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BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

(571 Posts)
OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 10:57:36

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 08-Dec-13 13:44:26

Boo I hate rain!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 13:47:35

It wouldn't be very Christmasy would it? Really hope that chart doesn't come off, there would be a lot of damage -again.

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 08-Dec-13 13:49:43

I would prefer it to snow at Christmas to be honest. We're in the sticks with steep narrow hills on all exits! Rain is miserable though. Bright and cold for me please smile

Perihelion Sun 08-Dec-13 15:23:17

Nooooooo! Am actually lookng forward to Xmas for once, as have chucked dull relative duty and am gong to a pals house for relaxed fun. This requires travel and crossing the Forth Bridge. Happy to get snowed/stormed in when we get there, but not before! Although on the very unscientific basis of my memory, interesting weather usually starts on Christmas day evening. Have drven home more than a few times, with the snow starting. Also remember Boxing day 1998, where the neighbour's wndows got blown in. Hogmanay is also quite popular for wind in Edinburgh.......

Currently a totally unseasonable 12C.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 15:36:31

oh how fickle gfs is! The 06Z model run shows a very benign Christmas eve! Maybe a bit of frost around.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 19:33:55

The storm is back again in the latest run but with the centre to the north of Scotland rather than over it bringing in stormy but mild conditions.

Perihelion Sun 08-Dec-13 21:51:39

That's not necessarily cheering me up Kitten, wasn't this week's storm centre just to the North of Scotland too? If you ignore Shetland...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 23:06:31

It's not terribly reassuring, though I've not looked at it in detail. I suspect it will be different tomorrow.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 08:35:07

Christmas day is almost in our reach on GFS with the model taking us up to midnight on Christmas Eve.

This time the model shows a nice little high pressure over us - giving a cold dry Christmas eve and some hints of rain or snow moving in on Christmas day.

Will update after lunch to see what happens next!

TwentiethCenturyGirl Mon 09-Dec-13 08:46:26

Oh, fingers crossed for some Christmassy weather. This mild grey cloud is so unfestive. I want cold frosty mornings and blue skies please!

GloriaSmud Mon 09-Dec-13 10:40:49

'Tis not right or festive this weather.
But for those that are missing cold and snow, Lapland is looking snowy (click on a blue camera to see a different place) this morning, with temepratures in some places down to -39C overnight fshock

DameDeepRedBetty Mon 09-Dec-13 10:46:31

Ooooo goody goody goody a BadKitten weather page! <placemarks for future reference>

TweenageAngst Mon 09-Dec-13 10:52:52

How about Marrakesh kitten? We are there at Christmas

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 12:15:45

Marrakesh! I'll have to look up where it is on a map first blush

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 12:18:03

The gfs I look at doesnt reach that far south. The ECMWF model does - give me a prod in 5 days.

purplepippininapeartree Mon 09-Dec-13 14:08:33

We are in Aberdeenshire for christmas, is it looking like we may get some snow ? I'm in the south east and it's so mild haven't even got the hats and gloves out yet.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 14:27:36

It might be better if I answer specific questions next week as GFS is swinging wildly between high pressure in charge and monster storm. In the latest model run monster storm wins!

TweenageAngst Mon 09-Dec-13 18:39:44

OK will do. As long as it avoids the monster storm grin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 18:42:34

Monster storm is a boxing day storm this model run.

Its going to be a long 2 weeks this! fgrin

oricella Mon 09-Dec-13 18:44:30

Really can't do with another storm up here; lots of beautiful old trees come down, leaving the ones standing even more vulnerable. On the plus side, a couple of afternoons out with the chain saw and we're a long way forward on next winter's wood supply!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 18:45:30

I don't need another storm either - I've run out of places to put logs!

oricella Mon 09-Dec-13 18:50:40

grin - I'm sure we could find some space if we had to, but overall I prefer the trees standing

IamInvisible Mon 09-Dec-13 18:53:24

Oh, please don't let it snow!

Perihelion Mon 09-Dec-13 22:36:12

grin, see as I unscientifically noted, interesting weather starts xmas day evening.....fwink

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