Thunderstorm risk this week.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm going to keep an eye on the models and try and highlight where the greatest risk of thunderstorms might be and when this week.

At the moment, the highest risk appears to be tuesday evening, after a hot to very hot day for many (perhaps just warm for some northern coastal areas). Temperatures around London could be around 33/34C and 30C quite widely in the Midlands.

That evening (tomorrow evening!) it looks as though this plume of hot air could then destabilise. At the moment GFS has the highest risk of severe storms around the Liverpool/Manchester/Birmingham and north Wales region. However, there is a good risk of moderate storms showing later on in the night through the Exeter region and upwards. The SE appears to escape the main risk area.

As always with storm forecasting there are no promises. Its a bit like a forest fire really, sometimes all of the conditions can be perfect, yet a spark dies out quickly, other times a blaze can take hold. Also, one town may see a huge storm, while the next one sees nothing.

I will update as we go through today and tomorrow.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

no change to the forecast at present.

[notsomanky]

Storms

[GloriaSmud]

Signing in from North Wales (on holiday atm). I like a good storm so will be on the lookout for them tomorrow evening!

[BalthazarImpresario]

I would love a big ol storm in North Hampshire, we don't often get good ones though. Fingers crossed.

[TheGirlOnTheLanding]

Beautiful blue skies here and planning on putting a washing out (SE Scotland). Hope the storms don't make it this far!

[planeymcplaneface]

My current view from central scotland just now. Oh i hope we get thunder tomorrow its needed to clear the air plus i love listening to it too

[MaddyHatter]

i know we've got a yellow warning out for 9pm onwards here in Shropshire tomorrow, even though the chance for rain is still showing as

[AnyFucker]

Ooh yes please

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Looking at the latest run, I'd extend the risk to much of Yorkshire too.
heavy rain warnings

[OppositeOfGenius]

Hurrah! The last predicted one here never happened though, so I will only half rejoice for now...

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

The main area of risk still appears to be in the north west - with some pretty potent storms possible. Risks are for flooding, frequent lightning, large hail.
Thunderstorms are possible across a large swathe of England, Wales and southern Scotland.

Please see disclaimer at start of thread!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Update: same areas most at risk as before, it doesn't mean that other areas are not at risk. I think that the risk of large hail has subsided, but it could be favourable to generate one or two tornadoes.

estofex have issued a level 1 warning. Still waiting for the met office to update their warnings, probably around lunch time.

[GloriaSmud]

N. Wales. 29c atm. Spent 45 (well-lathered-with-suncream) minutes on the beach this morning but are now back inside for the next couple of hours.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

31c here am indoors too! but working.
updated warnings. I think there may be some flash ambers before tomorrow is out.

[Hopelass]

I'm in Bolton so will be on the lookout for the storms! Poor DS won't be happy though, he hates them

[GloriaSmud]

We've got an outdoor pool at this caravan park. Oh how we laughed when we booked here thinking we wouldn't use it but we're going to try it out later!
Think any storms will hit us around midnight/early tomorrow - the lovely Carol Kirkwood used the word 'humdingers' to describe them this morning!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

seem to have peaked at 32c. Ironically I'm in an area that is getting the heat but has a low prob of storms tonight.

[AnyFucker]

I got in my car after work and the temp gauge said 42 deg

Even after driving home with the air con on it only went down to 32 deg

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

32 will be the real outside temp, which is bloody hot. Some car temp sensors are in stupid places which allow them to heat up in the sun giving false readings. Still it shows that sitting out in the sun would be enough to cook your brains!

[AnyFucker]

Yeah. Not really 42 deg.

Bloody hot until the air con kicked in though

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

must have been absolutely roasting!!!!

[GloriaSmud]

Sunshine's getting hazy and we've got a decent breeze now. Can see some puffy thunder-type clouds building over Mount Snowdon way.

[AnyFucker]

I am in my garden on a sun lounger with a cold cider

It's still 30 deg but yes, a bit of a (warm) wind getting up and the hitherto bright blue sky has some clouds appearing

[GloriaSmud]

Breeze has gone now. Darker clouds rolling in from SW direction.

[Cadsuane]

Lots of thunder in Glasgow just now but haven't noticed lightning yet and no rain.