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Need to keep an eye on the coming weekends weather (5th on)

(46 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 08:18:39

Mn lost my very detailed post. sad and now I'm short of time.

Look at the 120 hr Bracknell chart which shows ex-hurricane Nadine coming our way at the end of the week.

Now Nadine has been a really pesky hurricane. Very long lived. At one point she was downgraded and then reinvigorated to reform into a hurricane. She then strengthened when forecasts were for her to grow weaker. You can see her history Here

Now there's no guarantee that she will hit our shores and if she does the impact will depend on any other weather systems and troughs that she interacts with. she would be an extra-tropical low by that time.

IF she hits our shores AND the conditions are right, then it could be quite a stormy affair. STay tuned....

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 22:09:53

Crickey!!!

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:39:09

We have an enormous old oak tree which lost a huge spire in the summer storms at vast expense we had to have it properly pollarded - the really scary bit was it looked fine just after all the wind as I went specifically to check it as it's above the climbing frame.
3 days later with not a breath of wind it came crashing halfway down the tree, I still get a "what if" moment every now and again.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 21:15:12

Oh dear pepper! I remember all the winds we had last winter, nothing awful but constant blowiness - watching our fence panels flap back and forth with plants to worry about and neighbours stressing was not fun!

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:12:17

and a twitch on my posting finger clearly!

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:11:32

I'm not coastal but I have 3 fence panels only held up by willpower...

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:11:29

I'm not coastal but I have 3 fence panels only held up by willpower...

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 21:09:15

Tether those trampolines on the coast grin

SuePurblybilt Thu 04-Oct-12 20:37:58

<hunkers down>

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 20:22:06

bump to catch the evening crowd.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 18:18:09

Just had a look at the wind gusts that met office are forecasting along the south in the early hours. looks like widespread gusts along southern coast of 60mph, perhaps higher. IOW could get some nasty stuff too. Even quite far inland could get 40-50mph. Which is not really out of the ordinary, but even ordinary gales can cause disruption.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 17:54:26

BYE BYE NADINE as NOAA put it! They reckon it was the second longest lasting tropical atlantic storm.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 14:20:57

So we have had Spawn 1 of Nadine last week, Spawn 2 coming up tonight/tomorrow/Sat and then ex-nadine herself (all absorbed into a larger low) on Sun/Monday.
Shes been a right royal pain!

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 14:18:33

The rain at the end of the weekend looks really nasty for the SW, coming after heavy rain tonight/tomorrow, I think it could cause some issues with around 80mm of rain in that second bout.

SuePurblybilt Thu 04-Oct-12 14:10:55

Oh I've found the breakdown, don't worry. Looks much of a muchness.

SuePurblybilt Thu 04-Oct-12 14:09:40

What sort of time are we talking do you think, for the Devons? I have to go exploring (trying to find a very rural riding school) either at 4.30 today or tomorrow. Which is the least likely to be 'orrible do you think?

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 14:03:51

warnings are changed, much smaller area than at first, which tallies well with the overall rainfall figures not looking as bad as they did but note the new warnings for Sun/Mon

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 07:57:39

suePurb, that's just a little taster ahead of tonight grin

Just looked at the radar. Northern France are really copping it.

Northernlurker Thu 04-Oct-12 07:57:35

We had quite heavy rain here in York last night. Garden looks v soggy but lovely morning today.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 07:56:27

As one storm dies, so another is born. Goodbye Nadine, hello Oscar

SuePurblybilt Thu 04-Oct-12 07:53:21

I can confirm that the SW is indeed experiencing heavy rain grin
Not much wind to speak of.

OhYouBadBadKitten Thu 04-Oct-12 07:50:34

Now where would the fun be in predicting gentle autumn mists and crisp nights Pascha? wink

updated warnings with heavy rain moving into the Sw tonight before spreading across England and Wales. Manchesters odd little warning has gone. I don't think the rainfall totals are going to be as dire as was first predicted but there could be gales across southern counties, so it might sound worse than it is. Still a lot of trees in leaf, so be prepared for toppled trees tomorrow in southern coastal areas.

Tomorrow daylight hours hopefully there should be quite a nice dry slot (but not guaranteed) before more rain moves in later. This rain could be heavy in the south but on Saturday, once the rain clears it should be ok though there are still considerable model differences and so I wouldn't count on the accuracy of that thought!

beginning of next week still grimola but perhaps a bit of an improvement after

Pascha Wed 03-Oct-12 19:33:55

You enjoy forecasting doomladen predictions don't you Kitten? I'm going to get wet Friday and Saturday in Kent regardless of which direction the rain goes arent I?

<goes to buy a liferaft>

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:30:52

btw, much of next week looks revolting.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:28:18

Critical to where the worst weather ends up will be where the front lies. A change of 50 miles north or south would make a corresponding difference to how far north/south the extent of the rain is. So I would continue to keep a close eye on the warnings.

NOAA discussion demonstrates how the models diverge in 48/72 hours time with one model saying it will go NNE and two others saying it will go westwards. So you can see how uncertain things are!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:13:32

updated warnings with some refinement.

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