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Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:31:53


Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 23:48:17

That's exactly how I understand it too Jux, unfortunately those that organise our power supply have left it rather late, new power stations aren't going to happen from scratch in just two years.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 23:48:53

Agree with you about farming too. We are becoming far too vulnerable as a nation.

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 07:44:32

I agree with this too. Our dependency on other countries is too scary

mankyscotslass Sun 24-Mar-13 07:51:06

Woke this morning to...not a flake. Nothing lying or falling!

blibblibs Sun 24-Mar-13 08:01:17

OYBBK Thank you. Woken up here to more snow still falling but I will be brave and leave the snowsuits at home!

GloriaSmud Sun 24-Mar-13 08:06:56

Have made it to Porthmadog! Thankyou to oybbk for advising us to delay the journey by a day - main roads are clear but there are 20-30cms snow on side roads. There are quite a few abandoned cars that won't be going anywhere for a few days and 1 or 2 tree branches down. Have taken a few pictures so hope to put those on profile when I get back next weekend.
Thanks once again, oybbk!

Perihelion Sun 24-Mar-13 08:15:12

manky still nothing here in Edinburgh either.......
Really can't get my head round nuclear being the energy solution after having watched Into Eternity/Nuclear Eternity documentary about Finland building a waste repository. IMO no more nuclear power stations should be built until a long term solution for waste storage is available.

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 08:41:38

Started snowing heavily about 8am, now looks more like sleet, but not stopping. -1 last night.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 09:40:46

Yay Gloria smile I'm so glad that it worked well for you and that you got there safely smile

I'm conscious that I've dragged this thread rather off topic and that.there are lots of us with strong opinions on this, with the risk that the thread might go a bit pear shaped grin shall we try and keep this thread to the immediate issues and we could talk about the mid and longer term in another thread?

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 09:43:39

Fortunately our temp has only just dipped to below zero thanks to cloud cover so it hasn't had chance to really freeze. Take care those of you further north.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 10:05:07

What a flip by our models smile both GFS and ECMWF bring in spring like temperatures at some point over the Easter weekend. The transition could be a messy snow/rain one followed by lots of rain and unfortunately the very really risk of flooding for many, especially where run off from hills can be a problem. GFS has it moving in very slowly from the south.

Based on these models I recommend packing waterproofs, wellies and perhaps a canoe for any Easter hols planned.

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 10:24:05

Does this mean we might not get any more snow?

<worries about getting excited for no reason>

Id be interested in a mid to long term thread.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 10:35:05

Perhaps lilleth. I hope so! Though some may prefer it to the flooding that looks likely to happen under today's models.

Will start a thread on mid/long term power generation in the science topic. (I think that's the most suitable area?)

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 10:55:14

Thread to discuss Britains energy crisis here

eminemmerdale Sun 24-Mar-13 10:58:01

didn't cycle in the end - car and taxi grin bloody good job for two reasons - a lot of champagne imbibed blush and it snowed like mad all evening and overnight.

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 11:01:07

Ok, I cannot stress enough the need for it to be reasonable in Winsor on 2nd April!!!!!!!!!

ajandjjmum Sun 24-Mar-13 11:36:54

And in the Midlands on the 6th Shipwrecked.

Maybe kitten you could start a thread giving our requests, so that those in charge can make things happen accordingly!!! grin

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 11:46:08

Exactly! Weather made to order....

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 12:28:17

Just been to wheely bin and lid is well and truly iced stuck and couldn't open it . It's only -1?

MegGriffin Sun 24-Mar-13 13:03:27

BBC Sussex weather lady just mentioned a possible snow event for the bank holiday weekend.

HotCrossNaanAndRessurectiOn Sun 24-Mar-13 13:15:30

West coast Cumbria / North Lancashire; No snow here, just bitingly cold. The mountains are covered though.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 13:34:03

We had an interesting debate yesterday in the car about what would happen if we put the government in charge of the weather.

We reckoned that it would be grey all week to keep the workers working with rain at night of rather farmers. Weekends would be nice as obviously would bank holidays. Close to the election we'd have loads of fab weather (and the party in opposition would be promising sun forever more) wed only be allowed snow for a few hours on Christmas Day as it costs the economy far too much.
The SE would get far more than their fair share of sunshine under the Tories and the north would always be gloomy. That would be reversed under Labour. The Greens would make it perpetually windy for the wind farm areas. Then the Trade Unions would get involved........

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 13:36:06

meg, that would be with regards to the potential transition point between the cold we have now and the warmer weather coming in. lots of moisture bumping into cold air can give rather unpredictable results as I intimated earlier in the forecast I gave today.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sun 24-Mar-13 13:37:03

Digerd, it's the same here, roads which have high thermal mass are not frozen over, but other surfaces like bins and the guinea pigs cage are iced over.

Jux Sun 24-Mar-13 13:58:05

Sorry for hijack again. Don't worry about gas; Belgium pipeline very small fault, almost certainly fixed by now. Tankers take a while and then a while to unload but hike in gas price means Continent more likely to want to sell to us via various pipelines.

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