Potential for severe storms tomorrow.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Apologies for a bit of a replica thread but I wanted to highlight the issue clearly.

Many people will have seen the lurid headlines in the express. They are wildly over egging the situation but nevertheless there is a possibility that some severe storms will initiate tomorrow.

Main risks if such storms do develop are large hail, cloud-ground lightning, severe straightline winds and potentially a small chance of tornadoes developing.

Whilst many places in southern central through to northern central England are at risk of general thunderstorms it does at the moment - and this may well change - look like areas around Cambridgshire, Bedfordshire, through to Lincolnshire and south Yorkshire may see more severe storms.

Can I suggest to you that if thunderstorms do develop bear in mind that they may become severe and keep in mind that you may need to seek shelter. Please also do, if it is absolutely safe only, grab photos of any hail stones or damage as these are invaluable to TORROs research.

Of course nothing may happen other than some rumbles of thunder. Forecasting is not an exact science and thunderstorms are especially complex to forecast, however it is worth knowing about the potential for development.

[VivaLeBeaver]

I'm excited. I love a good storm. Obviously as long as its not severe enough for anyone to get hurt.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Me too :)

Latest GFS has shifted the heaviest rain westwards somewhat but I don't feel that has changed the storm forecast particularly.

[Youdontneedacriminallawyer]

Tell me about it. I'm at an all day, outside, Brownie event tomorrow

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Reconsidering that a little, the severe storm emphasis may have shifted westwards. It is one model run though, so I will update as soon as the next one is out later afternoon.

[AlpacaLypse]

Oh. So the Steam Fair I'm thinking about going to in Wiltshire, the one where one parks on a grassy field, might not be too good a plan?

[BigArea]

I'm going to a festival tomorrow just outside Bristol - will be donning wellies etc but please tell me I won't be swept away or struck by lightening?!?!

[BigArea]

Oh god, cross posted - not liking the sound of 'shifted westwards'

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Youdont, I hope that there has been suitable shelter identified and there are contingency plans.

[Youdontneedacriminallawyer]

My Brownie do is in Wiltshire too AlpacaLypse.

I keep repeating that "there is no such thing as inappropriate weather, only inappropriate clothing", but I'm not convincing myself.

[Youdontneedacriminallawyer]

Bad kitten - I have asked that very question, and am still waiting for an answer.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ok. If it were me, I wouldn't be cancelling anything unless it's purely on the grounds that you are likely to get very wet. Thunderstorms are very hit or miss and most people won't see them even in a bad outbreak, which there is no guarantee this will be. However, I would be thinking 'shelter'. I would also be checking out the radar and latest forecasts before setting out.

Tomorrow I intend to do an updated forecast at around 8:15. However, remember that I'm not professional and that under no account whatsoever should people base safety decisions on what I say. Even the professionals get it wrong sometimes! The met office is the best place to check out the latest warnings here and as you can see they still don't know where the worst of the heavy rain will be.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well done Youdont :)

[ChubbyKitty]

Ooh I'm in all day tomorrow as got a decorator in, so I can perch in the bay window to get photos! Where do I send them to? I'll feel so helpful

Unless I hear thunder. Then I'll be under the bed.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

TORRO reporting page for damage, funnel cloud/tornado sightings or large hail :)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Worth noting that we may get some storms moving in late evening today.

[Hakluyt]

Looks as if we're going to miss it here in Kent. You lot have all the fun!

[Meglet]

Great. I have to drive to Reading tomorrow morning for an OU lecture.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

hah Hakluyt! I remember a time when Kent got all of the french storm imports and wouldnt share any with the rest of us. It's our turn now (says she who will probably also not see anything and will read reports with envy).

Allow plenty of time meglet, the main driving risk will be very intense downpours if you end up under a storm.

[Myfanwyprice]

It's ds's birthday party tomorrow - outside!

I have warned the parents that we'll be outside whatever the weather, so to make sure they've got waterproof jackets, but god knows what we're going to do if it's torrential. . .

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

argh myfanwy. I hope you miss the worst of it!

[MrsBungle]

I'm gutted! It's our village family fun day tomorrow! It's lovely here today! We are in Nottinghamshire.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ESTOFEX have southern england in a level 1 forecast. Note this only goes to 7am tomorrow rather than covering the full expected storm potential period.

"A level 1 was issued for W France and S England for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation, large hail and tornadoes."

Will be interesting to see what it says when they produce a forecast for tomorrow itself.

[Myfanwyprice]

Me too badkitten - I'm busily printing colouring pages, I'm sure 8 year old boys love colouring - don't they!!!??

We've got a few party games lined up if they do have to be indoors, but really hoping it doesn't come to that

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Remember that not everyone will see the downpours and even fewer any big storms and the rain isnt set to last all day, so it isnt necc rain stops play all day.

Tomorrow evening once the rain and storms clear through should be cool and pleasant in southern england and the midlands.

[ilovemonstersInc]

Marking place