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Badkittens just for fun winter weather guesscast thread.

(203 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 14-Oct-15 08:40:58

Well, its that time of year where we start wondering about the winter to come. Will it be mild, wet, stormy or buckets of snow for all?

Of course it is impossible to tell, last years guesscast went quite well, but probably down to luck and vagueness of words grin

There is much talk of El Nino - and it is a very strong one at present. NOAA give a 95% probability of El Nino persisting through this winter. El Nino afftects temperatures in the Pacific – warming parts of it. This can have a knock on effect for us, though not always as great as people seem to think. However it cannot be ignored. It seems to be associated with cold winters, but not exclusively, mild and wet winters have also occurred during El Nino.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can also have an affect. It is hard to forecast this more than a couple of weeks in advance – there seem to be a wide spread of solutions in two weeks. To predict it we need to look at the temperatures in the Atlantic. The north Atlantic is colder than usual but the tropical Atlantic is warmer than usual. Interesting. The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild.
As a result of their positive NOA prediction the met office are suggesting that it is more likely to be a warmer than average Oct-Dec than a colder than average winter. here Somewhat amusingly though they also suggest that the Oct-Dec period is more likely to be wetter than average. Well, half way through Oct and looking forward, this forecast doesn’t seem to be playing out. Their next issue will be in about 10 days time .
Another factor to look at is towards the east – any long lasting cold air tends to come from that direction. And we have an impressive start to the season. Russia has had widespread snowfall, in fact, some are saying that it is a record start. If it doesn’t thaw (it is very early in the season!) this is good news for cold weather.

So where are we at? Conflicting ideas – it could be a very cold winter, there are indications to support that but equally many factors contradict those signals. We will just have to wait and see.

Next update, end of half term smile

SideOrderofChips Wed 14-Oct-15 12:05:42

Wooo Settles down with blankets and hot choccie for another winter thread

SpottyTeacakes Wed 14-Oct-15 12:06:22

Yay fgrin thanks OYBBK

FinglesMcStingles Wed 14-Oct-15 12:08:38

I know nothing of the weather, but OYBBK's threads are always an education. I'll just be lurking under many blankets over here.

RoseDog Wed 14-Oct-15 12:15:00

We've had a cool freezing summer and going by past years cool summers equals mild winters, last year was eerily mild it didn't feel like winter at all, I'm in east Scotland.

leesmum Wed 14-Oct-15 12:31:00

Thank you flowers

Mumtorobbie Wed 14-Oct-15 12:35:48

Ooh I love your threads OYBBK. I've got the log fire ready and hot chocolate standing by in preparation for the next update.

lubeybooby Wed 14-Oct-15 12:51:27

Oh I really hope it's a cold, dry one. Those are my fave. Mild and wet sucks.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 14-Oct-15 13:17:31

Feels like we are in autumn proper now the thread is started! grin

MrSlant Wed 14-Oct-15 13:24:11

Autumn is really starting to kick in on the West coast here, driving to the nearest big town on Monday and there were so many leaves swirling about, it was beautiful. Lots of foggy mornings and geese calling. Love this time of year.

I have no predictions, tried to educate myself to what the El Niño could bring but as it's could be colder, could be wetter, could make no difference as far as I can tell, I'm on the fence for this one. Well when I say on the fence, I mean here in the corner on my beanbag with a nice blanket and hot choc watching everyone else chatter smile.

GloriaSmud Wed 14-Oct-15 13:46:25

I hope that's it going to be a cold and dry winter too, with maybe a few snow days over Christmas/New Year.
The Weather Outlook has some Autumn/winter thoughts here and their Christmas forecast is here.

HellKitty Wed 14-Oct-15 13:48:22

Place marking! I'm getting married soon and don't know whether I'll look like a drowned rat or not confused

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 14-Oct-15 14:03:48

hellkitty, if it is over the next couple of weeks proably not, though some showers down the eastern coast are possible at any time.

MeAndTheMajor Wed 14-Oct-15 14:11:23

Placemarking. I love a good winter weather thread smile

GothicRainbow Wed 14-Oct-15 16:41:23

Yay love a weather thread! Here's hoping for cold & dry!!

Boredofthinkingofnewnames Wed 14-Oct-15 16:46:41

Lots of snow pleasesmile

SaskiaRembrandtWasFramed Wed 14-Oct-15 17:53:19

Marking my place - hoping it's going to mild and wet, I hate being cold.

hoochymama1 Wed 14-Oct-15 19:14:31

You spoil us, OYBBK grin
You are a star

susurration Wed 14-Oct-15 19:41:26

Oooh this is fab. I love a good bit of weather speculation. I suspect long and cold this year, judging by the behaviour of some of the animals where I work.

MrsJorahMormont Wed 14-Oct-15 20:56:15

The weather here has been beautifully autumnal - sunny, crisp and clear with heavy dew in the mornings. We have the central heating on at night though!

MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig Wed 14-Oct-15 21:37:45

Ooh lots of snow for us too please. We haven't had any for two years. I'd like my dds to get to build a snowman before they're too old to want to.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 14-Oct-15 22:14:41

wouldnt it be lovely to be able to grant peoples wishes. Bloody complicated though, I fear those who didnt express a wish would have to put up with floods due to high temperature gradients grin

MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig Wed 14-Oct-15 22:19:20

You mean you can't give me snow OYBBK? shock

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 14-Oct-15 22:31:06


mrselizabethdarcy Wed 14-Oct-15 22:35:37

Oooh I love weather talk! Thanks OYBBK.

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