Storm discussions week beginning 12th Dec

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

apologies if you've seen this info on a couple of threads but this week does look rather concerning weather wise - with the possible for repeats of more severe gales and I think it would be helpful for people to have an idea of what may be coming up.

It is looking a pretty concerning scenario this week: The storm system Monday/Tuesday looks potent for first the SW and then the north. Then Friday. A long way off but at the moment the storm looks stronger than last weeks. At the moment Scotland looks most at risk but the track is still uncertain. All I can say is be prepared and if your property has suffered damage then I would do your utmost to effect repairs asap.

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

met office warnings for the first storm which rather misses the potential for issues further north but does perhaps begin to highlight the problems for the SW

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

For Friday's storm (which now seems to come onshore thursday night) wetterzentrale and look at '126'.
nasty doesnt describe it - need to hope that the models are wrong.

[whenPaschagotstuckupthechimney]

Oh that looks nasty. DH was onto shed roof earlier fixing the felt as it got ripped away in the winds the other night, hope he did a good job.

[blackeyedsanta]

oh heck!

[HowToLookGoodGlaikit]

I was hoping these models were wrong :( I have been watching another forum (not a weather one) and was hoping the OP over there was just fearmongering :(

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

morning all.
updated met office warnings which still seems to have the worst of the first storms winds in the south. Off to look at the models....

[megcleary]

Oh rats we are driving Norfolk to holyhead Friday night and sailing to Ireland @ 0240. Will it have blown out by then, will we get home for Christmas?

[mankyscotslass]

Oh no, will make sure my mum does the rest of her shopping at the start of the week.

Just how strong are we talking on Friday? I know it's still to far off really to be accurate, but say in comparison to The infamous Hurricane?

thanks for the heads up OYBBR.

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

balls. wetterzentrale is down. Need to find another place with charts. will be back to answer questions in a mo.

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

ok, found the TWO charts.

megcleary - sadly not as the forecasts stand at the moment. Timings will probably change somewhat as we come closer to the event so panic not yet.

manky - according to the wind chart (which I'm never quite sure how accurate it is, but it gives a bit of a ball park figure there is a brief spell of 75mph sustained winds - which could translate to 100mph+ gusts. Widespread sustained winds of 50-60mph which could translate to around 80mph gusts.

Now before we all run round like headless chickens tis worth remembering these are forecasts and it is most of a week away yet, hopefully things will change. In the mean time we can 'enjoy' monday/tuesdays weather with the met office predicting severe gale perhaps even storm force winds (which could be a good test of fence panels,wobbly trees and dodgy power lines.) over the south half of England up including Yorkshire and also Wales, much of Ireland and NI

[tak1ngchances]

OYBBR I am due to fly from Heathrow to Manchester on Tuesday morning at 9. Do you think flights will be grounded? Thanks for your advice

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

I think that the worst of the winds on Mon night into Tuesday will hit those bordering the channel. Fridays storm seems at the moment particularly bad around the Midlands and Northern England. I expect that will change though. scroll through the chart at the bottom to give you a vague idea. Those are peak gust speeds (which for friday seems to go off the chart )

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

tak1ng. I don't think so, though there may be some delays. It's amazing how strong a wind planes can take off and land in - as long as it's not a cross wind. at the moment at that time the charts show the winds would be westerly - south westerly and heathrows runways are oriented east-west.

[tak1ngchances]

OK. I suppose I should just expect a bumpy ride. There is always a lot of turbulence on that route, I don't know why. At least it's a short flight! (35 mins so I will survive)

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

Good luck!

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

Amazing how different models are showing where the worst of the winds are for tuesday - with one seeming to show them over EA I think.

[youarekidding]

Blimey. I am South (think solent) so experienced the hurricaine of 87. Not looking good is it?

[mankyscotslass]

Met office have altered their warning areas for Monday/Tuesday.

[blackeyedsanta]

presuming the winds on the french site are listed in km ph rather than miles!

dd could "read" the scale using the colours and went "thats bad" I think i agree.

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

Those warnings make a lot of sense now.

[mankyscotslass]

They have put the first warnings for Thursday on the site now - very widespread. (at the moment)

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

updated warnings now include the Thursday night/Friday storm.

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

Some of the latest models now bring friday's storm further south so that most of the uK would be covered in storm force winds. Please go away storm.

Just noticed our earlier x-post manky :)

[HowToLookGoodGlaikit]

Im in Angus, are any of the models showing the worse stuff up my way? Or could we escape the brunt of it this time?

[OhYouBadBadReindeer]

Some of the models are backing away from the doomsday type scenario on friday - to still bring gales, perhaps severe, but much less potent than the earlier runs today, so I wouldnt like to call it for Friday at the moment.

I think that for the Tuesday storm Glaikit you'll be away from the worst of it, with western areas and areas bordering the channel being at greatest risk. Far SE could see gusts greater than 70mph for a time Monday night. Could still be gusting to 50mph though in your area though.