at the sunrise?

GloriaSmud Wed 05-Sep-18 07:31:16

I think at that time, neffall, it was probably the sunrise!

BalthazarImpresario Wed 05-Sep-18 09:25:27

I notice that the express have moved from 'KILLER HEATWAVE' style headlines to 'plunging into early winter' stories.
They do make me laugh.

neffall Wed 05-Sep-18 12:18:06

blush

GloriaSmud Fri 07-Sep-18 10:39:55

More from TheWeatherOutlook. They have their thoughts on Christmas 2018 here and here.

Womaningreen Mon 10-Sep-18 17:19:39

BBC are talking about El
Nino for winter

I can't figure out what means blush

Colder or warmer than usual?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45471409

GloriaSmud Wed 12-Sep-18 12:29:52

Womaningreen ~ There's a good explanation here on El Niño and La Niña.

This weather model is going for a blocked winter ~ so could possibly be another cold one.

Womaningreen Wed 12-Sep-18 15:45:36

Thanks Gloria

The bbc reference to 2015/16 confused me too as I don't recall it being particularly cold.

BiddyPop Fri 14-Sep-18 13:25:18

I'm starting to pay more attention again to weather forecasts as winter approaches (with summer, I am only generally looking a day or 2 ahead - is it warm, wet or windy and does that change the clothes needed for camps - with winter I need to think slightly more strategically and plan the week ahead and maybe longer).

Early signals are that really summery clothes are already packed away, and I am no longer wearing shorts (I was until late September last year) but the water is starting to increase again and the ground is not so parched.

I'm still not convinced about buying a new pair of snowboots yet though....

GloriaSmud Sat 15-Sep-18 09:05:20

Updated thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook.

GloriaSmud Tue 25-Sep-18 06:39:44

Could be some chilly mornings this week. 1.7C this morning and the heating's come on shock

BiddyPop Wed 26-Sep-18 11:36:28

It was 0 degrees on Monday when we woke up, but has warmed up a little again (I didn't get to look the other mornings but the car was 13.5 degrees this morning, compared to 5 on Monday, leaving at the same time).

High level scattered clouds with lots of sunshine today. Forecasters talking about very little rain in the foreseeable future - potentially not good for reservoirs needing refilling still. But they do seem to have recovered somewhat compared to the summer very low levels.

Perihelion Wed 26-Sep-18 20:03:29

We had some cold nights at the start of the week, then a windy 14c last night and weirdly warm at 18c now when it's dark and 8pm.
I love the nights drawing in. I get to my bed much earlier and all the leaves are starting to look very pretty.

GloriaSmud Wed 26-Sep-18 21:06:12

We didn't realise until the school run yesterday morning, that the temperatures had been so low that we'd had a frost, so there was some mild scraping of car windscreens. After tomorrow, it looks like there might be some more cold nights/frosts coming so the ice scraper might be needed quite a few times in the next few weeks!

Ilmb Thu 27-Sep-18 19:31:36

gloria what are your personal thoughts on this winter? I thought it wouldn’t be like last winter but on the radio today they were saying November will be Baltic and bets were being taken for a white Christmas...

GloriaSmud Thu 27-Sep-18 21:00:45

Ilmb ~ I think if things stay as calm as they are now, with not a lot in the way of low pressure systems coming from the west then yes, we could see a cold winter. Whether that means snow is another matter though but as I've seen it said on many weather forums, once the cold's in place, then what falls from the sky could possibly be the white stuff!

Ilmb Fri 28-Sep-18 06:50:17

Thanks Gloria. What do you think of the guy who does the weather from nature? Can’t remember his name just now but he goes on this morning sometimes, he looks at berries, plants, birds etc. It’s fascinating and he’s always been spot on BUT he didn’t predict the 2 month drought this year..

Justmuddlingalong Fri 28-Sep-18 19:18:52

Dave King?

Ilmb Fri 28-Sep-18 19:28:28

Yeah that’s the one. He’s fascinating! He’s always got it spot on apart from the 2 month drought this summer. He doesn’t think the Winter will be that cold etc

GloriaSmud Sat 29-Sep-18 08:27:42

This chap?
I've seen on some weather forums, posters totally dismiss what he has to say. For me, I'm not sure whether hedgerow plants/fruits etc can be used in a big way to say what the coming months will bring, as how they're growing now is down to how the past Spring/summer has been but the rest of it is interesting and (apart from his forecast for the summer we've just had), he seems to have quite a good success rate!

Ilmb Sat 29-Sep-18 13:11:08

That’s him. Iv watched him in this morning and predict quite far ahead, the forth coming winter/summer at the time and he’s always been right. As I said he didn’t predict this summer! He doesn’t think we’ll have a hard winter but in the news they think it will be Baltic from beginning of November but the news always seem to catastrophise!

GloriaSmud Tue 02-Oct-18 07:56:20

Interesting thoughts from Brian Gaze at TheWeatherOutlook ~ and probably along the lines that I've been thinking when it comes to this winter.

GloriaSmud Fri 05-Oct-18 06:46:36

In other parts of the world - the IceHotel in Sweden has had its first snow of the winter and Calgary has had record amounts for October!

GloriaSmud Fri 05-Oct-18 11:35:23

And Rovaniemi (Finland) has a slight covering as well now.

GloriaSmud Wed 10-Oct-18 12:52:39

Useful website here ~ Snow cover in Europe.

HillsBesideTheSea Fri 19-Oct-18 08:03:47

Quick question. People keep telling me it is going to snow for Halloween. That is our half term and I was going to book to go away (UK but with long distance driving) are we likely to have snow and probably best not to book in advance or are people scare mongering and exaggerating and it should be find to get organised in advance?

Ok with either or but would be nice to have some sort of indication of expectation (eg YAY going away can't wait, vs might happen could be nice, we'll see)

GloriaSmud Sun 21-Oct-18 19:14:40

HillsBesideTheSea ~ (Hope it isn't too late to reply) It's a bit far into the future to be sure but at the moment, it's looking chilly for the whole country from next weekend onwards and there could be snow for the hilly areas of Scotland and possibly snow showers for the Peak District.

If you want somewhere not-so-cold, perhaps head for the south, SW or SE, especially for later on in the week (1st/2nd November) when it looks like it could warm up slightly (again, this is waaaay into the future to be certain!)

GloriaSmud Sun 21-Oct-18 19:23:46

TheWeatherOutlook's latest thoughts on the coming Winter ~ they're going for an increased chance that it's going to be a cold one.

HillsBesideTheSea Sun 21-Oct-18 19:36:26

Ooooo that is good news and totally allows some planning ahead. Will just plan to throw snow chains and the ofrs in car in case of adverse weather. Thank you Gloria

PointlessUsername Sun 21-Oct-18 21:49:08

Hoping for a cold one.. so i am happy grin

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Oct-18 08:50:31

How did I not see this thread when I started one? blush sorry Gloria.

Anyway, there's potential for some sleet and snow showers even in the south going into next Saturday.

Wiggler1 Mon 22-Oct-18 18:26:51

I’d like to put in a request for no snow in the south east this year please. Last year I got cut off from my horses, was an absolute disaster. Contemplating snow chains for the car this year.

GloriaSmud Mon 22-Oct-18 19:49:21

OYBBK ~ I started the thread when I noticed TheWeatherOutlook had posted some initial thoughts on winter. I can't believe that was as long ago as August! shock

Wiggler ~ your request has been noted! I'd like occasional snow/cold snaps and for this winter to be not as long as the last one!

hoochymama1 Mon 22-Oct-18 20:48:28

Yes please to a bit of cold/occasional flurry but not as bad as last winter. Snow chains would be an idea. If they were in the garage you'd know it would turn out quite mild 

BernardsarenotalwaysSaints Mon 22-Oct-18 22:07:09

Thank you for the link OYBBK.

So...it's not naffed off? I didn't expect that! Dh & I were talking & neither of us can remember sleet/snow falling (or settling) before very late Nov/early December where we are.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Oct-18 22:43:17

def not naffed off! I'll put a pic on the snow thread smile

Blimey Gloria!

HillsBesideTheSea Tue 23-Oct-18 18:08:58

Wait there is a snow thread. And bollocks to snow this weekend. Seriously was this weather break just waiting for me to book my holiday?! Wait for it, wait for it... Holiday booked - quick drop the temperatures and snow... All the snow.

Been blooming trying to hail here today sad

BiddyPop Wed 31-Oct-18 11:28:24

Can I ask about the swirling lump of cloud out in the Atlantic right now - do the weather gurus think it will cause disruption here or will it fizzle out to just normal autumn rain/bit of wind by the time it gets here (possibly in 2-3 days?)?

I'm slightly fearful for 2 reasons -
1 - just dealing with winter storms in general when I am too busy for disruption.
and
2- dealing with heavy winds when I am supposed to be training on Saturday for sailing in races on Sunday - our coach is one of the ladies who is all gung-ho for adventure, but I am still a beginner compared to most of them.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 31-Oct-18 13:28:20

Biddy that's ex hurricane Oscar. I'm not worried about it. It will get quite windy in the west, especially Wales and north west England into northern Scotland in the early hours of Saturday, but nothing too dramatic. Where are you sailing though? Could be disruptive from that point of view.

BiddyPop Wed 31-Oct-18 14:54:18

Dun Laoghaire - across the Irish Sea, directly west of Holyhead

Oh well, I'll remind myself of rigging and decline to go out if it's too hairy for me....probably better as I had already rearranged the hairdresser for that morning before the sailing was added to the calendar, and it would be nice not to spoil the cut as soon as its finished!!

Ex-hurricane Ophelia was quite disruptive last year - (I think that was after Storm Brian) - some stupid not quite sensible coach decided to take out youngish kids sailing and some boats got destroyed (1 was brand new that morning!), while 2 sets of older kids in 2 other classes did shore-based work instead (all 3 groups had international coaches over that weekend, and 1 didn't want to lose the opportunity). Hopefully exH Oscar will be kinder than that!! grin

GloriaSmud Wed 31-Oct-18 18:58:52

Fog Warning for Northern Ireland tonight.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 03-Nov-18 09:23:20

The weather looks set to become very benign through the first half of November, with some warm temperatures by day - touching the mid teens in places. A large high over scandinavia looks set to block the atlantic.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 04-Nov-18 09:01:29

The latest GFS and ECMWF models reverse this some and bring in quite wet and windy weather this week. Both are contrary to the met office forecast though.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 04-Nov-18 09:08:05

The met office contingency planners forecast paint a complex picture. At the moment they are saying the next three months are slightly more likely to be warmer than average rather than colder than average and that overall it is more likely to be wetter than average with the potential for stormy wet weather being higher than average. November's forecast is particularly problematic - as we sit between high pressure to the east and the atlantic weather systems to the west. How influential one is over the other depends on the strength of the jet stream and the exact position of the blocking high.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v1.pdf
www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v1.pdf

JillJ72 Sun 04-Nov-18 09:18:59

Looks like 5 Nov is going to be very mild, up to 15°C, like last year. It will be the second year in a row that it's unusually warm, as it's normally quite cold at 7-8°C max... We also haven't had the run of October storms in the same way...

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 04-Nov-18 22:39:45

It feels odd doesn't it.

GloriaSmud Tue 06-Nov-18 12:06:22

For an early festive scene, the Christmas tree has gone up in Rovaniemi, Finland (One of my 'go-to' webcams for seeing snow when we don't have any, except they haven't got any either at the moment!)

GloriaSmud Tue 06-Nov-18 12:12:37

Weather warnings for wind and rain issued by the metoffice for tomorrow and Friday.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 06-Nov-18 13:35:46

you have to look to the US mid west for snow at the moment! They appear to be hogging much of it.

Friday does look potentially disruptive, with leaves still firmly attached to trees in places, winds could bring large branches and small trees down in the SW. Gusts to 70mph possible.

GloriaSmud Tue 06-Nov-18 14:19:17

Are they indeed! <goes off to Google mid west webcams>
Finse (Norway) has got a good covering.

JillJ72 Tue 06-Nov-18 20:29:55

We're now going into wet, windy and mild.... I'm used to son's bonfire birthday being cold, followed by more cold; not walking around in clothing to cover all seasonal outputs....

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 07-Nov-18 10:02:43

We may get some thunder and hail this afternoon following the clearance of this mornings weather front.

birdsofafeather Wed 07-Nov-18 11:13:28

Where do you predict the thunder?
Wet and windy here in sussex

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 07-Nov-18 13:43:55

I think more to the west and central areas.

birdsofafeather Wed 07-Nov-18 13:52:03

Oh good
I have to go out later and I don't want to be out in thunder

TokyoSushi Wed 07-Nov-18 21:40:27

Is there a storm/bad weather coming on Friday? @OhYouBadBadKitten @GloriaSmud

TokyoSushi Wed 07-Nov-18 21:41:40

You're ready on it (of course!) I posted before the thread had updated! blush

GloriaSmud Thu 08-Nov-18 06:29:28

TokyoSushi ~ smile Yes, tomorrow looks rather unpleasant for Ireland for most of the day and then the wind/rain crosses the UK later tomorrow/into tomorrow night.

birdsofafeather Thu 08-Nov-18 08:48:01

We have gusts of 55mph expected tomorrow night but no wind warning !?
Yet we've had wind warnings for gusts of a lot less before
Weird

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 08-Nov-18 08:52:18

Birds where is that 55mph from? The met office website?

birdsofafeather Thu 08-Nov-18 09:24:49

Yup

birdsofafeather Thu 08-Nov-18 09:25:31

West sussex I am

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 08-Nov-18 09:28:16

When I'm at home I'll take a look for you.

GloriaSmud Thu 08-Nov-18 09:58:48

birdsofafeather ~ You might be covered by the updated weather warnings here.

birdsofafeather Thu 08-Nov-18 11:05:16

Ah yes we are
Just !

GloriaSmud Fri 09-Nov-18 08:53:58

Already looking rather stormy on the Dawlish webcam.

BiddyPop Fri 09-Nov-18 10:01:40

Quite calm in Dublin yet. And while it is very overcast, they are high clouds so far (atmospherically speaking - I am rubbish on what types are what) and no rain.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 09-Nov-18 10:55:30

updated amber warnings for rain.

Looks like a fairly wet and wild night tonight.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 09-Nov-18 17:38:49

TORRO have issued a convective discussion on their facebook page for the potential for isolated tornadoes across much of England and Wales tonight.

GloriaSmud Fri 09-Nov-18 19:20:54

I'm watching the Dawlish webcam (link posted this morning) at the moment. The height of the waves are shock but the water all over the road has only occurred in the last hour. Lots of cars parked along the road have moved since then but there are still 2 parked there which are now in the water.

GloriaSmud Fri 09-Nov-18 19:23:25

SW Travel News ~ quite a lot going on.

birdsofafeather Fri 09-Nov-18 19:40:07

I really dislike stormy weather
I'm in West sussex and feel really worried

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 09-Nov-18 20:30:45

ah, don't be worried birds. Round your way, though it's very windy, it shouldn't be damaging. The first storm of the season always sounds worse than it is.

Believeitornot Fri 09-Nov-18 21:56:09

I’m in West Sussex. Sounds worse inside than outside (was driving in it about 30 mins ago!)

GloriaSmud Sun 11-Nov-18 07:31:00

Signs of colder things to come?

Metoffice Outlook from Thursday onwards....

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:
Mostly dry on Thursday, but quite cloudy for some with the best of the bright or sunny spells in the southeast and to the lee of high ground. Rain may persist in the far northwest for a time. Overnight mist and fog patches are possible which will be slow to clear on Friday morning. Through the end of the week mild, dry weather looks set to extend across many areas with rain confined to northwestern parts. Early mist and fog may become more prevalent across the south and eastern, while windier conditions will reduce this risk in the northwest. However, there is a greater chance for overnight frosts in the north. These drier than average conditions may continue through the end of the period, with temperatures gradually returning to normal.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2018 to Sunday 9 Dec 2018:
During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 11-Nov-18 09:20:58

That's interesting Gloria. At the end of the gfs run this morning a blocking high forms over eastern Europe with us on the edge of it.

In the meantime, fog looks like it could be a bit of an issue.

GloriaSmud Sun 11-Nov-18 14:41:32

I saw the high pressure forming at the end of the run and wondered if this could be the start of something....

Winter is coming
<hums 'Game of Thrones' theme tunelessly>

GloriaSmud Mon 12-Nov-18 07:55:18

This mornings Outlook from the metoffice....

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2018 to Sunday 25 Nov 2018:
Friday and the weekend look mostly dry with variable, sometimes large amounts of cloud, with the brightest conditions likely to the north of high ground and possibly more generally across northern and north-eastern parts of the British Isles. Overnight mist and fog patches are possible, which could be slow to clear. The only exception will be western Scotland and perhaps parts of Northern Ireland which may see some wet and windy weather, chiefly at first. After a locally chilly start, daytime temperatures will again be mild. During the following week little change is expected to the weather. The far west and northwest could have some patchy rain, whilst the majority hold onto settled conditions. However, a general drop in temperature is forecast, with an increasing risk of night frost.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2018 to Monday 10 Dec 2018:
This period is likely to begin with a continuation of the mainly dry conditions, with variable cloud and some sunshine, once morning fog patches clear. However, there will be an increasing chance of some more unsettled interludes developing, with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average overall, with a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. These colder conditions will be accompanied by an increased chance of snow, particularly for northern hills, during any spells of more unsettled weather.

They're almost wetting themselves with excitement on the Netweather message boards! (Over the possible cold that could be coming.)

BiddyPop Mon 12-Nov-18 08:35:21

I'm not impressed with the forecasters after this weekend. Yes it was torrential rain on Friday, as predicted. But Saturday was due to be dry, apart from a small chance of light rain in the late evening. But it poured down on us as we gathered the Cubs from their doting parents, who were looking at us like we were nuts going hillwalking. Luckily, it did mostly dry enough for the walking, but there was more torrential rain on Saturday evening (so the Cubs got soaked while out exploring at the hostel!) and then there STILL was the light rain which went on longer than forecast in the later evening while we were trying to have a campfire. And then more yesterday.....right about the time the Cubs were due home (I was back in the Scout Den by then doing a 1st aid course, I abandoned the Cubs to the other leaders from breakfast time).

It was like walking through a river coming down the mountain, not a grassy field....

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 12-Nov-18 09:15:34

Various surface troughs developed over the weekend. It was certainly more lively than I'd anticipated.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 12-Nov-18 09:17:09

It is quite funny how excited they are getting on twitter too.

The possibility of below average temperatures interests me, but it is winter and at least some cold should generally be expected.

GloriaSmud Mon 12-Nov-18 18:38:28

Some thoughts from Brian Gaze at TheWeatherOutlook.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 12-Nov-18 20:42:28

There's a bit of hopecasting in that post but it was an interesting read.

BlackeyedGruesome Mon 12-Nov-18 21:55:13

We had thunder and lightning after school today.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 13-Nov-18 07:29:33

Twitter are continuing to ramp up the cold forecasts this am.

birdsofafeather Tue 13-Nov-18 07:57:12

Nooooooo
Please no snow

GloriaSmud Tue 13-Nov-18 09:49:52

TheWeatherOutlook are using the words 'a wintry outlook' this morning.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 13-Nov-18 22:22:01

I think they are right to, increasing model consistency for a sharp drop in temperatures next week.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 20-Nov-18 08:42:59

I've updated the snow watch thread for today.
Longer term we do look to be seeing a general trend towards average or below average temps for the time being. So far, apart from one stormy patch, it's been a very quiet autumn.

BiddyPop Tue 20-Nov-18 21:27:01

We may not have snow yet, but it’s significantly colder today with a real feel of 1degree (easterly wind makes it worse). And torrential rain - on and off all day. Even had 2 close by flashes of lightening tonight too. But seems calmer again now.

GloriaSmud Sat 24-Nov-18 18:17:19

Think there might be some weather warning/s for wind/rain for some areas for Wednesday. Possible wind gusts 3pm.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 24-Nov-18 22:54:57

yup, I think you are right Gloria.

TokyoSushi Mon 26-Nov-18 18:23:44

What's happening with Storm Diana @OhYouBadBadKitten @GloriaSmud ?

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 26-Nov-18 18:34:01

It's been named has it?
I've started a new thread on it, so it stands out more smile

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