keeping weather eye on Thurs 23rd. - south and se

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Idly looking through the coming weeks weather models. On GFS Thursday stands out as a day with potential for some severe thunderstorms in the south and south east. It shows a low pressure area bringing some very warm and moist air up from the south, with a lot of energy available to creat some cracking weather.

Caveats: ECMWF and UKMO aren't quite so gung ho I don't think, but I can see more detail with the GFS model, so it's easier to interpret. The met office website shows nothing of the sort. As I'm just an amateur, please use the met office website before making/cancelling plans.

[megletthesecond]

Thanks. Met office still have north Hampshire down as a pleasant day. Need to vote before /after work so I'll see how it pans out.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

oh no! Despite being a bit of a campaigner I didn't put the two together.
Stay away storms! I don't want to get soggy!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Met office forecast and charts from the GFS are beginning to merge scenarios now. GFS isn't as gung ho as it was, but still shows the potential for decent thunderstorms. Met office are going for thunderstorms for the midlands. GFS, the risk seems more SE and EA I'd say.

might be some grumbly storms about this afternoon too.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

and the met office are fully on board with the risk for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight and through tomorrow
met office warnings

Not that anyone is paying attention lol!

[notsomanky]

We seem to be escaping the storms this week.

The last few weeks we have definitely had more that our usual amount up here.

Our usual summer weather, but more so!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

we've only had one night with storms so far, I'm not sure we will get any from this patch, but then thats the nature of storms

[HairsprayQueen]

Humid and misty here so far today in my part of the south east, feels like a storm should be brewing (my hair is certainly feeling it!)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

wetather cast fb have more on the potential storm situation.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

amber rain warnings now for the far se

[IrenetheQuaint]

Drat, I have a meeting in Canterbury and was looking forward to a nice wander round the city afterwards!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You may be absolutely fine :) thunderstorms are very hit or miss!

[GloriaSmud]

Lots of lightning strikes showing up in the Channel at the moment.

Netweather now give total lightning strikes ~ will be interesting what totals they give after the overnight storms.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

it's so close, but I'm not sure how much will make it over.

[HairsprayQueen]

We've had lots of thunder and some lightning- one bit was so bright I thought it was coming through the window! I'm right on the coast though so the actual strikes looked quite far in the sea on Dh's app.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

oh lovely! I would love to live overlooking the sea. It would be my dream location.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

rain is starting here.

[BlackeyedSusan]

there is a newish storm that is charging up towards london via dorking. they were all mainly up the channel for ages now suddenly going more inland rather than just coastal regions.

[Titsywoo]

Just started raining here in East Surrey and I can hear thunder in the distance...

[BlackeyedSusan]

hope you are ok titsy

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Absolutely love storms! Up early in the morning though so it would be quite nice if they could tip toe round me!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Apparently not!

haven't lightning detector maps improved massively since we first started doing these threads and had to rely on the IOW detector?

[pepperrabbit]

Nothing so far here, just a bit of rain (NE Hampshire)
I love a decent thunderstorm. Though I should go to bed instead of watching the lightning map!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

pepper, there is a nice cluster of cells not far from you. I'm more hopeful for your area tomorrow afternoon/evening, if there isn't too much clag left over from tonight.

[chantico]

How long will it last, and how far north will it reach?

I ask because DS is doing is Duke Of Ed expedition. Better tell him to add an extra towel and use lots of plastic bags even packing.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

There are two pulses, one over night tonight then another probable one tomorrow afternoon into the evening . If you draw a line between the Wash and the IOW I think it will be mostly confined to south of that line.