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OYBBk - Early winter predictions

(119 Posts)
JerseySpud Sun 21-Sep-14 13:05:07

What are they looking like this year?

I know its early yet but i like to know x

Apatite1 Mon 22-Sep-14 00:01:12

I'd love to know too. Am very sick of the warm weather now, I've had enough for this year!

digerd Mon 22-Sep-14 08:06:25

We had only 7 degrees this morning so that is more of a normal temp.
The problem has not been the high temp but the humidity and closeness of the air quality that makes it oppressive.

Saturday we even had a chilly breeze in the afternoon.
This morning on dog walk there was none.

JerseySpud Mon 22-Sep-14 08:12:25

Its cooler this morning but its going to get warmer during the day

GloriaSmud Mon 22-Sep-14 13:20:09

Was a chilly morning here ~ down to 3.7C at 5.22am.
Some long range forecasts that cover the next few months from weatheronline and netweather.

GloriaSmud Wed 24-Sep-14 09:35:43

Looking Europe way, the Icehotel in Sweden has had its first snow of the autumn/winter.

JerseySpud Wed 24-Sep-14 10:23:39

Is that good or bad? lol I have no idea if thats early or bad or late or good!

GloriaSmud Wed 24-Sep-14 16:41:55

Lol Jersey ~ I don't know whether it's good or bad either! Over on netweather though they have have threads for discussing Snow and Ice in the northern hemisphere and early winter hopes and chat. They discuss in detail any signs in the atmosphere/snow forecasts and the appearance/non appearance of the white stuff at this time of year. I enjoy reading it and then seeing if they're right when it comes to winter!

digerd Wed 24-Sep-14 20:17:50

6 degrees yesterday morning but 13 this morning. BUT sitting room felt really cold and temp was 18.5 indoors. Even in the afternoon sun it did not rise above 19 confused.

My heating would have come on if I hadn't turned it off.
The NW wind definitely makes it feel colder out.

Titsalinabumsquash Wed 24-Sep-14 20:22:42

I hear we're having an October heat wave hmm. I'll cry if we do. I want WINTER!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 27-Sep-14 09:03:45

The first half of October does look pretty warm in the south. I'm enjoying it, the longer I don't need the heating on the better and my veggies are still growing happily. Winter last year seemed to last forever so I am happy to postphone it.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 27-Sep-14 09:04:57

I'll try and do a summary of various websites later smile I thought I'd already replied to this thread. Whoops!

SpottyTeacakes Sat 27-Sep-14 09:08:14

I'm interested too. We're getting new windows in October so mild is good!

JerseySpud Sat 27-Sep-14 13:10:47

I want proper autumn weather stamps foot

atticusclaw Tue 30-Sep-14 08:19:23

We are off on holiday at half term. We took the same trip four years ago and when we arrived back at the airport (third week in october) there was snow on the car. We seem a very long way from that, it was really warm here yesterday afternoon.

BoreOfWhabylon Tue 30-Sep-14 08:22:12


GloriaSmud Tue 30-Sep-14 11:45:55

According to mountain-forecast, first snow of the autumn/winter is forecast for Ben Nevis this weekend.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 30-Sep-14 13:17:44

looking at the met office 3 month contingency planning thingy here , they are going for a 35% chance of it being warmer than usual and a 10% chance of it being colder than usual.

they are saying that the first part will be more settled than usual and then becoming more unsettled than usual later on. I find this slightly bemusing, looking at the gfs two week forecast which has the first half of Oct pretty unsettled.

They are going for above average rainfall as being most likely, especially Nov December sad

El Nino doesnt seem to be established yet and so will not be influencing us.

JerseySpud Tue 30-Sep-14 19:53:54

Nooooooo sad

atticusclaw Wed 01-Oct-14 18:30:58

Oh. I wanted snow so that I can do my squirrel thing and buy masses of winter supplies.

phonebox Wed 01-Oct-14 18:36:58

I would put money on October being quite mild, with a sudden cold snap in November.

We don't seem to have gradual seasonal change much anymore!

phonebox Wed 01-Oct-14 18:37:27

And I can't wait to break out my winter coat and thick tights! I bet it will be Nov before I do (in the South)

GloriaSmud Mon 13-Oct-14 14:08:35

Latest thoughts on winter from theweatheroutlook.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 29-Oct-14 09:28:36

In light of the Express going bonkers again yesterday (one day, by the law of averages they will quite possibly get it right as long as they stick to the same story every autumn!) I thought it would be a good time to revisit the met office contingency planning page here

To summarise them they say it is more likely to be an above average Nov-Jan than a below average period in terms of temperature. The predicted yet El Nino has yet to form and it looks to be a positive NAO for at least the first half. They give it a 25% chance of falling into the warmest category and a 15% chance of falling into the coldest.

In terms of rainfall the met office predict that it is more likely to be an average or above average winter than a below average winter. They also mention that spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than typical. They give it falling into the wettest category as 25% and driest as 15%

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 29-Oct-14 09:37:12

I ought to point out that last winter didnt fall into the met office highest probability categories. IIRC correctly they were a drier and slightly colder than average winter. oops! Will be good when they get their super new super computer up and going!

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