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Tornado watch issued

(16 Posts)
OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 09:20:37

TORROhave issued a tornado watch and a convective discussion today for the interaction of a cold front with a large upper trough (creating an unstable and dynamic atmosphere) There may possibly be some tornadoes generated, also largish hail and cloud-ground lightning. Keep an eye on local weather conditions before heading off for out door activities. The cold front is showing up nicely on the met office radar

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 09:28:12


Ooh. Huh. I'm going to walk the dog in a minute. Might attach my wrist weights to his legs.

captainhastings Wed 29-Aug-12 09:40:40

My Internet is playing up , where is the warning for ?

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 09:45:54

storms are possible pretty much anywhere! possibility of tornadoes is probably in a swathe covering the SW/Wales up through the Wash, Lincolnshire E. Yorkshire.

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 09:49:11

ESTOFEX (the european storm forecast experiment) have issued a level 1 storm forecast for the possibly of tornadoes and severe windgusts too. They run their level 1 area into the SE, having moved it slightly south of the TORRO forecast.

NaturalNature Wed 29-Aug-12 10:26:06

Oh you lucky sods but hope they do no damage

If you see one and it isn't moving left or right, run because it's coming straight forward.

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 12:31:52

well, theres certainly a good rainfall rate associated with this front!

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 12:43:48

To my very amateur eyes the radar is beginning to look interesting around the home counties with bowing beginning to take place.

GloriaSmud Wed 29-Aug-12 12:53:00

A good line of lightning strikes can be seen here!

wfrances Wed 29-Aug-12 13:00:29

south wales-the sky has gone black and heavy thunder,some lightning.
dh is out delivering his mail so i hope theres no tornados coming.

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 13:44:08

nice Gloria smile
wfrances, even if we were guaranteed to have a widespread outbreak (which is rather unlikely!) your dh would be incredibly unlucky!
I cant remember the percentage accuracy of TORROs forecasts. It is quite reasonable. I'll have to try and dig the paper out.

brighthair Wed 29-Aug-12 13:45:59

Thunder here, very dark and lots of rain
Mind you, it is Lancashire!

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 14:09:48

ok found a TORRO paper from the international journal of meteorology Aug 2010 which says that the previous year tornado watches gave rise to one or more tornadoes in 19% of the watches and 41% occurred during a convective discussion, which is actually not a bad hit rate as they are very hard to forecast. There are lots of discussions as to when tornado watches should be issued - with the bias towards issuing tornado watches when significant tornadoes may occur and trying to envelope weak, short lived tornadoes into convective discussions, so that tornado watches are not overly issued and mean that people should perhaps pay attention when they are issued. There is still work to be done as always though smile in that year 46% were not forecast.

NaturalNature Wed 29-Aug-12 15:37:56

Severe downfall here, just flooded the carpark.

There's quite a few tornadoes each year in the uk, have heard of water spouts off the coast of wales too.

OhYoubadbadkitten Wed 29-Aug-12 18:23:17

another good place for waterspouts is off the south coast around the isle of Wight smile

Anyway reports of damage possibly caused by a tornado (will need to be investigated) at around 11:30am in Lymington today. Any mners from that area???

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