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Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:31:53


Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

hellhasnofurylikeahungrywoman Sat 23-Mar-13 17:34:54

Such lovely weather for the time of year dontcha think? Thank you OYBBK

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:36:52

Its splendid! I want to do my gardening!!! <regards veggies patch under snow>

At least the slugs will drown.

eminemmerdale Sat 23-Mar-13 17:40:02

sitting here in Cambridge debating how to get to the party we should be going to tonight! DH says cycle shock it's not ever so thick snow but hasn't stopped all day - I say car and walk back.. (it's about 2 miles through town)

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 17:41:25

Happy to see that snow is unlikely to be here for the start of the week as I have an exam to drive to 45 mins down the A1. Not happy so see that Spring isn't coming any time soon. I want to get back into running again ASAP, but as Ive been waiting for better weather, I might be waiting a while yet sad

Tortington Sat 23-Mar-13 17:41:35

i say walk there - taxi back and get pissed - surely this is a contender eminennerdale?

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 17:42:37

On another note, just been out with the dog. Was walking through the village green. At some parts you could just see the tops of grass poking through, but at some places the snow was nearly up to my knees.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:46:37

even here, where the wind hasnt been a particular factor and we didnt actually get that much the variation in snow depth is quite notable from none, to a few cm to flood depending on the surface. Its a bit fascinating!

Hope you were suitably dressed for knee deep snow lilleth!

rainbowsprite1 Sat 23-Mar-13 17:51:30

Where I am, the IOM, it has been so varied. Parts of the island have no snow, other parts have drifts so big that people cant open the doors of their houses & one village is completely cut off. OYBBK what causes such variations over even small distances??

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:51:37

I forgot my usual disclaimer! I'm not a professional, just an amateur, so please dont make any important decisions based on what I say. The met office are the ones I'd choose for decisions where it really counts.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 17:55:02

rainbowsprite, I'm not entirely sure of the geography of the Isle of Man. Has it been wet where theres no snow? Microclimates have a big role to play in this kind of weather where temperatures are really borderline for rain/snow. They can be affected by hills, soil type, bodies of water. I'd love to see a map of snow on the island and then I might be able to answer it better.

rainbowsprite1 Sat 23-Mar-13 17:57:43

OYBBK it is tea time for the kids but I'll try and dig out a map later. Thanks for your prompt response.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 18:05:24

that would be cool, thank you smile

Hadnt noticed that was the time shock fish and chips tonight!!!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 18:29:48

As a bit of an aside, as it is being affected by the continuing cold weather, if you are interested in the gas storage issue, you can keep an eye on it: margins notice report. Click on the report and scroll to the last graph, which I believe shows the amount of gas stored currently. I'm hoping that they can import more than they appear to be doing currently to top up the stored levels. If I've misunderstood the graph please shout up!

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 18:40:07

So is the country running out of gas due to the weather then? Im not going to download it as I dont want to use up any of my download limit. Hope they get more gas for people.

ajandjjmum Sat 23-Mar-13 18:45:29

You once saved Christmas for my family (that is NO joke), and I now need you to rescue us again!
DS was supposed to be having his 21st party in a marquee today - thank goodness we postponed (as he decided to bugger off on holiday!). It's now planned for the 6th - in the Midlands. I'm feeling the need for valium coming on!! grin I can live with cold, even rain, but 8" of snow on the ground would be a problem. Should I be looked at standby venues?!!!!
Any thoughts?

eminemmerdale Sat 23-Mar-13 18:46:47

we've decided bikes grin it has stopped snowing and at our ages, we won;t be there long anyway...!

travellingwilbury Sat 23-Mar-13 18:53:11

Thanks kitten , I will be interested to see what Easter brings .

Please let spring happen soon .

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 18:53:55

dh and I have been pouring over the graphs. They say a lot about our current situation confused we hope that we are misinterpreting them.

Littlemissexpecting Sat 23-Mar-13 18:55:25

OYBBK thank you.
I have family travelling from scotland to midlands for Easter its not looking promising. Don't fancy driving around east Anglia for work next week either!
Welcome to Spring everyone!!

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 19:02:54

lilleth, in a nutshell, it looks concerning and if we are understanding them correctly we figure that they either will have to:

a) run our stocks into the ground and hope that things improve before we are stuffed
b)magic up some more gas from goodness knows where
c)start rationing

We arent sure whether it is just our weather that is a factor, I've read of some supply issues (need to do more reading to consolidate understanding) and parts of europe have had a very cold winter.

This isnt either of our fields and I'm hoping someone will come along and tell me to stop talking bollocks.

aj, I think I would, although gfs for that day has the precip along the south and it looks too warm to snow, it still looks cold and a bit chancey.

41notTrendy Sat 23-Mar-13 19:13:48

OYBBK, how far in advance do you think it's possible to predict weather, with reasonable accuracy?
For instance, I've read what you've said about one model for Easter and beyond, and had a look on Metcheck which seem to say rain in the week after Easter weekend. We're going to the Lakes so I'm wondering whether to ditch packing outdoor stuff and take games and DVDs!

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 19:14:47

I hope they get something sorted soon and that the gas lasts.

Im also hoping that Met office is correct with forecasts. Every forecast Ive looked at says snow all week, apart from the Met Office which looks dry. Ive had enough of this now. I just want spring <stamps foot in a huff>

IamtheZombie Sat 23-Mar-13 19:15:31

Kitten, Zombie is safely home from Whitby. It was a much slower journey back although for the most part the main roads were clear. She ran into some heavy persistent snow between Telford and Shrewsbury and has returned to 6 inches of snow in South Shropshire.

It was actually an interesting journey. Absolutey nothing from Whitby until York and then that was just a dusting. From then it varied between several inches to not much more than a dusting and back again. It was really only from around Burton on Trent that it became more consistent.

OhYouBadBadKitten Sat 23-Mar-13 19:23:22

41, it really depends, today in the south, not very accurately at all. I'd say though in general 3-5 days is good, after that it is general trends. One way to look at how accurate the models might be is to look at the ensembles the closer the lines are together, the more confident you can be.

metcheck uses the gfs model (without any human interpretation added in to the forecast)

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