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Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:31:53


Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 19:23:36

glad you made it back ok zombie smile

takeaway2 Sat 23-Mar-13 19:35:49

Hi kitten
I've always read your postings with great interest but never commented as was never ever travelling beyond the immediate area... Until this week and the next couple of weeks!!

I'm in Brussels tomorrow using the euro Chunnel. Hopefully it'll all go well! I return midweek.

But then after Easter, we will need to travel up to Manchester (we are in the se) on Thursday... I realise that its a way away but I'm panicking now. Other than having to change wedding outfits to non-spring ones... I will also need to travel 6 hours or more... Help! Should we make alternative plans??
Thanks a lot.

mankyscotslass Sat 23-Mar-13 19:36:06

Just very light snow flurries on and off all day, nothing lying here at all!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 20:03:36

Takeaway, I wouldn't make any changes yet, it's way too early and the models diverge at the end of this week so there's no confidence at all in the following week.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 20:05:13

Manky, manchesters snow shield is truly amazing. How was your first day?

edam Sat 23-Mar-13 20:12:40

OYBK, may I ask, what do you think North Norfolk will be like over Easter? I'm beginning to regret booking a caravan...

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sat 23-Mar-13 20:19:56

You are addictive kitten!!

41notTrendy Sat 23-Mar-13 20:24:18

Thank you OYBBK. I see what you mean. I'll bookmark that one!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 20:28:44

Edam, at the moemnts the models show either cold and at times wet or cold and snowy.
I'd certainly be packing hot water bottles and hot chocolate.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 20:29:49

Shipwrecked blush I reckon anything to do with the weather is addictive

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sat 23-Mar-13 20:32:44

I'm planning a birthday trip for my son to legoland on the second April and then a holiday to Liverpool from Sussex.

I'll be watching this thread with hope interest...

digerd Sat 23-Mar-13 20:37:08

Snowed all morning but turned to sleet and melted except on grass.
PM Snowed again even heavier and settled again - semi blizzarding.
Just looked now and driveway has melted mostly again, but 0 degrees already, and anticipating/dreading it being icy early morning at least.

blibblibs Sat 23-Mar-13 20:41:23

We're heading down to Poole on Monday from the West Mindlands - any advice?
5 days in a caravan - snowsuits or will we get away with just waterproofs?
Already have tickets for Peppa pig world, any idea which day might be best?

edam Sat 23-Mar-13 21:04:57

Thanks OYBK - just my luck!

takeaway2 Sat 23-Mar-13 21:05:07

Thank you kitten for replying! smile Thing is, we need to be at the wedding. Hotel booked, kids are flower girl and page boy. All sorted. Just need to get there!!!! At the moment I'm looking for merino wool tights to wear with the dress. Mad.

schilke Sat 23-Mar-13 21:05:58

Really wish I hadn't bothered booking an after Easter holiday in this country! I only did it because we can't go away between April & September due to dh working. I now have visions of us being trapped in a house in miserable weather and everyone moaning....

mankyscotslass Sat 23-Mar-13 21:26:08

OYBBK, it was ok thanks!

I knew that the snow forecast was too good to be true. sad

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 21:29:36

Blibb, I don't think you will need either until the end of the week, then you might need waterproofs, but you might squeak through without. You will need warm and wind proof clothing and hot water bottles. Absolutely nothing to choose between the days so I'd go for tues or weds as confidence in the forecast will be higher closer to the beginning of te week.

D0G Sat 23-Mar-13 21:33:20

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 22:49:05

Re the gad, I'll ask my brother tomorrow if he knows anything. He's relatively high up in C e n t r i c a (don't want this to come up on any searches!) so generally knows more than goes out to news.

Hope there's not too much more rain in the west country. We're a bit damp and sodden here, and the farmers are having a terrible time.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 23:00:34

Jus, that would be really interesting. Most measured report I've read is from reuters

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 23:01:02

Farming must be horrific at the moment.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 23:05:59

I did read that stocks reached this level last time in march 2010 and restrictions were applied to big businesses (maybe gas powered stations??? ) but this winter is not relinquishing so far, though it will, and some of the coal fired stations that would take up the slack have been closed or will close by the end of the month.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 23:33:07

Yep, farming has been horrendous for a long time due to things like supermarkets paying farmers so little, feed costs rising out of proportion to what an animal is worth at sale and so on. The weather of the last few years has really pushed farms to the edge. We a friend who farms cattle and his grain harvest (for feed) has been badly affected the last couple of years at least. Many farmers are turning at least some of their fields into campsites - that's been happening for a long time for all sorts of reasons, but it all comes down to the fact that farming has not been lucrative for many years. Personally, I find it scandalous and a bit frightening that we couldn't feed ourselves if we had to.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 23:37:33

I read today that big businesses will be restricted in their power use this week, but as the cold weather is set to continue, restrictions will have to be placed on domestic customers too. We are using too much power to keep ourselves warm.

I think we will have to increase nuclear power. We are due to have massive problems with electricity. I understand there won't be enough by 2015 unless something drastic is done and wind power and wave power and solar are not enough to make up the shortfall. Never will be. I may have got that wrong, but will check tomorrow.

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