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Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

954 replies

OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 23/10/2013 14:10

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff Wink

I'll update as things become clearer.

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SnakeyMcBadass · 23/10/2013 14:33

Gah. I hate strong winds. Freaks me right out. How far north might it go, do you think? I'm south Derbyshire.

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SuperiorCat · 23/10/2013 14:39

Thanks for the warning kitten, time to put away the garden furniture and secure the trampoline

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 23/10/2013 15:02

Snakey, utterly impossible to know at the moment I'm afraid, the models are too divergent. As soon as they start to converge on a solution I'll update :)

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SnakeyMcBadass · 23/10/2013 15:47

Thanks Kitten/Witch

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HesterShaw · 23/10/2013 15:51

Oh hurray a storm for half term. Yes I've been looking ar the possibly of 70mph gusts for Cornwall.

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Bilpbip · 23/10/2013 15:58

DS is going on the ferry to Ireland on Monday 28th... oh dear Sad

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leesmum · 23/10/2013 16:54

Thanks for keeping everyone updated Kitten

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 23/10/2013 17:09

dh is supposed to be flying out then. oh dear here too!
Still it is early days, so plenty may change yet!

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LineRunner · 23/10/2013 17:11

Bugger.

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SpookyTeacakes · 23/10/2013 18:09

Ooo marking my place for this. We've got a very dodgy fence which probably won't survive Hmm

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29chapel · 23/10/2013 18:12

us too spooky and we are flying out on Monday... think DH will spend the w/e fixing the fence - he'll be delighted.

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 23/10/2013 19:33

Latest gfs takes the winds through France instead. There is about as much uncertainty as there possibly can be with this potential little nasty.

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digerd · 24/10/2013 06:20

Will the winds be westerly, southerly or SW?

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KenDoddsDadsDog · 24/10/2013 06:23

Oh dear I'm flying back from holiday on Monday Sad

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digerd · 24/10/2013 06:27

Many trees in our area have been dropping their leaves for the last 2 weeks. I assume it was the very dry hot summer, or an omen of things coming early?
We normally have our Autumn Colour display after 29th October - or used to- and some years didn't fall until well into NovemberHmm

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saintlyjimjams · 24/10/2013 06:58

Marks place. We're on a hill facing the sea so feel the storms!

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mankyscotslass · 24/10/2013 07:07

Carol on Breakfast has just mentioned the potential for Monday - she said it could be "gales, severe gales, or the potential to be something more than that"

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Meglet · 24/10/2013 07:07

This could be the death knell for a couple of my fence panels.

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 24/10/2013 07:38

3 main models look very different!!

GFS has a wind storm tracking over England giving severe gales across southern England.

UKMO has a fairly deep large low to the north of the UK giving generalised strong winds.

ECMWF gives a less deep solution, but I can't quite work out the track.

So it's all still in the air (so to speak)

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 24/10/2013 07:40

Manky. Perfect summary.

One option though is instead of a discrete low forming a squall line develops giving brief severe gusts with erm the potential for more tornadoes.

Digerd, impossible to give the direction of the wind until we know the track of any storm that develops.

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TheDoctrineOfAnyFucker · 24/10/2013 07:40
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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 24/10/2013 07:45

The Bracknell fax chart takes the storm winds through France.

NAVGEM takes a less strong storm to the north of the UK.

Aaargh!!

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todaysdate · 24/10/2013 07:48

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

capercaillie · 24/10/2013 07:50

Watching with interest...we'll be in Wales

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OhYouWickedWickedWitch · 24/10/2013 07:58

Rotten timing todaysdate. Suggest everything is securely boxed!

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