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Need to keep an eye on the coming weekends weather (5th on)

(46 Posts)
OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 08:18:39

Mn lost my very detailed post. sad and now I'm short of time.

Look at the 120 hr Bracknell chart which shows ex-hurricane Nadine coming our way at the end of the week.

Now Nadine has been a really pesky hurricane. Very long lived. At one point she was downgraded and then reinvigorated to reform into a hurricane. She then strengthened when forecasts were for her to grow weaker. You can see her history Here

Now there's no guarantee that she will hit our shores and if she does the impact will depend on any other weather systems and troughs that she interacts with. she would be an extra-tropical low by that time.

IF she hits our shores AND the conditions are right, then it could be quite a stormy affair. STay tuned....

beachyhead Mon 01-Oct-12 08:20:20

Thank you - I love your posts, Public Service Kittengrin

mankyscotslass Mon 01-Oct-12 08:21:19

Thanks OYBBK.

I've been trying to keep an eye on Nadine, and I wondered what impact she would have on us.

Is she one of the longest lived storms on record?

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:34:18

Nadine is 20 days old today smile its making its way up the list of longest lived atlantic hurricanes but it wont top the list.

I'm going to have a look at the latest (you are welcome beachyhead smile )

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:49:35

bonkers nadine path is quite a good animation. Note that the cone has her eventually heading northwards and her itself not reaching our shores. I've two thoughts on that:

1)shes not really behaved herself so far, so I'm not sure that the prediction cone is as valuable as it usually is. So I'd take that predicted path with a big pinch of salt at the moment.
2)Looking at GFS, although it shows her staying away from us, she once again looks to spawn another low pressure (a bit like last weeks storm) early next week which could produce a serpate storm again if everything came together.

One to keep watching I think!

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:52:39

very good video from a few days ago talking about why nadine is being awkward.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:54:39

national hurricane centre seem to be counting nadine as 18 days old - theyve excluded the couple of days where she really lost strength.

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:55:34

(sorry above post should read 'the weather channel' not the national hurricane centre.)

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 14:57:18

You can also see on that video page, the range of different model solutions showing which way nadine might go (which is pretty much anywhere according to them!)

BackforGood Mon 01-Oct-12 15:05:04

Well, that'd be right - dh and all 3 of my dcs are on camp this weekend grin

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 15:09:31

If only the weather models could use data from' campers/walkers luck quotient' then I feel they would be much more accurate grin

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 19:49:38

Latest NOAA advisory
And the different model forecasts as to where nadine or remnants of her may end up are here which basically means she could go anywhere!

OhYouBadBadKitten Mon 01-Oct-12 19:59:03

GFS is now showing nadine interacting with another low (i think) and spawning low pressure systems a bit like a budding cell.
here look at GFS 500hpa from about thurs on.

GloriaSmud Mon 01-Oct-12 20:37:24

It's kind of fascinating watching that cell split off!

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 02-Oct-12 07:54:07

NOAA probability prediction about nadine a strength shows that on Saturday it is still most likely to be a tropical storm then it becomes absorbed by an extra tropical low I think. The probability cone they draw has it out over it the Atlantic Saturday still.

Interestingly GFS now shows a high pressure over us at the weekend, which would lead to dry settled conditions. So after a wet Friday for many and a wet start in the south on Saturday it now looks like a rather nice weekend with ex-nadine kept at bay. smile

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 02-Oct-12 19:38:25

oh looky smile met office warnings for heavy rain at the end of the week, (from thursday on) for heavy rain associated with subtropical air.

Not good of course that there is potential for flooding, but it is warm air that has moved up and around nadine.

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 02-Oct-12 19:49:48

Worth bearing in mind that there is still real uncertainty (again!) as to what will happen. GFS has swung hugely today....

Pascha Tue 02-Oct-12 20:03:36

Having fascinatedly looked through all those links in the last few minutes I can comfortably say I understand none of it blush, especially not the German bits. I try very very hard though. Does it basically mean its going to be a wet windy weekend?

OhYouBadBadKitten Tue 02-Oct-12 20:51:19

Possibly Pascha! The potential is certainly there though at the moment it looks more that Friday will be the wettest, but mostly for the southern half of the uk. GFS shows high pressure winning on Saturday with a nice sat/sun in store for many! Still all to play for I think!

redwhiteandblueeyedsusan Wed 03-Oct-12 00:08:56

oh yippidy doo! better find the wellies...

oh and bumpity bump

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 07:52:11

Still looks like Friday will be the wettest for the south. Further north it's a bit of a mixed bag though the rain may extend into the northern midlands. There could be some drier spell for the south as we move through friday before the rain returns later that day.

Unfortunately even though we get some clearer weather on sat/sun then a lot more wet weather is due to come on monday Incidentally some high rainfall totals across northern France too, particularly early next week.

I wouldn't try and look too closely at timings and how far north the rain will move just yet, the weather over the next few days is coming in pulses along a front - a battle between colder air from the north and the wet warm subtropical air and it depends on the exact position of that front but we are in for further unsettled and possibly v wet weather for a time to come. Make the most of any dry days!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:13:32

updated warnings with some refinement.

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:28:18

Critical to where the worst weather ends up will be where the front lies. A change of 50 miles north or south would make a corresponding difference to how far north/south the extent of the rain is. So I would continue to keep a close eye on the warnings.

NOAA discussion demonstrates how the models diverge in 48/72 hours time with one model saying it will go NNE and two others saying it will go westwards. So you can see how uncertain things are!

OhYouBadBadKitten Wed 03-Oct-12 13:30:52

btw, much of next week looks revolting.

Pascha Wed 03-Oct-12 19:33:55

You enjoy forecasting doomladen predictions don't you Kitten? I'm going to get wet Friday and Saturday in Kent regardless of which direction the rain goes arent I?

<goes to buy a liferaft>

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