Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.(382 Posts)
Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)
NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.
GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.
UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!
ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)
similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.
So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.
Move to Manchester, where we have a very effective snow shield.
We are lambing at the minute and this weather has made it a nightmare.The fields are too waterlogged and cold to put the older lambs out in,so every barn is utilized as huge pens to keep them from dying of exposure.Even if it warms up,we can't physically get them onto the fields because the gateways are full of 3ft deep ruts full of water and we can't get any vehicles through them.
My poor ponies have no grass at all and are up to their hocks in freezing muddy water,I can't bring them in as there is no where for them to go,everywhere is full of sheep.My day job is as a gardener and I am losing money every day there is snow on the ground as I can't work. I'm well and truly fed up with the weather,it is just so relentlessly bad and it doesn't look as though there is any end in sight.
A bit far off but we are going to the Isle of Wight on 12th April and staying in a beach hut I hope things improve by then!
mirage . I know almost nothing about farming, when should the lambs have been outside? From the start of March or sometime around then?
Do you have any idea what bank holiday Monday will be like in the Evesham area?
My sil is getting married with a marquee on their farm and we are supposed to be camping Or should we be booking a taxi to the nearest hotel?
Mirage, that sounds utterly hideous I'm so sorry that its so bad.
Whojam, my best guess at the moment is cold and wet, but it might be cold and white.
Either way wellies and a taxi are in order I think, I love camping and there's no way in a billion years I'd camp next weekend!
OYBBK PLEASE don't sod off to
bloody Facebook Too many good posters are being lost to it <stomps feet>
Oh, we made discussion of the day. I so wish I had some happy stuff to say to cheer the thread up. But if we all hang around here long enough spring is bound to win through
Mirage - hope it clears a bit for you soon .
I am really LIVID about the dead weather now - despite living in a city, having no dc or even sheep.
My ancient and barmy parents are insisting on a 200 mile drive on Good Friday, despite the fact that Dad's gout renders him unable to stand, I can't take any exercise at all, resulting no doubt in medical nastiness, and I am fed up of being stuck apparently barely an inch under a concrete sky.
And I was really looking forward to spring and Easter, not having a lot to look forward to at the moment. Poetic understatement, that.
For the ref of MNetters UK-wide, pls avoid the A303 on Good Friday. Dad has no working feet and a fast Alfa Romeo.
I'm a bit weird - I actually love this weather
Corygal - which direction please? We shall be making use of the A303 all the way from Mere to the M3 going East on Good Friday.
They are going from London to Hindon. Watch out for two grey heads in animated discussion in a red car doing min 100 mph.
Thank you,for the sympathy,I'm trying to give myself a kick up the arse and try and look on the bright side,at least I'm not out in the lambing shed at the minute,I don't do nights.I dread to think how cold it is down there.
Meglet we always start lambing relatively late,beginning of March,because theoretically,it is warmer and you have less mortality/fewer feed costs.This year there is less grass now than there was in January and there is no goodness in it,the cold has meant that has hardly grown,so we are feeding hay and hard feed to make up for that.
There is one funny thing we've noticed,When all the lambs in the shed get excited,they run around and around,all in the same direction,like a lamb vortex.I'll have to try and film it,they are quite amusing.
Oh how sweet!
Footage from Arran is horrific!
I am really glad that DD goes to school about 2 minutes walk away. We had to catch a bus today, and even waiting 5 minutes for the bus had DD2s blanket flying off in wind that made it hard to talk, my hands completely numb (which was interesting when I needed to get bus fare out...) and both DDs crying :-(
I think it will be a very home based week...
I've even got used to snow and floods recently (I've just moved from the North East, which has been crazy for the last couple of years) but it is this biting cold and strong wind that is awful.
The wind is the real cruelty in this isn't it.
Well I'm afraid I can't bring much in the way of good cheer. Remaining very cold this week, snow showers on and off in northern England. Rather a question mark over Friday still, but the question has changed more now to how much snow and where. GFS is a lot less bullish about bringing in snow on this run. The good news is that this model run is also less bullish about it being quite so wet, so whilst precip is on the cards for the time being flooding isn't quite such a threat.
ECMWF brings us one day of slightly more spring like temperatures early next week before all models put us back into the freezer.
Off to Centre Parcs nr Suffolk next week,so hope it's not too bad. I dont fancy cycling in snow.
10y dd is up in Aberdeen at the moment so hope all is ok up there and she and my mum have no problems with the trains on Thursday.
The only benefit of being ill at the moment is I haven't ad to go out in this wether!
Any news noa week after Easter in the south west? We decided Cornwall rather than the canaries for our family holiday ...
Just see some photos of my friend's house in ne wales.her car is snowed in half way up its windows and the mile long track from her property is just as deep. She tells me there are two abandoned snow ploughs on it. They have managed so far, even without electricity for thirty hours, but will have to start to eat their chickens tomorrow if there is no sign of rescue. (They generally eat the boys, but are driven to extreme circumstances )
Sun did try to peep out but then gave up. 0 degrees in the night. Hope it doesn't snow for little dog's walk in an hour and then at 3pm.
I've been enjoying myself buying eskimo outfits in the sales. < smile>
Ah, the BadBadKitten Weather thread! I'm planning to drive from East Anglia to Central Scotland on the Easter weekend - looking at this treasd, I should be packing the snow shovel and rocksalt. Any chance at all that it might not be a complete disaster?
On a side note, we were driving into town on Saturday and DH started whistling 'It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...'
mirage I would love to see a lamb vortex!
It's me and DD's day off work / nursery today and for once we're staying at home, inbetween school runs. Cabin fever is preferable to wind chill and endless layers of cold. (Hampshire).
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