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keeping weather eye on Thurs 23rd. - south and se

(67 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 19-Jun-16 08:57:03

Idly looking through the coming weeks weather models. On GFS Thursday stands out as a day with potential for some severe thunderstorms in the south and south east. It shows a low pressure area bringing some very warm and moist air up from the south, with a lot of energy available to creat some cracking weather.

Caveats: ECMWF and UKMO aren't quite so gung ho I don't think, but I can see more detail with the GFS model, so it's easier to interpret. The met office website shows nothing of the sort. As I'm just an amateur, please use the met office website before making/cancelling plans.

megletthesecond Sun 19-Jun-16 15:36:39

Thanks. Met office still have north Hampshire down as a pleasant day. Need to vote before /after work so I'll see how it pans out.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 19-Jun-16 17:29:09

oh no! Despite being a bit of a campaigner I didn't put the two together.
Stay away storms! I don't want to get soggy!

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 20-Jun-16 13:39:33

Met office forecast and charts from the GFS are beginning to merge scenarios now. GFS isn't as gung ho as it was, but still shows the potential for decent thunderstorms. Met office are going for thunderstorms for the midlands. GFS, the risk seems more SE and EA I'd say.

might be some grumbly storms about this afternoon too.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 08:05:20

and the met office are fully on board with the risk for severe thunderstorms overnight tonight and through tomorrow
met office warnings

Not that anyone is paying attention lol!

notsomanky Wed 22-Jun-16 08:12:40

We seem to be escaping the storms this week.

The last few weeks we have definitely had more that our usual amount up here.

Our usual summer weather, but more so!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 08:38:08

we've only had one night with storms so far, I'm not sure we will get any from this patch, but then thats the nature of storms grin

HairsprayQueen Wed 22-Jun-16 09:03:54

Humid and misty here so far today in my part of the south east, feels like a storm should be brewing (my hair is certainly feeling it!)

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 10:30:56

wetather cast fb have more on the potential storm situation.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 11:12:08

amber rain warnings now for the far se

IrenetheQuaint Wed 22-Jun-16 16:01:38

Drat, I have a meeting in Canterbury and was looking forward to a nice wander round the city afterwards!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 16:12:05

You may be absolutely fine smile thunderstorms are very hit or miss!

GloriaSmud Wed 22-Jun-16 21:14:56

Lots of lightning strikes showing up in the Channel at the moment.

Netweather now give total lightning strikes ~ will be interesting what totals they give after the overnight storms.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 21:50:10

it's so close, but I'm not sure how much will make it over.

HairsprayQueen Wed 22-Jun-16 21:56:09

We've had lots of thunder and some lightning- one bit was so bright I thought it was coming through the window! I'm right on the coast though so the actual strikes looked quite far in the sea on Dh's app.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 21:59:25

oh lovely! I would love to live overlooking the sea. It would be my dream location.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 22:26:07

rain is starting here.

BlackeyedSusan Wed 22-Jun-16 22:30:19

there is a newish storm that is charging up towards london via dorking. they were all mainly up the channel for ages now suddenly going more inland rather than just coastal regions.

Titsywoo Wed 22-Jun-16 22:32:26

Just started raining here in East Surrey and I can hear thunder in the distance...

BlackeyedSusan Wed 22-Jun-16 22:36:47

hope you are ok titsy

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 22:37:57

Absolutely love storms! Up early in the morning though so it would be quite nice if they could tip toe round me!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 22:39:55

Apparently not!

haven't lightning detector maps improved massively since we first started doing these threads and had to rely on the IOW detector?

pepperrabbit Wed 22-Jun-16 22:40:49

Nothing so far here, just a bit of rain sad (NE Hampshire)
I love a decent thunderstorm. Though I should go to bed instead of watching the lightning map!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 22-Jun-16 22:42:21

pepper, there is a nice cluster of cells not far from you. I'm more hopeful for your area tomorrow afternoon/evening, if there isn't too much clag left over from tonight.

chantico Wed 22-Jun-16 22:43:34

How long will it last, and how far north will it reach?

I ask because DS is doing is Duke Of Ed expedition. Better tell him to add an extra towel and use lots of plastic bags even packing.

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