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Potential storm Wednesday 10th- Thursday 11th [title edited by HQ]

(223 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Dec-14 08:05:03

For a few days now GFS has been consistently showing a storm heading for northern Scotland mid week next week. It has varied in intensity and location somewhat, but for this time out it has been quite remarkable in its consistency. ECMWF agrees with the genesis of the storm, but has a different location of centre and therefore also strength.

A deep low pressure is forecast to develop somewhere between Iceland and Northern Scotland. at present it is shown as a complex low with a wide influence. For most of us it looks to be a windy and perhaps quite wet day but at present it looks relatively nasty for those in Scotland, with subzero temperatures and perhaps severe gales, leading to the potential for blizzards.

Its still someway off and so I do expect the details to change. If it comes further south as per the current ECMWF then there could also be a snow risk to hilly parts of northern England too.

grumpyoldgitagain Thu 04-Dec-14 08:28:35

Fingers crossed it comes a bit lower down and we all get some lovely snow

grumpyoldgitagain Thu 04-Dec-14 08:29:18

Although I'm not too fussed about the gales

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Dec-14 08:33:33

I think this one can stay off in Iceland, whilst I adore snow, I wouldnt wish for the conditions shown for Scotland. I'd like a nice set of streamers coming from the NE blowing far inland. They can dump loads without being all destructive.

Bunbaker Thu 04-Dec-14 08:33:49

Fingers crossed we don't grumpy. DD has mock GCSEs that week and I would like them to be over and done with before Christmas.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Dec-14 14:54:06

Latest model run gives a pretty wild day still on Wednesday the 10th for Scotland.

Ginfox Thu 04-Dec-14 16:38:56

Thanks for starting the thread, lovely Kitten.

Destructive winds relatively common up here, but could do without the blizzards. Wouldn't mind nice gentle snow, but it's generally too windy and coastal to settle here anyway.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Dec-14 17:38:06

You are welcome Ginfox.
I think its fairly certain the storm will happen, but the uncertainty is the strength and exact areas it will affect. It looks pretty potent tonight.

oricella Thu 04-Dec-14 19:41:39

Thanks, will keep an eye out for that... and Sunday's snow: looks like we're in for a fair bit of weather after the calmness of the last weeks

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Dec-14 21:08:29

snow warning thread

It does look like winter has arrived for you.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 05-Dec-14 07:49:29

Have to say I'm wincing a little when ever I look at the charts for Wednesday.

The UKMO data is down for me at present so I'm relying on ECMWF and GFS.
It looks potentially very windy even by Scotland's usual standards with perhaps blizzards over the northern half of Scotland and further south over higher ground. GFS is being much more gung ho about it than ECMWF. GFS has severe gales, ECMWF much less so so we need to wait until closer to the time for more accuracy.

I'm fairly certain that the met office will be putting out early warnings.

Ginfox Fri 05-Dec-14 08:59:53

OYBBK I think you should develop your own scale of weather severity. Where would "wincing" be on a scale of 1-10? Assuming 1= bored, nothing happening, and 10= hands covering eyes, occasionally peering through fingers.

Would it be fair to say that if you are "wincing", I should probably be crapping myself?


OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 05-Dec-14 09:23:18

Wincing would be a 7/8! Based on the current gfs. ECMWF - it would be a 4.

It's not an unusual storm for Scotland, similar to some of the ones you had last winter, but following such a quiet period it could be a bit of a shock.
Wouldnt be a scottish fisherman though!

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 05-Dec-14 13:06:10

No change in the latest run. GFS still has a rather nasty old storm bringing in severe gales and blizzards for some. I think that there could be coastal flooding in the western isles too.

I'm going to ask mn to change the title to Wednesday/Thursday.

GloriaSmud Fri 05-Dec-14 16:34:06

It's quite interesting watching what the GFS thinks the low will do after the main battering on Wednesday/ Thursday ~ it has it sitting in the North Sea for a bit as if it's deciding what to do next!

Ginfox Fri 05-Dec-14 18:37:34

Thanks for updates OYBBK. Coastal flooding you say?

<wonders if there's time to build an ark>

marne2 Fri 05-Dec-14 18:45:07

I saw a link today on fb that indicates very high tides for the west ( mainly nw) of England, not sure how true or accurate this is? I'm right down south, we rarely get any snow so I'm not holding out much hope in anything reaching us.

OhYouBadBadKitten Fri 05-Dec-14 18:54:03

Marne it does seem likely that the tides will be very high. I think NW coasts, western Irish coasts and western Scotland should be prepared.

MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig Fri 05-Dec-14 23:35:54

Does it look like it might come East?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 06-Dec-14 07:37:23

The tides? I dont think so.

magic seaweed is a good place for surf forecasts which can give you an idea if you couple in the wind direction.

Lowland levels, especially on the west coast shouldnt be too concerned about snow on wednesday. Higher, it is still possible and is probable in the mountains I think (despite the met office not showing any).On thursday colder air digs in and snow seems quite likely perhaps even into northern England.

However it is the wind that is the main issue on Wednesday, gusting to 80mph+ in the west, coupled with potential coastal flooding along the western coast (also western coasts of Ireland and NI) The storm will be long lasting and continue to influence the weather through thursday, with the winds slow to die down..

I think that says everything I meant to! (got up an hour early this morning to get all of the forecasting done, but I'm still a bit woolly!)

Perihelion Sat 06-Dec-14 12:01:34

Windy Wilson ( Scottish weather guru ) has just posted that this storm's low could be 940mb... Hurricane Bawbag in Dec 2011 was 956mb [shoock]

Yelllow wind warning out already for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England.

Perihelion Sat 06-Dec-14 12:02:30

That should be shock ......grin

MsAdorabelleDearheartVonLipwig Sat 06-Dec-14 16:57:51

OYBBK you know you're a star. grin

I'm on the Suffolk coast and we suffered in the tide surges last time. Don't want that back again. A bit of snow though would be lovely!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 06-Dec-14 17:07:39

He's probably right Peri. Good spot on the weather warnings.

ouryve Sat 06-Dec-14 17:26:43

Well the warning area comes down to us and the wind levels are forecast to be bloody Nora on the badkitten scale, here, so goodness knows what it'll be like further north

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