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Concerned about the storm at the weekend (east coast please pay attention)

(75 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Dec-14 13:05:21

It is early days yet but I am concerned that there is the potential for severe coastal flooding along the east coast from the storm that looks to move in boxing day evening and into Saturday. I really hope I am wrong and I really hope that the models change. There is some inconsistency between the models and so the track and depth of the storm is not pinned down at present. These will both have an impact on the final outcome.

If I lived along vulnerable coastal areas then I would at this point be ensuring that I know where my flood defences are because it will be difficult to sort out over Christmas itself. Those who know me from other threads know that I don't say these things lightly. I don't believe in scaremongering but I do believe in preparation. If Christmas weren't in between now and then I would hold off for another day or two until I was more certain.

Gales or severe gales look likely for some.

Remember that I am an amateur though. met office warnings environment agency flood warnings are the places to check closer to the time. I do apologise hugely if I am worrying anyone and it turns out not to be necessary but as I said I hope I'm wrong and look foolish for sounding the alarm over what is at present is a potential severe event.

iseenodust Mon 22-Dec-14 13:13:14

Thanks. We're not right on the coast but lots of relatives planning to travel home boxing day night.

PestoStormissimos Mon 22-Dec-14 13:16:31

Do you think flights will be affected?

magimedi Mon 22-Dec-14 13:19:16

Kitten I know you well enough to know that you are in no way being a scaremonger & am sure anyone living in that area will be grateful for the heads up.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Dec-14 13:29:04

Pesto, I'm afraid at this point I don't know enough detail. It depends very much on wind direction compared to the alignment of the runway as well as strength.

18yearstooold Mon 22-Dec-14 13:56:45

I hope you are wrong but usually you are spot on (I know you have been before with snow when the TV weather missed it)

I've relatives on the east coast so I'll give them a heads up

Do you think it will come in land as far as York?

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Dec-14 13:58:02

I think York's issue will be with the wind and potentially snow on the back edge of it but that is rather uncertain!

WhatsForYeWontGoByYe Mon 22-Dec-14 14:05:19

How far north, OYBBK? Appreciate it's hard to say, but are we talking Scotland too?

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Dec-14 14:21:32

At the moment I would put the main risk to be Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk Essex and the Netherlands.

SpottyTeacakes Mon 22-Dec-14 16:16:01

.

ouryve Mon 22-Dec-14 16:22:09

Our forecast so far for boxing day (Durham coast) is brass monkeys weather, with wind picking up a little in the evening. Will keep an eye on this thread.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Mon 22-Dec-14 16:23:07

Thanks for this thread Kitten. I will certainly be keeping an eye on it. Im not on the coast, but do plan to travel from York up the A1 on Boxing day night so will be looking to see the weather forecast for the Fri/Sat.

Hope no-one suffers too much. Better to be safe than sorry.

LumpySpacedPrincess Mon 22-Dec-14 17:17:25

I'm in east Kent, could that be affected. We are by a river.

springlamb Mon 22-Dec-14 17:21:40

Fellow East (ish) Kenter here.
What are the tides like over the period? Is the wind direction ripe for a North Sea bulge, seeing as you've mentioned the Netherlands.
I know, great idea, why don't I go and look this shit up for myself instead of bothering the small furry one! Whoosh I'm gone.

Cherrypippin Mon 22-Dec-14 17:22:06

I'm driving from Kent to Gretna on Friday and then Gretna to Aviemore on Saturday so will be watching this very closely.

bettyboop1970 Mon 22-Dec-14 17:25:31

I live in Norfolk near the coast, the wind is already raging. I hope we don't have a repeat of last years tidal surge. I'm going to keep checking local weather. Thanks for the post.

Awks Mon 22-Dec-14 17:29:27

I'm right on the coast in N Yorks. Sandbags to the ready here. It was last week in 2013 when we had the awful, awful high tide where cars were washed into the sea so we are prepped. Though as always my worry is drunk people/tourists who don't realise the power of the sea and who actually wave dodge. I'm not brave enough to be on the lifeboats, though thankful some people are.

ShipwreckedAndMerrilyComatose Mon 22-Dec-14 17:32:40

Useful to know OYBBK. Can I just add my thanks for your threads, you are so helpful and brilliant.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 22-Dec-14 17:35:19

Well done Awks. As I said there is a lot of uncertainty over this, with different models showing different outcomes, but I do feel that given Christmas is in between here and then an early heads up is warranted.

BlackeyedSantaStuckUpAChimney Mon 22-Dec-14 21:12:20

thanks "oh small furry one" (nicked from up thread)

Newbiecrafter Tue 23-Dec-14 08:37:35

The BBC are now talking about this storm

Kitten, thanks so much for the heads up and for all your time and hard work keeping us all informed. thanks wine cake brew

Do you agree with the two scenarios mentioned? Do you have an instinct which one is more likely?

I hope everyone stays safe and well and warm but I'd also love some snow. I'm just outside the surrey London borde and would love to see my Dc's faces seeing snow properly for the first time. Last time it snowed here DS was only 1 and DD was 3, so they don't really remember. Also looking forward to a snowball fight and trying to build a snowman and snowdog. Dc's are 7 and 5.

Many thanks again. I love this time of year and watching the weather threads. This years been good for a while as we've also had Gloriasumd's volcano thread which I've also been following.

Xxx

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 23-Dec-14 08:42:12

This is very tricky. The strong winds look to be a given and some model scenarios are suggesting some rather hefty gales. But the position of the centre of the low is up in the air as so to speak and this is critical in whether there will be a risk of coastal flooding and how severe this will be. ECMWF and UKMO have such completely different paths from GFS that we can't draw any meaningful conclusions. The Bracknell fax charts appear to support GFS.

The potential is still very much there but it is just plain impossible to know which scenario will play out. The models seem to be split between the low diving from NW scotland through SE England (an unusual path!) or travelling somewhere around northern Scotland heading NE. Its bizarre to see two entirely different paths like that!

sorry, that is a lot of waffling. To summarise, the models don't agree as to what will happen.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 23-Dec-14 08:46:02

lol Newbie - I hadnt seen that when I was typing. Good to see that the bbc agree with me fwink

MeanwhileHighAboveTheField Tue 23-Dec-14 08:47:52

Cherypippin - snow is forecast for Aviemore on Saturday (am I right BadKitten?). Are you going skiing?

HoHonutty Tue 23-Dec-14 09:09:19

You're amazing Kitten.

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